950
FXUS63 KDTX 110414
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1214 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI CITIES REGION AND
NORTHERN THUMB THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO 0.10 INCH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN TRAVEL IMPACTS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE WEDNESDAY WITH BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO MELTING
SNOW SHOWERS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT POSSIBLE.
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY WITH A DYNAMIC CLIPPER SYSTEM
TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. STRONG WEST WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH MAY BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYTIME FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES TO
START NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
THE UPSTREAM CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS
SE MI DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WITH SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG/IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD
ALONG A COLD FRONT. CEILINGS WILL UNDERGO WIDE VARIABILITY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO A
RESIDUAL COOL LAKE MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS SE MI. THE PASSAGE
OF THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WILL RESULT IN A
VEERING OF THE WINDS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. POST FRONTAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS TO INCREASE STEADILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY PEAKING OVER 25 KNOTS AT TIMES.
FOR DTW...UPSTREAM RADAR SUGGESTS NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING
ACROSS THE METRO AIRSPACE BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM MAY THEN OCCUR IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT DURING THE
MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS. CONFIDENCE ON THE LATER MORNING
CONVECTION IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH THE FORECAST.
* HIGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW AFTER 12Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 810 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
UPDATE...
ONGOING UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH WILL EVOLVE INTO A REGION OF
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT TRACKS ACROSS SE MI DURING
THE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO FAR NORTHERN LENAWEE
AND CENTRAL MONROE COUNTIES. WHILE THIS FRONT MAY STALL OR LIFT A BIT
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACHING SFC LOW, THE MARINE
INFLUENCE HAS CONTRIBUTED TO A VERY STRONG DENSITY GRADIENT ALONG
THE FRONT WHICH WILL MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT TO BE ADVECTED TOO FAR
NORTHWARD INTO SE MI. THIS WILL KEEP THE RISK OF SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION (DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES) PRIMARILY CONFINED
TO THE FAR SOUTH TONIGHT (LIKELY ALONG OR SOUTH OF LINE FROM ANN
ARBOR TO MONROE). AN INFLUX OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY (0-3KM MU CAPE
UPWARDS OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG) WILL POSE THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL WITH
ANY THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL,
THE GOING FORECAST LOOKS IN GOOD SHAPE. NO MAJOR FORECAST UPDATES ARE
WARRANTED.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 342 PM EDT TUE MAR 10 2026
DISCUSSION...
20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SHARPENING LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE
SLOWLY MIGRATING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE I-94 CORRIDOR. WHILE FIRM COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY, INITIAL ATTENTION
FOCUSED ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS THE FRONTAL
SLOPE ENGAGES A GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING PROFILE WITH TEMPERATURES NOW
IN THE MID 70S IN ANN ARBOR/DTW. COLLECTIVE CONSENSUS ACROSS THE
HIRES SOLUTION SPACE INDICATE ROUGHLY 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST
ACROSS THIS CORRIDOR WITH A PEAK IN THE 21Z-00Z WINDOW. MIXED SIGNAL
YET ON THE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE, ACKNOWLEDGING SOME LINGERING
STABILITY CONCERNS ATOP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH MAY PROVE LIMITING
FOR UPDRAFT GROWTH/DEPTH. BACKGROUND DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD CERTAINLY
SUPPORTIVE OF GREATER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SHOULD A BETTER UPDRAFT
ROOT AT THE SURFACE, WHILE THE FRONTAL ZONE OFFERS AN INHERENT
FOCUSED REGION OF LOW LEVEL SHEAR/SRH. WINDOW TO MONITOR, BUT
CERTAINLY PLAUSIBLE LITTLE TO NOTHING MANIFESTS BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
EASES FURTHER SOUTH AND PINCHES OFF THE BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY
TO THE SOUTH.
