294
FXUS63 KDTX 192021
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
321 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
- A LITTLE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND LOCALIZED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER AND HAS CONTINUED
TO SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD EROSION OF THIS FOG
LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW LIKELY LEADS TO A RE EXPANSION
OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE EASTERLY WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT, WHICH ADDS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL TO REFRAIN FROM AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER NW KANSAS INTO A
COMPACT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST AS IT LIFTS INTO SE WISCONSIN BY FRI
MORNING. RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS SRN MI
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A PRECEDING MID LEVEL VORTICITY
AXIS. BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER JET COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT AN
AXIS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GIVEN CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL END THE RAIN CHANCES EARLY-MID
FRIDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE AXIS OF COLD AIR. THE LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
THE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO UNSTABLE, THUS FOSTERING BETTER
MIXING. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF COLD AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
COMPACT NATURE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
A SOLID REGION OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FROM
GENERALLY OWOSSO TO FLINT TO LAPEER AND POINTS SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN
A GRADUAL INCREASE AMONGST THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. THIS AND IN COORDINATION WITH SOUNDING OFFICES WILL
JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. AFTER MORNING TEMPS IN THE 40S, TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FRI AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LITTLE TO
NONE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY, RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT IS SHOWN
HOLDING SOME DEGREE OF MID AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS LOWER MI
WITHIN A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW, WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE
DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST, AND HAS STARTED TO
MIX FOG ABOVE ONE MILE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW PERSISTS AND
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN BASIN FRIDAY MORNING,
LIFTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR VEER FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE LOW/FRONT REACHING SAGINAW BAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OPPORTUNITIES FOR GALES EXIST AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS
THROUGH FRIDAY, BOTH NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR
ITSELF. FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON, STABILITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW KEEP
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO KEEP GALE HEADLINES AS A WATCH
RATHER THAN UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE LOW HAS SLOWED
DOWN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE END TIME TO 00Z.
INCREASING CONCERN EXISTS FOR GALE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN LAKE ERIE
AND POSSIBLY UP TO LAKE ST CLAIR AS THE WARM SECTOR BOOSTS MIXING
DEPTHS IN THE MIDST OF A 50-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW THEN
WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PEELING OFF INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN PLAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
AVIATION...
REGION OF DENSE FOG REMAINS ROOTED OVER METRO DETROIT SHOWING LITTLE
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT THUS FAR TODAY. DUE TO THIS, WENT MUCH MORE
PESSIMISTIC ON VSBYS/CIGS THROUGH THE EARLY TONIGHT KEEPING LIFR
PREVAILING FOR PTK AND THE DETROIT TERMINALS UNLESS OBS BEGIN TO
SHOW OTHERWISE. TO THE NORTH, VFR CONDITIONS HAVE TAKEN HOLD FOR THE
AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS GRADUALLY WORKING INTO THE I-
69 CORRIDOR. NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS RAIN COULD CLIP MBS HOWEVER MAIN
RAIN CHANCES ARE FOCUSED FROM FNT SOUTH. SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW
CEILINGS BEHAVE THIS EVENING FOR THESE NORTHERN TERMINALS,
PARTICULARLY FNT, ONCE SHOWERS VACATE WITH MODELS ADAMANT IN LOWER
MVFR TO NEAR IFR CLOUD DEVELOPING, WHICH IS PARTIALLY SEEN IN
UPSTREAM OBS OVER NORTHERN IN. RENEWED WIDESPREAD FOG/MIST DEVELOP
FOR ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS INTO LOWER MI.
ATTENDANT OCCLUDED FRONT LIFTS THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDER CHANCE
BEFORE CLEARING MID FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY QUICKLY
FOLLOW DAYTIME FRIDAY WITH GUSTS 30-35KTS.
FOR DTW... LIFR FOG AND LOW CLOUD HAVE HELD FIRM SHOWING LITTLE
SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT. WHILE SOME IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITIES TO IFR
REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT SHOWERS CROSS, AMPLE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FAVORS CONTINUING LOW CLOUD THROUGH TONIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE TO HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW
1/2SM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.
* LOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....KDK
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