030
FXUS63 KDTX 201423
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
923 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 TODAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY, EVENTUALLY MIXING WITH
MELTING SNOWFLAKES BY THIS EVENING.
- SEASONABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR AROUND AN INCH
OF SNOW BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY, WITH WIND CHILLS MINIMIZING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
UPDATE
THE OCCLUDED FRONT IS QUICKLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA FROM SW TO
NE, MARKED BY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS ALREADY BRIEFLY SURPASSING 40 MPH
IN ADRIAN, ANN ARBOR, JACKSON, TOLEDO, MONROE, AND LANSING. THIS
INITIAL POP OF WIND IS BEING DRIVEN BY STRONG POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE
THAT WILL BE TRANSIENT AT ANY LOCATION THIS MORNING WITH LATE
MORNING WIND MAINLY SETTLING INTO THE 30 MPH RANGE. AS THE SURFACE
LOW - CURRENTLY JUST WEST OF MANISTEE - TRACKS INTO NORTHERN LOWER
MI, ITS PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHERN LOWER MI AND
INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING DEPTH WITHIN THE ENSUING COLD
ADVECTION WILL ATTEMPT TO TAP INTO 50 KT FLOW THAT ARRIVES INTO THE
2500-3500 KFT AGL LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MIXING DEPTH WILL BE DAMPENED BY THE ARRIVAL OF SYSTEM WRAP-AROUND
MOISTURE, WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE BULK OF THE HIGHER MAGNITUDE
ELEVATED. STILL, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO SUPPORT PEAK
GUSTS OF NEAR 45 MPH AT TIMES TODAY, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE DURING
THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. HREF AND RRFS BOTH INDICATE 60%
PROBABILITY TO EXCEED 45 MPH AND ABOUT 20% TO EXCEED 50 MPH. NO
CHANGES TO THE WIND ADVISORY WHICH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR
MUCH OF SE MI.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 612 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
AVIATION...
INBOUND FRONTAL BOUNDARY ATTENDANT TO LOW PRESSURE LIFTING ACROSS
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL SWEEP THROUGH BETWEEN 13Z AND 15Z. THIS
WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY, WHILE EFFECTIVELY
LIFTING REMAINING FOG AND LIFR STRATUS. FRONTAL PASSAGE OFFERS A
BRIEF WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. STEADY INCREASE IN
POST-FRONTAL WIND GUST MAGNITUDE WITH TIME INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
PEAKING IN EXCESS OF 35 KNOTS FROM PTK SOUTHWARD. SECONDARY PERIOD
OF SHOWER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE WITHIN EXPANSIVE MVFR STRATUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS COLD AIR ADVECTION STRENGTHENS BENEATH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL LOW. REDUCTION IN FREEZING LEVEL APPEARS
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR SOME MELTING SNOW TO MIX IN WITH ANY
ACTIVITY. MOIST PROFILE MAINTAINS EXTENSIVE STRATUS AT MVFR TONIGHT,
WITH SOME LINGERING GUSTINESS TO SOUTHWEST WIND.
FOR DTW...MID MORNING VERY LOW STRATUS/FOG WILL LIFT WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AFTER 14Z. POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW WET SNOWFLAKES TO
MIX IN WITH A LIGHT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR PTYPE OF MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 326 AM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE EJECTS FROM THE EASTERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
THIS MORNING, BRINGING WITH IT ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS. MORNING
RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS POCKETS OF SHOWERS LIFTING OUT OF SOUTHWEST
LOWER MICHIGAN, COINCIDENT WITH THE LEAD WARM FRONT. IN THE ABSENCE
OF APPRECIABLE ELEVATED CAPE (75 J/KG OR LESS) OR MID-LEVEL COOLING,
EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS REMAIN UNLIKELY, BUT A NON-ZERO CHANCE
PERSISTS.
