098
FXUS63 KDTX 220827
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
327 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION BETWEEN A HALF INCH AND 2 INCHES MOST AREAS. LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
- BRISK ON MONDAY WITH TEMPS BELOW FREEZING AND MORNING WIND CHILL
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, ONLY RISING TO THE TEENS IN THE AFTERNOON.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEVERAL INCHES POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF SE MI.
DISCUSSION
A BROADER, LOOSELY ORGANIZED REGION OF LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO GOVERN CONDITIONS THRU THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
BOUTS OF MORE ORGANIZED UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION TIED TO A COMBINATION
OF PERIODIC CVA AND SMALLER SCALE CONVERGENCE ENGAGING A STEEP LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODIC LIGHT SNOW
OR SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPMENT THRU THIS TIME. A MORE FOCUSED REGION OF
ASCENT ANCHORED ALONG AN EASTWARD PROPAGATING VORT MAX EVIDENT
TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER MI EARLY THIS MORNING. CORRESPONDING
INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW PARTICULARLY
ALONG/SOUTH OF M-59 WITH THIS FEATURE. SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND
ENVIRONMENT GOING FORWARD TODAY THROUGHOUT THE AREA AS INTERVALS OF
SUPER SATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WITHIN A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
PROFILE CONTRIBUTE TO GENERALLY LIGHT INTENSITY SNOW PRODUCTION,
WITH THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY BEING DURATION OF MEANINGFUL ACTIVITY AT
ANY ONE LOCATION. THERE REMAINS A SIGNAL FOR A BRIEF INCREASE IN
FORCING THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH CURRENTLY FIXATED OVER
NORTHERN LAKE HURON SHEARS BACK SOUTHWARD. GIVEN THE UNDERLYING
PROFILE, THIS WOULD OFFER AN OPPORTUNITY FOR POCKETS OF HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW SHOWERS TO MATERIALIZE WITHIN ANY ENHANCED REGIONS OF
CONVERGENCE. MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS THIS MORNING
ACROSS METRO DETROIT WHERE A MORE FLUFFY CHARACTER OF SNOW EXISTS.
EFFICIENCY MAY PROVE MORE LACKLUSTER ON PAVED SURFACES AS DAYTIME
HEATING WORKS TO LIFT TEMPERATURES TO/JUST ABOVE FREEZING INTO THE
AFTERNOON, WHILE SNOWFALL RATE REMAINS MANAGEABLE. GREATER ACCUM
POTENTIAL AGAIN POST-SUNSET AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE BACK BELOW
FREEZING AND SNOWFALL RATE BRIEFLY INCREASES. AS LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT, EXPECTATION FOR AT LEAST
MODEST MOISTURE FLUX TO OCCUR OFF THE REMAINING OPEN WATER OVER LAKE
HURON, AFFORDING AN ADDITIVE COMPONENT OF LAKE EFFECT FOR THE
NORTHERN THUMB REGION THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OUTGOING FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT 24 HOUR ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM HALF AN INCH
/MAINLY SAGINAW VALLEY/ TO AN INCH OR TWO ELSEWHERE. THERE REMAINS
POTENTIAL FOR A SMALLER FOOTPRINT TO EXCEED 2 INCHES, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITY BETWEEN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN METRO DETROIT TO
FLINT TO THE THUMB REGION.
DEEP LAYER NORTHERLY FLOW ENTRENCHED TO START THE WORK WEEK. NOTABLE
PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL DRAG
TEMPERATURES BACK BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE FEBRUARY, WITH DAYLIGHT
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 20S. SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT PERIOD AS ADEQUATE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE REMAINS WITH THE CLOUD LAYER FIXATED WITHIN THE DGZ.
ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WOULD REMAIN MINOR. COLDEST CONDITIONS
NOTED MONDAY NIGHT. ACTUAL LOW TEMPERATURE AND ACCOMPANYING WIND
CHILL MINIMUM CARRIES DEPENDENCE ON DEGREE OF CLEARING, BUT ANY OPEN
SKY CERTAINLY ENCOURAGES A DIP IN TEMPERATURES TO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FOR SOME AREAS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD TRANSLATE INTO A
MINIMUM WIND CHILL IN THE VICINITY OF ZERO DEGREES.
CLIPPER SYSTEM FORECAST TO LIFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. UNSETTLED MODEL SOLUTION SPACE EVIDENT IN
DIFFERENCES IN SYSTEM TRAJECTORY AND PLACEMENT/QUALITY OF MOISTURE
RELATIVE TO BOTH THE SYSTEM WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY AND
WITH THE PARENT LOW ARRIVAL OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DICTATE BOTH
ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND TIMING ACROSS THIS TIME HORIZON. OUTGOING
FORECAST CURRENTLY OUTLINING A BROADER 1 TO 3 INCHES RANGE FOR
POSSIBLE ACCUMULATION /HIGHEST NORTH/, BUT WORTH NOTING A SUBSET OF
SOLUTIONS OFFER A MUCH SHARPER GRADIENT IN QPF ALONG THE SOUTHERN
EDGE ACKNOWLEDGING THE VARIABILITY YET NOTED WITH THIS SMALLER SCALE
SYSTEM. INFLUX OF HI RES SOLUTIONS IN THE COMING PERIODS WILL OFFER
MORE CLARITY. BENIGN CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM PROVIDES THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SNOW THURSDAY.
MARINE
CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN OVER LAKE HURON. LINGERING
CONVERGENCE AXIS TO THE NORTH AND ARRIVAL OF A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
TO THE SOUTH HAS ALLOWED BROAD COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP.
SNOW SHOWERS DRIVEN IN PART BY THE LAKE AGGREGATE WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL THE SURFACE LOW FULLY PHASES WITH A MUCH
STRONGER COASTAL ATLANTIC LOW. THIS PROCESS ESTABLISHES AN EXPANSIVE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT EXTENDS INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
LAKES, LEADING TO SUSTAINED NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
COMBINATION OF ICE COVER AND DISORGANIZED LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD
GENERALLY CAP FREQUENT GUSTS BELOW GALE FORCE. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST
FOR NEARSHORE ZONES TO REACH ADVISORY THRESHOLDS HOWEVER, AS GUSTS
REACH 30 KNOTS AND WAVE HEIGHTS EXCEED 5 FEET IN ICE-FREE WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY BUILDS IN TUESDAY TO RELAX THE GRADIENT
BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER ARRIVES MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1210 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
AVIATION...
SNOW HAS SPREAD NORTH INTO THE REGION THIS EVENING AND HAS PUSHED UP
THROUGH FLINT. WIDESPREAD 3-4SM VSBYS WITH BRIEF OBS DOWN TO AROUND
1 1/2SM AT TIMES SO FAR. LOOK FOR A WINDOW OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW
THIS MORNING AROUND 13-16Z AND ANOTHER BAND PUSHING SOUTH THIS
EVENING BRINGING A CHANCE OF BRIEFLY HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES.
OTHERWISE LIGHT SNOW SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AND INTO
TONIGHT BEFORE TAPERING OFF. ALL IN ALL STILL LOOKING FOR AROUND 1-2
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE WESTERLY, TURNING
NORTHWESTERLY THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
THE FORECAST WHILE BEGINNING TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...SNOW HAS BEGUN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. MAINLY MVFR VSBYS WITH POCKETS/BANDS OF IFR
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. TRIED TO TEMPO IN A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES OF
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL THIS MORNING AND
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL TOTAL AROUND 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AOB 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PTYPE OF SNOW TODAY AND TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....DRK
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