552
FXUS63 KDTX 111748
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
148 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING AND STRONG WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND STRONG WINDS IS
INCREASINGLY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
AVIATION
EXPANSIVE AREA OF VERY LOW STRATUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AS A HIGH DEGREE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE WAKE
OF EXIT LOW PRESSURE. OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUGGEST A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CLOUD BASE WILL OCCUR WITH TIME, SLOWLY LIFTING CIGS
FROM LIFR/IFR INTO LOWER MVFR BY EVENING. LIMITED MIXING PROVING
ADEQUATE TO RESTRICT WIND GUST POTENTIAL THUS FAR, BUT EXPECTATION
REMAINS FOR SOME DEGREE OF GUSTINESS TO EMERGE LATE TODAY AS CLOUD
BASES LIFT AND MIXING IMPROVES UNDER COLDER CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST
GUSTS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
TONIGHT. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE REGION OVERNIGHT,
BRINGING INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD TO LIFT TO VFR AND
EVENTUALLY SCATTER HEADING INTO THURSDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW FOR
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
AN EARLIER LINE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXITING THE AREA WITH THE
STALLED SURFACE FRONT NOW POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST OHIO. SEVERE
THREAT THROUGH THE REST OF THE EARLY MORNING IS LOW AS THE RAIN-
COOLED OUTFLOW AND NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD HOLD THE SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY SOUTH. 40-50 KT WSW FLOW NOTED IN KDTX VWP DATA
CONTINUES TO ADVECT A FEED OF ANOMALOUS MOISTURE INTO THE ELEVATED
FRONTAL SLOPE. PWAT ANALYZED AT 1.30" IS NEAR THE DAILY MAX IN SPC
RAOB CLIMATOLOGY. AS THE LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING,
EXPECT THE FLARE-UP OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN IN TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH MIDDAY. OPTED TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA GIVEN HEAVY RAINFALL ALREADY
RECEIVED, WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY, AND INCREASED LIKELIHOOD FOR
TRAINING STORMS AS CORFIDI VECTOR MAGNITUDE FALLS BELOW 10 KT. HI-
RES ENSEMBLE DATA OFFERS 50% CONFIDENCE FOR AREAS TO RECEIVE OVER 2"
OF RAIN, WHICH IS HIGHER THAN CURRENT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. THIS
SUGGESTS HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES IN URBAN AREAS AND
ALONG SMALL STREAMS. AREAS LEFT OUT OF THE WATCH ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SEE AS MUCH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL FROM THE NEXT ROUND.
AUTOMATED OBSERVATIONS OVERNIGHT INDICATED INTERVALS OF FREEZING
RAIN ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND NORTHERN THUMB, WITH DEW POINTS
THERE STILL HOLDING IN THE LOWER 30S. WIDESPREAD PRECIP IS DEPARTING
THE AREA BUT WITH THE ADDITIONAL PRECIP EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING,
WILL KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY GOING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS RISE COMFORTABLY ABOVE FREEZING THIS
MORNING IN WHICH CASE THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELED EARLY.
ADDITIONAL PVA LIFTS NE INTO THE AREA TODAY AHEAD OF THE INBOUND MID-
LEVEL TROUGH THAT PASSES OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW OVER
SW LOWER IS PROGGED TO TRACK NE FROM TO NEAR THE ST. CLAIR RIVER BY
18Z, WITH THE WARM SECTOR BRIEFLY SPREADING UP INTO THE METRO
DETROIT VICINITY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. POOR LAPSE RATES NEAR MOIST
ADIABATIC WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL BUT CAN'T RULE OUT ISOLATED
GUSTY WINDS AS THE LLJ CLIPS FAR SE MI. AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH,
BACKSIDE DEFORMATION FORCING SUSTAINS ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE MAY BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW FOR LIGHT WINTRY MIX AS
TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE 30S FROM NW TO SE. IMPACTS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED AS ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT. COOLER CONDITIONS IN THE
20S TONIGHT LEAD INTO A SEASONABLE DAY THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL
CONFLUENCE WITHIN A RISING HEIGHT FIELD SUSTAINS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS.
THE NEXT NORTHERN STREAM WAVE ARRIVES FRIDAY MORNING, AMPLIFYING
UPSTREAM WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CORRIDOR OF HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA
TARGETING SOUTHERN LOWER MI. THIS KICKS OFF DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC
ASCENT TO PRODUCE A QUICK HITTING BURST OF PRECIP OVERNIGHT INTO THE
FRIDAY MORNING COMMUTE - CURRENT TIMING IS LINED UP BETWEEN ABOUT
MIDNIGHT AND 8AM. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AT ONSET FAVOR
SNOW INITIALLY BEFORE WARM ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS BRINGS
POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING. LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCH WET SNOWFALL MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF I-69, BUT POSSIBLY INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE
GLACIAL RIDGE AS WELL. AREAS FARTHER SOUTH ARE MORE POISED FOR A
DUSTING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A PERIOD OF STRONG WINDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE HIGHLY DYNAMIC SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES.
AN IMPRESSIVE GRADIENT AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE/COLD ADVECTION PRODUCE
40+ MPH WINDS AND MAY WARRANT A HEADLINE. THE NEXT ROUND OF HIGHER
IMPACT WEATHER CONTINUES TO COME INTO FOCUS FOR THE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY PERIOD. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING A VIGOROUS
DIGGING WAVE INDUCING STRONG SYNOPTIC ASCENT DIRECTLY OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMPS UP
SATURDAY NIGHT TO PRODUCE A BAND OF SNOW OVER LOWER MI BEFORE THE
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. DEPENDING ON ITS
TRACK, HEAVY PRECIP AND STRONG WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE.
MARINE...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TODAY AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
TOWARD SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TRANSITIONS
TO BROADER NORTHWEST FLOW TONIGHT THAT INTRODUCES 30+ KNOT GUST
POTENTIAL AS COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP, ALBEIT BRIEF DURATION. ACTIVE
STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK, WITH A
RETURN TO WINTRY CONDITIONS. INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN GALE POTENTIAL
FOR FRIDAY AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES,
ALONGSIDE WINTRY PRECIPITATION.
HYDROLOGY...
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-59, AS
WELL AS SOUTHERN ST. CLAIR COUNTY, THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO TRACK OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING
STORMS AND HEAVY RATES OF OVER 1" PER HOUR TO LEAD TO FLOODING
CONCERNS ESPECIALLY WITHIN LOW-LYING AND URBAN AREAS. 50% CONFIDENCE
EXISTS FOR LOCALIZED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF OVER 2". RISES ON AREA
RIVERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MI OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS GIVEN
THE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL SINCE LAST EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MIZ063-068>070-075-
076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......MV/TF
HYDROLOGY....TF
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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