630
FXUS63 KDTX 120345
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1145 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY FRIDAY MORNING, MAINLY NORTH OF M-59.
STRONG WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ARE INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
THE FIRST PART OF SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE LATE DAY
SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR
ARRIVES.
- MUCH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION IS MAKING GOOD PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN
LOWER MI, MARKED A RAPIDLY ADVANCING CLEARING LINE. THIS CLEARING
WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS THE TERMINALS DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR TWO
AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. THE CLEAR SKIES WILL OFFER SOME DEGREE OF
DECOUPLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, LEADING TO SOME DEGREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DEEPENING DAYTIME MIXED
LAYER WILL LEAD TO A SLIGHT UPTICK IN WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY
LOW LEVEL AIR WILL LIMIT AFTERNOON CLOUDS TO JUST SOME HIGHER BASED
CU.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET VERY EARLY IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT WED MAR 11 2026
DISCUSSION...
MORNING LOW PRESSURE IS RAPIDLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE ST LAWRENCE WITH
ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT IN THE PROCESS OF CROSSING SE MI.
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLY COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT CAUSES
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND FREEZING FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-59 BY 7-8PM AND
EVENTUALLY FOR AREAS SOUTH LATE EVENING-EARLY TONIGHT. THE LATER
ARRIVAL OF COLDER TEMPS IN THE SOUTH KEEPS LIGHT PRECIP ALL RAIN OR
ONLY A BRIEF RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE LINGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS TAPER
OFF. HOWEVER FOR AREAS NORTH, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TRANSITION TO
LIGHT RAIN-SNOW AND EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW BY EARLY EVENING- LITTLE IF
ANY ACCUMULATION. FRONTAL SLOPE FULLY CLEARS SE MI BY LATE EVENING
ENDING PRECIP CHANCES WITH DRIER CONDITIONS HOLDING THROUGH
THURSDAY. CORE OF THE THERMAL TROUGH CROSSES SOUTHERN LOWER MI
DAYTIME THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -10C. DESPITE THIS,
COMBINATION OF INCREASING SUBSIDENCE AND A DRIER AIRMASS SUPPORT
CLEARING SKIES ALLOWING INSOLATION KEEPS HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY BELOW
IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
NEXT MID-UPPER SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION FAVORED TO TRACK OVER THE
STRAITS/NORTHERN LOWER MI. ENERGETIC (140+KT) NORTHERN STREAM JET
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST SUPPORTS RESPECTABLE DEEPENING OF THE LOW AS
IT PUSHES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES EARLY FRIDAY. FOCUSING ON THE
PRECIP SIDE FIRST, DEEP LAYER ISENTROPIC ASCENT CROSSES SE MI
BETWEEN ROUGHLY 06-12Z FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES, AT LEAST FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS, HOLD NEAR/BELOW FREEZING RANGING UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
SUPPORTING AN ALL SNOW START. INCREASING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
BRINGS MID 30S BY MID-FRIDAY MORNING TRANSITIONING TO A MELTING SNOW
OR RAIN-SNOW MIX BEFORE THE COLD/OCCLUDED FRONT CROSSES LATE MORNING
DRAWING IN A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT. GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN
FAVORED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA (ALONG/NORTH OF I-69)
WHERE 1-3" OF WET SNOW ARE POSSIBLE. FOR AREAS SOUTH, POTENTIAL
TOTALS DECREASE FURTHER SOUTH YOU ARE WITH AREAS SOUTH OF M-59
LIKELY ONLY SEEING A DUSTING TO HALF INCH. THE OTHER IMPACTFUL SIDE
OF THIS SYSTEM ARE STRONGER WINDS. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS QUICKLY
RAMP UP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SHARP GRADIENT ARRIVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE A 55-
65KT LLJ BETWEEN 925-875MB WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR FRIDAY MORNING.
WHILE THE LOW IS QUICK TO DEPART TO EASTERN ONTARIO BY LATE DAY
ALLOWING SOME REDUCTION IN THE GRADIENT OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MI, POST
OCCLUSION WESTERLY LLJ WINDS ONLY PROGGED TO FALL TO 45-50KTS. AS IT
STANDS, SET-UP IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE TO WARRANT AT LEAST AN WIND
ADVISORY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FEW STRONGER MODEL SOLUTIONS (LIKE
THE 15Z RAP) THAT NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA SO THERE WAS NO
CONSIDERATION OF A WATCH WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS FOR SATURDAY BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ELEVATED PORTIONS
OF THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE LIFT INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MI LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING THROUGH THE MORNING. MAIN
POINTS OF UNCERTAINTY FOR THE FORECAST ARE THE SPEED THAT THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH SOUTHERN LOWER MI (AFFECTING DURATION OF
SNOWFALL AT ANY LOCATION) AND HOW FAR NORTH THE SURFACE WARM FRONT
REACHES (AFFECTING BOTH THE DURATION SNOW/WINTRY MIX OVER THE
NORTHERN CWA AND HOW FAR THE DRIER WARM SECTOR PUSHES NORTH). LATEST
MODEL TRENDS HAVE FAVORED THE SURFACE FRONT STALLING OVER THE
SAGINAW BAY RESULTING IN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOW FALLING OVER
NORTHERN LOWER MI/UP THOUGH SUPPORTS WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR AREAS NORTH OF M-46. THIS POSITIONING ALSO OFFERS A
SHOT FOR A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IN THE AFTERNOON FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
M-46. LOW CENTER AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THEN CROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MI SUNDAY EVENING SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF WINDIER COLD ADVECTION
INTO MONDAY.
MARINE...
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HOLD STEADY THROUGH THE EVENING IN THE WAKE
OF A COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS ALSO ACTED TO IMPROVE VISIBILITY ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES FROM EARLY DAY MARINE FOG. THE FAVORABLE FETCH
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MIXING
DEPTHS THAT WILL BE BOOSTED FROM COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR
BREEZY CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT AND OVERNIGHT. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30
KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH SOME ISOLATED GUST TO GALES FAVORED
BETWEEN 2Z TO 9Z. GIVEN THE BREVITY AND LOWER POTENTIAL FOR GALES,
WILL PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY GALE PRODUCTS FOR THE SHORT TERM.
WIND DECREASE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW
AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
MOVES IN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON
THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
RESULT IN A RAPID UPTICK IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, ALONG WITH
WINTER WEATHER. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, GUST TO GALES AND
EVEN SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALES ARE LOOKING VERY LIKELY AND A GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE FORECAST ZONES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE WILL BE A WINDOW FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS FRIDAY MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL
SMALL DEVIATIONS AS TO WHERE STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PENDING THIS TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT LAKE ERIE TO LAKE ST. CLAIR WILL
BE LOCATIONS TO MONITOR, WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES ACROSS THE SAGINAW
BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT WILL PULL IN COLD AIR IN ITS WAKE, SUSTAINING
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR LHZ421-441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......AM
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