547
FXUS63 KDTX 211954
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
254 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN
A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES FOR MOST AREAS.
- BRISK ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND MORNING WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE MI.
DISCUSSION
AN ELONGATED TROUGH REMAINS DRAPED FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH WIDESPREAD STRATUS
ENVELOPING THE AREA WITHIN COOL CYCLONIC FLOW. OCCASIONAL FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE THUMB BUT GENERALLY DRY AND BENIGN CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING AS WE SIT BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDWEST WILL RESULT IN A DEEPENING
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TOMORROW AND MONDAY. MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE BEGINS TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AS THIS
TROUGH DEVELOPS, WITH A BROAD CIRCULATION OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
PRODUCING MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT THAT AIDS IN SEEDING WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOWFALL LATER THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY.
MODEL SIGNAL CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT TWO PRIMARY WINDOWS FOR MINOR
ACCUMULATIONS. THE FIRST OCCURS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING
AS WEAK ASCENT FOCUSES AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE TROUGH THAT
SWINGS SOUTH FROM THE STALLED LOW OVER LAKE HURON. FLUFFY
ACCUMULATIONS DURING THIS WINDOW ARE LIKELY TO BE AROUND A HALF INCH
TO 1 INCH AS TEMPS RESIDE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AS TEMPS RISE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING, THEN HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION COMES
DURING THE EVENING WITHIN A MORE SHOWERY PATTERN. THIS EMERGES AS
COLD ADVECTION ENSUES BEHIND THE TROUGH, WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK INSTABILITY. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS WINDOW MAY INITIALLY BE ABOVE FREEZING BUT DEW POINTS IN THE
20S SHOULD ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MINOR ACCUMULATIONS WHERE SHOWERS
OCCUR. THERE IS ABOUT A 25% PROBABILITY IN THE 12Z HREF AND REFS
ENSEMBLES FOR 6-HOUR SNOWFALL TOTALS TO EXCEED 1 INCH - MAINLY NORTH
AND WEST OF METRO DETROIT.
THE STALLED LAKE HURON LOW WILL GET ABSORBED INTO A NOR'EASTER
SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH REMNANT TROUGHING/BANDING SINKING SOUTH TO
MAINTAIN A 30 TO 50% CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE THUMB THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE REST OF
MONDAY AS A TIGHT GRADIENT FORMS BETWEEN THE STRENGTHENING EAST
COAST SYSTEM AND A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST. TEMPS HOLD IN THE TEENS
AND 20S MONDAY WITH WIND CHILL DIPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS MONDAY
MORNING AND AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING. LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT ACCUMULATIONS ARE UNLIKELY DURING THIS PERIOD.
THE THERMAL TROUGH DEPARTS ON TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHT REBOUND
IN TEMPS. A WAVE ON THE NOSE OF AN UPPER JET STREAK WILL ENGAGE WITH
THE ELEVATED FRONTAL SLOPE LATE TUESDAY TO PRODUCE A CORRIDOR OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT DRIVEN SNOWFALL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LIGHT SNOW
MAY DEVELOP AS EARLY AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE MAIN FORCING
COINCIDENT WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOKS TO SLIDE
THROUGH FROM EVENING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
A FAIR AMOUNT OF VARIANCE WITH NORTH-SOUTH PLACEMENT OF THE FORCING,
BUT THE SETUP FAVORS A GRADIENT IN QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM SW
TO NE. NBM QMD MEAN QPF CURRENTLY RANGES BETWEEN 0.10" SOUTHWEST TO
AROUND 0.25" NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN A 1
TO 3" TYPE SNOWFALL EVENT, HOWEVER DETAILS IN STORM TRACK AND
THERMAL PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS THE UPPER JET STREAK IS
BETTER SAMPLED SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A SECONDARY WAVE PASSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
WHICH MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP, HOWEVER ANY PRECIP LOOKS
TO TREND TO LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX AS TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY
TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING BEHIND THE TUESDAY NIGHT SYSTEM. THERE IS
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH DETERMINISTIC
AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWCASING LARGE SPREAD IN SYSTEM PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH. THIS DOES LOOK LIKE A MORE DYNAMIC SYSTEM WHICH WOULD
POSE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIP.
MARINE
WEAK LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION HOLDS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON
AND WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PRESSURE
TROUGH HAS LED TO A BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW, PRIMARILY NORTH OF
STURGEON POINT AT ISSUANCE. SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES AS WELL LATE TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE SLIDES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. EVENTUALLY THE SURFACE
LOW GETS DRAWN INTO THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, RELEASING THE CONVERGENCE AXIS SOUTH TO CAUSE A
SECONDARY UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS. THE
STRONG LOW TO OUR EAST AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS
ESTABLISH A TIGHT GRADIENT OVERHEAD, INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
SUSTAIND WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
NOT SEEING A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SIGNAL, SO GUST POTENTIAL LOOKS
LIKE IT WILL STAY CAPPED AOB 35 KNOTS. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED ALONG
THE SHORELINE FOR GUSTS OF 30+ KNOTS AND ELEVATED WAVES IN THE ICE-
FREE WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY BEFORE A
CLIPPER ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1250 PM EST SAT FEB 21 2026
AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATUS DECK WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD AS THE STALLED LOW PRESSURE OVER LAKE HURON
MAINTAINS THE MOIST WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS MICHIGAN. WIND
SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND 10-15 KNOTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS. LIGHT SNOW BEGINS TO ENTER THE PICTURE
TONIGHT ACROSS MBS FIRST WHERE NEARBY SNOW SHOWERS MAY EVENTUALLY
REACH THE TRI-CITIES. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN START TIME BETWEEN THE 03Z
TO 10Z TIME FRAME. THERE IS GREATER CONFIDENCE FOR GREATER SNOWFALL
INTENSITY TO FILL IN BETWEEN 10-12Z AND INTO EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE BEING FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW.
WINDS TURN MORE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR DTW...POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW INCREASES DURING THE EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF SNOW TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....AA
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