GOES WATER VAPOR CHANNELS SHOW THE MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT ALREADY
ADVANCING TOWARD THE WABASH RIVER VALLEY, WHICH EVENTUALLY LEADS TO
A MIDDAY PAUSE IN LOCAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK MID-LATE MORNING WITHIN THE NARROW WARM SECTOR, BEFORE THE
SYSTEM'S OCCLUSION PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS THEN PROVIDES THE NEXT
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHILE TEMPERATURES EXHIBIT A NON-DIURNAL COOLING TREND ONCE COLD
ADVECTION COMMENCES.
MODEL DATA SUGGESTS A SECONDARY SURFACE LOW SHOULD EMERGE OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OCCLUDED BOUNDARY.
VARIANCE EXISTS IN THE POSITION OF THIS REFLECTION, WHICH IMPACTS
THE LOCATION OF STRONGER GRADIENT WINDS AND SUBSEQUENT PRECIPITATION
RESPONSES RELATED TO WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ADVECTION. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND AGGREGATE MODEL BLENDS SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME CHANCE
FOR A FEW FLAKES TO MIX IN WITH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING ROUND OF LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. 850 MB TEMPERATURE PROFILES CURRENTLY SHOW THE
COLDEST AIR LIFTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FAVORING INITIAL FLAKES
FURTHER SOUTH.
REGARDING THE WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69,
PROBABILITIES TO MEET GUST THRESHOLDS (45+ MPH) HAVE TRENDED
SLIGHTLY LOWER AS MIXING DEPTHS STRUGGLE TO EXTEND INTO THE 45+ KNOT
LLJ CORE, BY MIDDAY. BOUNDARY-LAYER LAPSE RATES QUICKLY STEEPEN UPON
SHIFTING FROM SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATYPICAL TRANSITION TO COLD ADVECTION. THIS
SUGGESTS A HIGHER FREQUENCY OF GUSTS IN THE 30-40 MPH RANGE EARLIER
IN THE ADVISORY PERIOD. THEN THE 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
SLIDES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON, DISPLACED SLIGHTLY
DOWNSTREAM OF THE MAX LLJ WINDS APPROACHING 50 KNOTS OCCUPYING THE 2-
3 KFT AGL LAYER. MIXING DEPTHS WILL BE SHRINKING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, BUT THIS TRANSITION PERIOD OFFERS THE HIGHEST CHANCE TO REACH
CRITERIA WIND GUSTS.
THE STEERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES OVER LAKE HURON TONIGHT
WITH DECREASING WINDS LOCALLY, VEERING ZONALLY. PERSISTENT TROUGHING
PRODUCES OPPORTUNITIES FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES LATE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY, MORE SO FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES
SETTLE BACK TOWARD SEASONAL NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
SYSTEM EMERGES SUNDAY WITH THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE AS
SNOW. GRADUAL ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE OVER A 24-
30 HOUR WINDOW (06Z SUNDAY TO 06Z MONDAY). SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNLOCKS
AND BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED DURING THE EARLY TO MID-WEEK TIME-FRAME
WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES. ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES ARISE FOR SNOW
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A WINTRY MIX LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK
MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE REACHES LAKE MICHIGAN THIS MORNING, DRAWING A WARM
FRONT NORTH INTO LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST CLAIR. MIXING DEPTHS ALONG
THE SHORELINE INCREASE AS THE WARM SECTOR LIFTS NORTH, LEADING TO
GALE FORCE GUSTS CLOSE TO LAND. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED AS A
RESULT. THE NORTHERN LAKE HURON GALE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT AS
STABILITY AND TRACK OF THE LOW CONTINUE TO GENERATE ONLY MARGINAL
POTENTIAL TO REACH WARNING THRESHOLDS MAINLY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ONCE OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS BECOME MORE CLEAR, A DECISION
TO UPGRADE OR CANCEL THE WATCH WILL BE MADE. OTHERWISE, WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH. THE LOW
THEN WEAKENS FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE PEELING OFF INTO ONTARIO BY SATURDAY
MORNING. CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHILE
ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES ALOFT KEEP WINTRY PRECIPITATION IN PLAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
UPDATE.......TF
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
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