MAIN WINDOW FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY REMAINS CENTERED
WITHIN THE 02Z TO 08Z PERIOD. CONVECTIVE EXPANSION OCCURS UPSTREAM
THIS EVENING AS THE SURFACE LOW AND SUBTLE HEIGHT FALLS WORK ACROSS
THE BOUNDARY AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT STRENGTHENS ATOP THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL ZONE. INBOUND ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ELEVATED FOR NEARLY ALL
AREAS GIVEN THE DEPTH AND STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL STABILITY HELD IN LOW
LEVEL EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW. THE I-94 TO OHIO BORDER CORRIDOR WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY MORE TENUOUS POSITIONING WITH SOME VULNERABILITY
YET FOR BRIEF NEAR SURFACE DESTABILIZATION TO REMAIN/MATERIALIZE IF
THE SURFACE FRONT WOBBLES NORTH. THERE REMAINS A SMALL SUBSET OF
SOLUTIONS THAT LEAVE THAT DOOR OPEN. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT ASSOCIATED TORNADO POTENTIAL IN LINE WITH THE SPC OUTLOOK
FOR THIS SMALL FOOTPRINT OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE,
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL POTENTIAL WILL EXIST AS DEEPER THETA-E
TRANSPORT ENGAGES SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY RESIDING ALONG THE
FRONTAL SLOPE. HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION, WITH SOME
INFLUENCE FROM ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE MARINE WATERS, WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY
AND NORTHERN THUMB REGIONS TONIGHT. THIS INCREASES THE PROBABILITY
FOR SOME AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN TO MATERIALIZE WHERE SURFACE TEMPS
FLIRT WITH FREEZING. EFFICIENCY OF ICE ACCRETION MAY PROVE LIMITED
GIVEN THE MARGINAL/WARM CONDITIONS JUST OFF THE SURFACE, BUT
PROBABILISTIC DATA MAINTAINS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR A GLAZE OF ICE
WITH AROUND A 25% CHANCE OF EXCEEDING .05" IN MIDLAND/BAY CITY AND
BAD AXE.
SURFACE LOW MIGRATES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WEAKLY UNSTABLE
LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BRIEFLY MATERIALIZES 12Z-18Z /MAINLY SOUTHEAST/
AS PRE-FRONTAL SOUTHWEST FLOW PROVIDES VERY MODEST WARM/MOIST AIR
ADVECTION. BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION APPEARS CAPPED AT LESS THAN
500 J/KG AT THIS STAGE, BUT SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR SCATTERED SHALLOW CONVECTION. BETTER MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS APPEAR TO SHEAR NORTHEAST WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE POST-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT, AFFORDING A TREND TOWARD DRIER AND MORE STABLE
CONDITIONS OVERALL BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. NARROW OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
WET SNOWFLAKES MAINLY NORTH LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITHIN THE
SOUTH END OF THE DEFORMATION AXIS. OVERNIGHT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALL AREAS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
NO SIGNIFICANT WX THURSDAY WITH DEEP LAYER STABILITY HELD UNDER
CONFLUENT MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW AND SURFACE RIDGING. SEASONABLE
RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE NOW ENTRENCHED. A HIGHLY DYNAMIC MID LEVEL
WAVE PROJECTED TO EJECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LEAD WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT TIED TO
STRENGTHENING ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION LIFTS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA THUR NIGHT. SOME VARIATION YET IN BOTH MOISTURE QUALITY AND
AVAILABLE ASCENT WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT. GREATEST PRECIP POTENTIAL
FOCUSED FRIDAY MORNING AS PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS COLLOCATE WITH
FAVORABLE UPPER JET SUPPORT. BURST OF WET, ACCUMULATING SNOW
PLAUSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH ASSUMING A SUPPORTIVELY COLD
ENVIRONMENT. STRONGER WIND POTENTIAL TO ACCOMPANY THE POST-FRONTAL
COLD AIR ADVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH A NOTABLE INCREASE
IN WIND MAGNITUDE CAPTURED BY IMPROVING MIXING DEPTH. YET ANOTHER
MID LEVEL WAVE OF NORTH PACIFIC ORIGIN FORECAST TO DEEPEN UPON
ARRIVAL FOR THE WEEKEND PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRESENT ANOTHER
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. FURTHER FORECAST
REVISION LIKELY AS DETAIL IN SYSTEM TRAJECTORY, TIMING AND STRENGTH
BECOME MORE APPARENT.
MARINE...
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS SOUTH OF
LAKE HURON AT ISSUANCE AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL ACT AS A TRIGGER FOR SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING, WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS OVER LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS REMAIN POSSIBLE. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS PAIR WITH THIS
SYSTEM TO GENERATE SPORADIC GALE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT, BUT STABILITY
LIMITS HEADLINE ISSUANCE AT THIS TIME. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH TOWARD
SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TRANSITIONS TO
BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT THAT INTRODUCES 30+ KNOT GUST
POTENTIAL AS COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP, ALBEIT BRIEF DURATION. ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO WINTRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN GALE POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
ALONGSIDE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGY...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS LOWER
MICHIGAN. EXPECTED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 0.75-2.00 INCHES BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY LEAD TO SOME MINOR FLOODING OF PRONE
URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS, AS WELL AS RISES ON AREA RIVERS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
053-054.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-441.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
HYDROLOGY....MR
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