328
FXUS63 KDTX 202041
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
341 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG/SOUTH OF I-69 TODAY FOR
SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS TO 45 MPH.
- SEASONABLY COOLER THIS WEEKEND WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND ON SUNDAY. AN INCH TO LOCALIZED 2 INCHES IS MOST LIKELY.
- COLD MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH WIND CHILL IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AT TIMES.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE HAS MIGRATED OVER NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH KDTX
VAD WIND PROFILE STARTING TO SAMPLE 50 KT WITHIN ITS LLJ THE PAST
HOUR. ABUNDANT STRATUS IS LIMITING MIXING DEPTHS WHICH HAS DAMPENED
THE SURFACE WIND RESPONSE COMPARED TO EARLIER TODAY, BUT WILL HOLD ON
TO THE WIND ADVISORY AS THE LLJ PEAKS OVERHEAD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. WIND MAGNITUDE WILL THEN EASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS MIXING
DEPTHS SHRINK AND THE LLJ DEPARTS EAST. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT AS THE LOW STALLS OVER LAKE HURON, SUPPORTIVE
OF GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 35 MPH RANGE MUCH OF THE NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM TO PRODUCE POCKETS OF
LIGHT RAIN, DRIZZLE, AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THIS EVENING. SOUTHERN
AREAS SHOULD TREND DRY OVERNIGHT, BUT THE THUMB AND TRI-CITIES HAVE A
20 TO 30% CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO GRASSY SURFACES.
COMPLEX UPPER AIR PATTERN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WITH AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE OVER ONTARIO SQUEEZED BETWEEN TROUGHING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS TODAY'S UPPER LOW SHEARS OUT AND DEPARTS
INTO NEW ENGLAND, THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS LEFT WITHIN A RELATIVE
COL WHICH ALLOWS INVERTED SFC-700MB TROUGHING TO BE ORPHANED OFF
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. COOL, CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS
THE STATE WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS REMAINING PERVASIVE. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S, THEN SUNDAY WILL BE A RETURN TO TYPICAL MID FEBRUARY WITH LOWER
TO MID 30S.
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL DIG FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND, DISLODGING THE RESIDENT TROUGHING
WHILE INDUCING LOCALIZED HEIGHT FALLS AND COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE
STATE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. A LOBE OF THE SFC TROUGH IS
MODELED TO SINK SOUTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING AND BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF SE MI. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30
WILL ALLOW FOR MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OF AROUND AN INCH BEFORE NOON.
COVERAGE OF SNOW WILL DECREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT ADDITIONAL
LOBES OF VORTICITY ALOFT WITH OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LOCALIZED
INTERVALS OF SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY EVENING. FRESH COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE MORNING TROUGH WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY INTERSECTING THE DGZ, WITH MODELS
ALSO INDICATING POCKETS OF 900-800MB OMEGA AS WELL. SO SOME LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH QUICK LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS OF AN ADDITIONAL INCH
WHERE ANY OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES TREND DOWNWARD FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITHIN
CONTINUED COOL CYCLONIC FLOW, BUT CHANCES FOR SNOW LOOK SLIM AS
HEIGHT RISES COMMENCE. THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE
PERIOD WITH SEVERAL WINDOWS FOR ADDITIONAL PRECIP. THE FIRST OCCURS
LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN A QUICK HITTING WARM ADVECTION
/ ISENTROPIC ASCENT SNOW EVENT IS NOTED IN THE BULK OF GUIDANCE.
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH TYPE OF EVENT WITH
DETAILS TO BE GLEANED IN FURTHER FORECAST CYCLES. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN IN THE VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WITH MUCH HIGHER MODEL SPREAD INSTILLING LOW CONFIDENCE ON
SPECIFICS, BUT ADDITIONAL PRECIP AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE
ONGOING GALE WARNINGS FOR LAKE ST CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE REMAIN
UNCHANGED AS SOUTHWEST WINDS GUST TO 35-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE
EVENING. AN OCCLUDED FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR STURGEON POINT,
STEERING THE SURFACE LOW INTO NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY THIS
EVENING. ARRIVAL OF THE LOW RELAXES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENOUGH TO
TO REDUCE WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS BELOW HEADLINE THRESHOLDS. POLEWARD
OF THE FRONT, FLOW IS ENE BUT WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF THE LOW WHICH SHOULD ALSO BRIEFLY REDUCE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TONIGHT. BY SATURDAY MORNING, NORTHWEST FLOW INLAND AND
NORTHEAST FLOW OVER WATER SETS UP A CONVERGENCE AXIS THAT UTILIZES
THE LAKE SUPERIOR MOISTURE CONNECTION TO PRODUCE BAND OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW THAT STRETCHES INTO NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON. AS THE LOW
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DEPARTS INTO ONTARIO SUNDAY, THIS AXIS
COMBINES WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO EXPAND SNOW SHOWER
COVERAGE SOUTH INTO THE REST OF THE WATERWAYS. LACK OF GUST
POTENTIAL LIMITS CONCERNS FOR SNOW SQUALLS, ALTHOUGH INTENSE BURSTS
OF SNOW WITHIN THE BAND WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. WINDS INCREASE AGAIN
ON MONDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH A BRIEF SHIFT TO HIGH
PRESSURE EARLY WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST FRI FEB 20 2026
AVIATION...
WESTERLY GRADIENT FLOW IS IN PLACE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINDS AT MANY LOCATIONS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS.
RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST 5.0 KFT AGL HAS LIMITED
MIXING DEPTHS TODAY AND SUSPECT THAT WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
KNOTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ISOLATED. BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE
DUE TO HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS WILL SUPPORT SOME -RASN THIS
AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 30S. STRONG MODEL
SIGNAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE PERIOD.
FOR DTW...WEST WIND OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH SOME SMALL WINDOW YET FOR
40 KNOT GUSTS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR -RASN THIS AFTERNOON. NO
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF MELTING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MIZ060>062-068>070-
075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-441-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....CB
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