648
FXUS63 KDTX 230900
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
400 AM EST MON FEB 23 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDER CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. MINIMUM WIND CHILL
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING RANGING FROM 0 TO 5 DEGREES.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS
RANGING FROM ONE HALF TO 2 INCHES, WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB.
- SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, WITH THE NEXT
CHANCE OF SNOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE FORCED ASCENT
FINALLY VACATES TOWARD THE EAST COAST TODAY. SOME LINGERING POCKETS
OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST YET THIS MORNING AS THIS PROCESS
UNFOLDS AND WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF INCREASING COLD AIR ADVECTION
AS FLOW DEEPENS OUT OF THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION REMAINS
MINOR AND FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE THUMB REGION AS WEAK LAKE
MOISTURE FLUX CONTINUES TO CONTRIBUTE TO BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY.
OTHERWISE, EXPANSIVE STRATUS STILL FEATURING A NARROWING MOIST LAYER
SATURATED WITH RESPECT TO ICE AND PARKED WITHIN THE DGZ WILL MAINTAIN
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. THE INBOUND POLAR AIRMASS YIELDS THE
COLDEST DAYLIGHT CONDITIONS THIS WORK WEEK. HIGHS BROADLY DISTRIBUTED
IN THE 20S, WITH WIND CHILL RANGING FROM 5 TO 15 DEGREES. FORECAST
WILL HIGHLIGHT A WINDOW FOR SOME POCKETS OF OPEN SKY TONIGHT, AS
INCREASING SUBSIDENCE WORKS TO LOWER THE INVERSION. REGARDLESS,
EXPECTATION FOR LOW TEMPERATURES TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
TO LOWER TEENS MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.
CLIPPER SYSTEM SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS IN CONJUNCTION WITHIN EMERGING LOW LEVEL
SOUTHERLY FLOW ELICITS A SOLID PATTERN OF WARM AIR ADVECTION
TUESDAY. THIS EFFECTIVELY LIFTS MOST LOCATIONS BACK TOWARD THE
FREEZING MARK BY LATE IN THE DAY. NARROW AXIS OF GREATER MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT FLANKING THE LEAD EDGE OF INBOUND WAVE WILL SWEEP
THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED SIGNAL YET ON WHETHER MOISTURE
QUALITY PROVES ADEQUATE TO GENERATE A MEANINGFUL RESPONSE IN TERMS
OF SNOW PRODUCTION OR IF THE AMBIENT PROFILE IS TOO DRY. FORECAST
SIMPLY OUTLINES A CHANCE FOR SNOW PRIOR TO 00Z, GREATER PROBABILITY
WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. NOTABLY STRONGER ASCENT THEN ARRIVES 00Z-06Z
EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE MAIN HEIGHT FALL
CENTER ANCHORS ALONG THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 150 KNOT UPPER JET.
GREATER FORCING AGAIN EDGED HIGHER WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, LENDING TO
A GENERAL GRADIENT IN PROJECTED QPF FROM .10" NORTH TO UNDER .05"
SOUTH. THIS TRANSLATES INTO ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL RANGING FROM A
COUPLE INCHES NORTH OF M-46 TO HALF INCH OR LESS FOR PARTS OF METRO
DETROIT ON SOUTHWARD. CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS INTO WEDNESDAY AS
COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY GRIPS THE REGION.
ENERGETIC CENTRAL PACIFIC UPPER JET STREAM WILL DIRECT ANOTHER
PROGRESSIVE, MID LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS DURING THE
MIDWEEK PERIOD. HIGH VARIABILITY REMAINS ACROSS THE COLLECTIVE
ENSEMBLE MODEL SOLUTION SPACE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. ASSESSMENT OF THE EPS/GEPS SOLUTIONS POINT TO A
PREDOMINANT TREND TOWARD A FLATTER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION,
LEAVING SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF
ASSOCIATED MID LEVEL DYNAMICS /IF ANYTHING AT ALL/. THE
INTERQUARTILE RANGE IN QPF CAPTURES THIS IN SHOWING A SPREAD FROM
NOTHING TO AROUND 0.15" UP THROUGH ROUGHLY THE M-59 CORRIDOR FOR
THURSDAY. GEFS HOLDING A MORE BULLISH SCENARIO AT THIS STAGE.
OUTGOING FORECAST MAINTAINS SIMPLY A CHANCE MENTION FOR SNOW ACROSS
THE THURSDAY PERIOD. OTHERWISE, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ENTRENCHED
WED-THU, WITH A WARMING TREND OUTLOOKED FOR FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
CLIPPER EXPECTED TO SHEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES EARLY NEXT
WEEKEND.
MARINE
EXPANSIVE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AS A STRONG LOW LIFTS INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS
GRADIENT IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NORTHERLY FLOW SUSTAINED AROUND 25-30
KNOTS. THE ENHANCED FLOW AND THERMAL TROUGH IN PLACE GENERATE HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, PROMPTING A WARNING NORTH OF
STURGEON POINT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRIEFLY FILLS IN TONIGHT-TUESDAY
TO BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHWEST AND RELAX SUSTAINED WINDS BELOW 10
KNOTS BY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS QUIETER MARINE PERIOD WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET (45-50 KNOTS) ACCOMPANIES THIS CLIPPER, BUT
WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX GUSTS TO THE SURFACE AMIDST COLD WATER
TEMPERATURES AND STABLE CONDITIONS. A BRIEF PERIOD FOR GALE FORCE
GUSTS DOES EXIST TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A
WATCH AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED STABILITY AND
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE JET. THIS CLIPPER ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW TO THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1156 PM EST SUN FEB 22 2026
AVIATION...
COLD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE OVER THE REGION WITH A
RESIDUAL SURFACE TROUGH DRAPED THROUGH MID MI. PATTERN WILL CHANGE
LITTLE THROUGH MONDAY AS A STRONG LOW LIFTING UP THE EAST COAST IS
STALLING EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE OVERALL PATTERN. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL TRY TO INCH EASTWARD INTO THE REGION BRINGING DRIER AIR INTO
THE REGION BUT SUBSIDENCE MAY END UP CONCENTRATING THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE UNDER THE INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING A LOW STRATUS
DECK IN PLACE. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY END UP GRINDING OUT
FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS WELL. LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE OF MVFR VSBYS WITH SNOW WILL BE THE NEXT FEW
HOURS WITH VFR SNOW THE REMAINDER OF THE EARLY MORNING. WINDS WILL
BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON BEFORE
TAPERING OFF MONDAY NIGHT.
FOR DTW...PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING. MAINLY VFR SNOW AT THIS POINT WITH A LOW CHANCE OF POCKETS
OF PASSING MVFR SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS HOLD INTO THE DAY BEFORE POSSIBLY
LIFTING TO VFR LATE IN THE DAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND LOW FOR
TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE AS SNOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
LHZ361-362.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....DRK
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