995
FXUS63 KDTX 222035
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- INTERVALS OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT ENDING
BY AROUND DAYBREAK TOMORROW.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. SINGLE DIGIT
LOWS TUESDAY MORNING AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 0
DEGREES POSSIBLE.
- WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH
A BROAD SWATH OF 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
WEAKLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT WITHIN BROAD CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT INTERVALS OF LIGHT
TO BRIEFLY MODERATE SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE RESIDING OVER LAKE HURON WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPLY A STEADY LAKE ENHANCED MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER
LEVELS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO POINT
TOWARDS SATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE WITHIN THE DGZ AND PERIODS
OF VERTICAL MOTION AROUND THIS LAYER. THAT SURFACE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE MID
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. AS IT DOES THIS, IT WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR LOCALLY ENHANCED CONVERGENCE RESULTING IN BRIEF
PERIODS OF HIGHER INTENSITY OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH
ABOUT 8-9 PM. TEMPERATURES COOLING TEMPERATURES POST SUNSET WILL
ALSO BRING SLIGHTLY BETTER ACCUMULATING SNOW CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOMES
MORE NORTHERLY TONIGHT WITH PROGRESSION OF THE LOW AND TROUGH, WHICH
WILL THEN FOCUS BEST SNOWFALL TOWARDS THE THUMB WITH A MODEST LAKE
RESPONSE WHILE BEST FORCING TOWARDS THE DETROIT METRO REGION
WEAKENS. SNOW RATIOS SO FAR HAVE BEEN TO AROUND 15:1 AND EXPECT
SIMILAR RATIOS INTO TONIGHT WITH THE HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW. QPF
FORECAST THROUGH 7AM TOMORROW ON THE ORDER OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH BRINGS AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH TO POSSIBLY 2
INCHES. THE HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE
THUMB AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE IRISH HILLS. ANY LOCATIONS
THAT CAN EXPERIENCE MULTIPLE ROUNDS THE BRIEF AND HIGHER INTENSITY
SNOW OR SOME OVERACHIEVEMENT ON RATIOS MAY BE ABLE TO EXCEED 3 INCHES
IN TOTAL BY THE END OF THIS EVENT TOMORROW MORNING.
COLD ADVECTION WILL ALSO BE SUPPORTING SOME OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AND BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR
TOMORROW. CHILLY START TO THE MORNING TOMORROW WITH TEMPERATURES IN
THE TEENS AND LOW 20S WITH WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND AFTERNOON HIGHS LOOK TO HOLD IN THE 20S, POSSIBLY UPPER TEENS.
THE NORTHERLY FLOW HOLDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE CLOUDS TRY TO
SCATTER OUT FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARDS DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING
FROM THE INBOUND HEIGHT RISES. THE CLOUD LAYER WITHIN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IS ADVERTISED TO BE IN THE DGZ, SO A FEW SCATTERED/ISOLATED
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY CLOUDS THAT
HOLD ON THROUGH THE DAY. LITTLE, IF ANY, SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE
WEEK, THOUGH WILL ULTIMATELY DEPEND ON THE CLOUD TRENDS. FORECAST IS
FOR LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS AND MINIMUM WIND CHILLS
IN SOME SPOTS TO AROUND 0 DEGREES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATER IN THE DAY TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT PROVIDING THE NEXT ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. A BROAD
SWATH OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE HIGHER
AMOUNTS REMAIN FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA WHERE THE
BETTER QPF RESIDES IN THE MODEL SPACE. SOME MODELS STILL POINTING
TOWARDS VERY LITTLE QPF TOWARDS THE SOUTHER MI BORDER, THUS A SLIGHT
TREND DOWN TO AROUND A HALF INCH OR LESS IS FORECAST FOR THE
SOUTHERN MI BORDER. THERE REMAINS SOME VARIABILITY IN QPF AMOUNTS,
BUT LOOK TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 0.1-0.2". UPCOMING HI-RES CYCLES WILL
HELP HONE THE QPF DETAILS.
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BEHIND THE TUESDAY SYSTEM BRINGING POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE ENHANCED SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO LINGER AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE AT
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO THURSDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOT OF VARIABILITY WITH THE PLACEMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW, SO OVERALL CONFIDENCE REMAINS
VERY LOW IN TERMS OF SNOW POTENTIAL. WILL NEED TO START SEEING MORE
AGREEMENT BEFORE SPEAKING TO ANY SNOW AMOUNTS OR LACK THEREOF.
MARINE
THE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER LAKE HURON HAS TRANSITIONED INTO
AN INVERTED TROUGH AXIS AS LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS OVER THE
ATLANTIC COAST. REMNANTS OF THIS TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAVEL SOUTH
ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS EVENING, REACHING LAKE ERIE BY MONDAY MORNING
AND LEADING TO A FINAL UPTICK IN SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE AXIS. FLOW FULLY TRANSITIONS TO THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FILLS IN BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS AND ONTARIO. SUSTAINED NORTHERLY
FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AMIDST THE COLDER AIRMASS ALOFT LEADS TO
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NORTH OF STURGEON POINT MONDAY. ICE COVER SOUTH
OF THIS REGION HOWEVER PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF ANY NEARSHORE
HEADLINES, EVEN AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 KNOTS. HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO A
BRIEF REPRIEVE IN MARINE CONDITIONS AND SHIFT TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY BEFORE A CLIPPER SYSTEM APPROACHES TUESDAY
NIGHT. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET RANGING FROM 40 KNOTS NEAR MACKINAC TO
60 KNOTS OVER LAKE ERIE RAMPS UP WIND GUSTS TUESDAY NIGHT. STABILITY
WILL BE THE MAIN FACTOR CONTROLLING GUST POTENTIAL, AND AT THIS
POINT LOOKS TO CAP GUSTS BELOW 35 KNOTS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
AVIATION...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITHIN BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING WILL LINGER
ACROSS SE MI INTO THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING LAPSE RATES THROUGH
DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORTIVE INTERVALS OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS WITHIN THE BROAD REGION OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. THIS WILL
RESULT IN FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR BASED CONDITIONS DURING
AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME DEPARTURE OF THE
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TONIGHT, NORTHERLY FLOW MAY DRIVE SOME RESIDUAL
FLURRIES AND LOW CLOUDS INTO THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS. A MORE
NOTABLE PUSH OF SUBSIDENCE/DRYING WILL THEN TAKE HOLD ON MONDAY,
OFFERING THE POTENTIAL FOR IMPROVED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY.
FOR DTW...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER 30S. LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES WILL DECREASE DURING THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT. MODERATE
ON MONDAY.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....SC
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