475
FXUS63 KDTX 192356
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
656 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TONIGHT.
- GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.
- A LITTLE COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR THIS WEEKEND WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW.
AVIATION
AFTER A PERIOD OF IMPROVED CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS, FOG IS SPREADING BACK IN FROM EAST TO WEST EARLY
THIS EVENING. FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH MODELS AND GUIDANCE IS NOT AS
STRONGLY SUGGESTIVE OF A LONG DURATION DENSE FOG EVENT LIKE LAST
NIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STARTS WORKING UP FROM THE SOUTH LATER
THIS EVENING WHICH COULD BRING SHOWERS WITH IT. THIS COULD SLIGHTLY
IMPROVE VSBYS AS IT DID TODAY AND LAST EVENING. REGARDLESS, LOOKS
LIKE IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT UNTIL AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SW LIFTS UP THROUGH LAKE MI AND PULLS AN
OCCLUDED WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION. THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD
OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ALSO A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
FOR DTW... LIFR FOG AND LOW CLOUD FILLED BACK IN THIS AFTERNOON AND
SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT WHEN RAIN COULD BEGIN.
CIGS LOOK TO REMAIN LIFR BUT COULD SEE AN IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
WITHIN THE RAIN. RAIN CHANCES CARRY THROUGH THE MORNING WITH AN
ADDITIONAL CHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE TO HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW
1/2SM THROUGH THIS EVENING.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 321 PM EST THU FEB 19 2026
DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE AND LOCALIZED REGION OF MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHEASTWARD
TRAJECTORY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STEEP MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH A
FEW REPORTS OF SMALL HAIL. THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS INFLUENCED BY THE VERY STABLE MARINE LAYER AND HAS CONTINUED
TO SEE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THERE HAS BEEN GOOD EROSION OF THIS FOG
LAYER ACROSS THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MAY
CONTINUE TO WORK EAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE NOCTURNAL
COOLING AND PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW LIKELY LEADS TO A RE EXPANSION
OF THE LOW STRATUS AND FOG. THE EASTERLY WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE NIGHT, WHICH ADDS ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO DENSE FOG
POTENTIAL TO REFRAIN FROM AN ADVISORY ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME.
RAPID AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE OVER NW KANSAS INTO A
COMPACT UPPER LOW IS FORECAST AS IT LIFTS INTO SE WISCONSIN BY FRI
MORNING. RESPECTABLE DEEP LAYER ASCENT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS SRN MI
OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING ALONG A PRECEDING MID LEVEL VORTICITY
AXIS. BROAD UPPER DIVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 150 KNOT
UPPER JET COMBINED WITH THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SUPPORT AN
AXIS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS TRAVERSING THE REGION FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. GIVEN CONTINUED STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MI DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY. THE MID LEVEL DRY SLOT WILL END THE RAIN CHANCES EARLY-MID
FRIDAY MORNING. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE AXIS OF COLD AIR. THE LACK OF MOISTURE DEPTH
WILL LIMIT THE CHANCES OF DIURNAL SHOWERS. AGGRESSIVE COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM LATE FRI MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL TRANSITION
THE STABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILE TO UNSTABLE, THUS FOSTERING BETTER
MIXING. THIS WILL BE MOST NOTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE DEPTH
OF COLD AIR AND DAYTIME MIXING STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE
COMPACT NATURE OF THE LOW TO MID LEVEL LOW WILL RESULT IN A STRONG
LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES. MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
A SOLID REGION OF 40 TO 50 KNOTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER FROM
GENERALLY OWOSSO TO FLINT TO LAPEER AND POINTS SOUTH. THERE HAS BEEN
A GRADUAL INCREASE AMONGST THE PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FOR WIND GUSTS
AROUND 45 MPH. THIS AND IN COORDINATION WITH SOUNDING OFFICES WILL
JUSTIFY A WIND ADVISORY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY. AFTER MORNING TEMPS IN THE 40S, TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE 30S
FRI AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA.
THE UPPER WAVE IS FORECAST TO SHEAR APART AS IT SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
TROUGHING ALONG A LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS ACROSS CENTRAL
MICHIGAN WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SNOW SHOWER CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.
MARGINALLY COLD TEMPS IN THE 30S WILL KEEP ACCUMULATIONS LITTLE TO
NONE. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT OF A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST SUNDAY, RESPECTABLE AGREEMENT IS SHOWN
HOLDING SOME DEGREE OF MID AND LOW LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS LOWER MI
WITHIN A REGION OF DEEP MOISTURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A GOOD CHANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW, WITH SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
DRIER AIR IS ATTEMPTING TO WORK IN FROM THE WEST, AND HAS STARTED TO
MIX FOG ABOVE ONE MILE THIS AFTERNOON. EAST FLOW PERSISTS AND
STRENGTHENS TONIGHT AS THE NEXT LOW LIFTS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THE LOW REACHES THE LAKE MICHIGAN BASIN FRIDAY MORNING,
LIFTING AN OCCLUDED FRONT AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS. WINDS IN THE WARM SECTOR VEER FROM THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHWEST, WITH THE LOW/FRONT REACHING SAGINAW BAY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. OPPORTUNITIES FOR GALES EXIST AS THIS SYSTEM WORKS
THROUGH FRIDAY, BOTH NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT AND IN THE WARM SECTOR
ITSELF. FOR NORTHERN LAKE HURON, STABILITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW KEEP
ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TO KEEP GALE HEADLINES AS A WATCH
RATHER THAN UPGRADING TO A WARNING AT THIS TIME. THE LOW HAS SLOWED
DOWN IN RECENT MODEL RUNS, SO OPTED TO EXTEND THE END TIME TO 00Z.
INCREASING CONCERN EXISTS FOR GALE POTENTIAL FOR WESTERN LAKE ERIE
AND POSSIBLY UP TO LAKE ST CLAIR AS THE WARM SECTOR BOOSTS MIXING
DEPTHS IN THE MIDST OF A 50-55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET. THE LOW THEN
WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PEELING OFF INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN PLAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR MIZ060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM 4 AM EST FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR LHZ361-
362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......MV
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