293
FXUS63 KDTX 210853
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
353 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS AT TIMES TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-69.
- SNOWFALL SUNDAY WITH AROUND AN INCH ON THE GROUND BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
- HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK MONDAY, AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY, WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
- ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SNOWFALL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER TO RAIN WITH TIME ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
LOTS OF MOVING PARTS TO CONTEND WITH OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS,
STARTING WITH AN OCCLUDED LOW STALLED OVER LAKE HURON. THIS HAS
FUNCTIONED TO REINFORCE THE EXISTING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT,
SUSTAINING BLUSTERY ZONAL WINDS. IT HAS ALSO PROVIDED A LINK TO AN
ELONGATED AXIS OF INVERTED TROUGHING, COINCIDENT WITH A NARROW (AND
SHRINKING) CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. THE CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDS WELL INTO MANITOBA WHERE A BROADER UPSTREAM CIRCULATION
RESIDES. EXPECT CONTINUED LIGHT SNOW PRODUCTION INTO PORTIONS OF
LOWER MICHIGAN, MAINLY FOR THE TRI-CITIES AND THUMB AREAS. IN THE
ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT ADJUSTMENTS, THIS
PERIODIC LIGHT SNOWFALL SHOULD LINGER THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED SINCE TEMPERATURES RISE BACK
ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK DURING THE MID-MORNING HOURS. FOR THE REST
OF THE FORECAST AREA, DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED UNTIL A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SUBTROPICAL JET REACHES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOWFALL BROADENS IN RESPONSE LATE TONIGHT
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE STATIONARY LOW EVENTUALLY EXITS ON SUNDAY AS CENTRAL PRESSURE
FILLS IN TO APPROXIMATELY 1015 MB (FROM 1003 MB AT 06Z TODAY). CVA
SUPPORTS A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED ASCENT OVER THE REGION WHICH LEADS TO
A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING LIGHT SNOWFALL. SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE
HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO SURFACE-LAYER FLUXES. COLDER AIR TRIES TO FILTER
IN AS FLOW VEERS NORTHWESTERLY, MARKED BY A DROP IN 850 MB
TEMPERATURES TO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE-DIGITS (CELSIUS). UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE DIURNAL CURVE SUNDAY GIVEN A SHARP E-W THERMAL
GRADIENT OVER LOWER MICHIGAN. THE COLDER AIR SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE SINCE THE HURON LOW TRAPS THE MILDER
AIRMASS LATER INTO THE DAY. THIS LEADS TO A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY LEADING TO SOME DEGREE OF MELTING
THAT CUTS INTO TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS. ASSUMING A FROZEN SURFACE, MOST
LOCATIONS SHOULD END UP WITH 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES OF SNOWFALL BY SUNDAY
EVENING. HOWEVER, ANY WELL-TRAVELED SURFACES WILL BE SUBJECT TO
MELTING SHOULD HIGHS RISE INTO THE MID, IF NOT UPPER, 30S. ELEVATED
AND GRASSY SURFACES, ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ACCUMULATE A BASE COATING
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, POSSESS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD FOR OPTIMAL
ACCUMULATION EFFICIENCY. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW GETS ABSORBED INTO A
NOR'EASTER SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GRADIENT CONSTRICTS AND COLD
ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. DECREASING LAKE ICE AND INCREASING MIXING
DEPTHS FAVOR A BIT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE THUMB.
SEASONABLY CHILLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THERMAL TROUGHING CENTERS
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. HIGHS COULD STRUGGLE TO BREAK ABOVE THE
FREEZING MARK MONDAY, AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY, WITH MORNING WIND CHILLS
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. NNW FLOW LENDS SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL
OFF LAKE HURON MONDAY, MAINLY FOR HURON COUNTY. SYNOPTIC SNOWFALL
ARRIVES LATE TUESDAY AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING. A RAPIDLY
MOVING EMBEDDED NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN
JET OVER THE PLAINS TUESDAY, LEADING TO QUICK CYCLOGENESIS ATOP THE
UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW-LEVELS LOOK TO SATURATE EARLY WITH WEAK
ASCENT, BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAXIMIZES AND SATURATES
THE FULL COLUMN WITH A JUMP IN UVVS. MOST OF THE SNOWFALL SHOULD
OCCUR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CHANGE OVER TO RAIN WITH TIME ON WEDNESDAY AS
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER LAKE HURON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
CONTINUING TO RISE THROUGH THE MORNING AS THE LOW FILLS IN. CYCLONIC
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE, CHARACTERIZED BY NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON THAT BECOMES INCREASINGLY WESTERLY INLAND AND
TOWARD LAKE ERIE. THE RESULTING CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL DIRECT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW OVER LAKE HURON THROUGH THE DAY, WITH POTENTIAL FOR
INTENSE BURSTS OF SNOW IN BANDED STRUCTURES. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER
GRADUALLY EASES EASTWARD TO MERGE WITH A COASTAL ATLANTIC LOW
SUNDAY, DRAWING THE CONVERGENCE AXIS SOUTH WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO EXPAND SNOW CHANCES
SOUTH INTO ALL MARINE ZONES. THE GREAT LAKES THEN RESIDE IN A
TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE PLAINS, WHICH BOOSTS SUSTAINED NORTHERLY WINDS TO 25-30
KNOTS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY
FOR MARINE HEADLINES AS WINDS AND WAVES BECOME ELEVATED. VERY BRIEF
PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT QUICK
MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1201 AM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
AVIATION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STALLED OVER NORTHERN LOWER WILL KEEP ELEVATED
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN MI THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. GUSTS HAVE
DECREASED TO AROUND 25 KNOTS AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIGHTLY WEAKEN
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. COLD AIRMASS WILL KEEP A SOLID MVFR
CLOUD DECK THROUGH SATURDAY. MBS IS BEING IMPACTED BY A WEAK BAND OF
SNOW PIVOTING AROUND THE LOW TO THE NORTH. SHOULD BE LIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.FLURRIES COULD
PERSIST UP THERE THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT BUT WE'LL SEE WHERE
THE BAND SETS UP. LIGHTER WESTERLY WINDS TODAY WITH STRATUS HOLDING
THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DTW...LIGHT SNOW WILL WORK BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, MAINLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL INTRODUCE A LOW END SNOW MENTION TOWARD THE END
OF THE FORECAST. OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE FORECAST.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....DRK
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