225
FXUS63 KDTX 200826
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
326 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 TODAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY, EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
MELTING SNOWFLAKES BY THIS EVENING.
- SEASONABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH OF
SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS MINIMIZING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. MORNING
RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS POCKETS OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN, COINCIDENT WITH THE LEAD WARM FRONT. IN THE ABSENCE
OF APPRECIABLE ELEVATED CAPE (75 J/KG OR LESS) OR MID-LEVEL COOLING,
EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN UNLIKELY, BUT A NON-ZERO CHANCE
PERSISTS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY
ADVANCING TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY, WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO
A MIDDAY PAUSE IN LOCAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MID-LATE MORNING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR, BEFORE THE
SYSTEM'S OCCLUSION PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS THEN PROVIDES THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE TEMPERATURES EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND ONCE COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD EMERGE OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
VARIANCE EXISTS IN THE POSITION OF THIS REFLECTION, WHICH IMPACTS
THE LOCATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION
RESPONSES RELATED TO WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND AGGREGATE MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR A FEW FLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES CURRENTLY SHOW THE
COLDEST AIR LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING INITIAL FLAKES
FURTHER SOUTH.
REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69,
PROBABILITIES TO MEET GUST THRESHOLDS (45+ MPH) HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS MIXING DEPTHS STRUGGLE TO EXTEND INTO THE 45+ KNOT
LLJ CORE, BY MIDDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES QUICKLY STEEPEN UPON
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATYPICAL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION. THIS
SUGGESTS A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE EARLIER
IN THE ADVISORY PERIOD. THEN THE 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX LLJ WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS OCCUPYING THE 2-
3 KFT AGL LAYER. MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE SHRINKING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT THIS TRANSITION PERIOD OFFERS THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO REACH
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS.
THE STEERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING WINDS LOCALLY, VEERING ZONALLY. PERSISTENT TROUGHING
PRODUCES OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY, MORE SO FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES SUNDAY WITH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
SNOW. GRADUAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER A 24-
30 HOUR WINDOW (06Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY). SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNLOCKS
AND BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK TIME-FRAME
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES ARISE FOR SNOW
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, DRAWING A WARM
FRONT NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR. MIXING DEPTHS ALONG
THE SHORELINE INCREASE AS THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTH, LEADING TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS CLOSE TO LAND. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A
RESULT. THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
STABILITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO GENERATE ONLY MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLDS MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR, A DECISION
TO UPGRADE OR CANCEL THE WATCH WILL BE MADE. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE LOW
THEN WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PEELING OFF INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN PLAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
AVIATION...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NORTHWARD FROM CENTRAL IL TO LAKE MI
IS PULLING A WARM FRONT UP THROUGH THE REGION THIS MORNING BRINGING
SOME LOW CHANCES OF RAIN DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE AREAS OF SHOWERS WEAKENING WHILE THEY APPROACH, WILL GO
WITH A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS TO COVER IT. STILL A NON-ZERO CHANCE OF
A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE ESPECIALLY AROUND DETROIT BUT EVENING THE
FEW STRIKES SEEN OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS HAVE BECOME FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THE RAIN IS BRINGING AN END TO THE PERSISTENT DENSE FOG AND
MOST SITES ARE NOW MVFR AND MAY ONLY DIP SLIGHTLY WITHIN THE
SHOWERS. SHOULD BE A LULL IN ACTIVITY THIS MORNING BEFORE COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND WESTERLY WINDS WITH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE BRING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LEAN TOWARD RAIN AT THIS POINT
BUT TEMPS WILL BE COLD ALOFT WHICH COULD MIX IN SOME SNOW FLAKES,
BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING IN THE SNOW FLAKE PRODUCTION LAYER SO WILL
HOLD OFF AT THIS POINT. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 40 KNOTS FROM FNT
SOUTHWARD, AND UP TO 30 KNOTS FOR MBS. WIND AND COOLER TEMPS WILL
ALLOW CIGS TO MAINLY STAY AROUND 2KFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR DTW... RAIN CHANCES TO START THE FORECAST AND AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRAY LIGHTNING STRIKE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING BUT
COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAF.
ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW WET
FLAKES MIXING IN. WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 40 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILING AOB 200 FT AND/OR VISIBILITY BELOW 1/2SM THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF ALL RAIN.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
MIZ060>062-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM 10 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LEZ444.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....DRK
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