176
FXUS63 KDTX 121703
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
103 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES FORECAST NORTH OF M-59.
- A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHWEST
WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 55 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
VFR DIURNAL CU HOLDS THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS WEAK INDUCED
RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL LEAD TO LIGHT SNOW ACTIVITY
AFTER 07-08Z TONIGHT CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHER SNOW
RATES/TOTALS FAVORED FROM FNT-NORTH WITH ONLY A BRIEFER WINDOW FOR
HIGHER RATES FOR THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
DISCUSSION...
THERMAL TROUGH TAKES BRIEF RESIDENCE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES
CURRENTLY IN THE 20S FORECAST TO REBOUND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S
THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY COLUMN WILL SUPPORT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
TODAY, THOUGH LAKE MOISTURE ADVECTING THROUGH WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW
SUPPORTS A DIURNAL FLARE-UP OF HIGH-BASED CUMULUS. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND DEEP MIXING RESULT IN A 20 TO 25 MPH BREEZE WHICH HOLDS WIND
CHILLS IN THE 20S AND 30S.
AN ENERGETIC 170 KT UPPER JET WORKING INTO THE PNW THIS MORNING WILL
DRIVE THE NEXT PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A
COMPACT AND VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AT THE NOSE OF THIS JET AND
SUBSEQUENT AGEOSTROPHIC RESPONSE WILL PRODUCE A POWERFUL CLIPPER
THAT TRACKS ACROSS NORTHERN MI DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. SHARP EXIT
REGION ASCENT PRECEDES THE SYSTEM IN A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW EXPECTED
TO OCCUR OVER A ~4-6 HR PERIOD MAINLY BETWEEN 2AM AND 10AM. SURFACE
WET BULB TEMPS AT ONSET WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S, THEN RISE
TO THE MID 30S THROUGH THE MORNING AS HIGHER TEMPS AND DEW POINTS
ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS ALLOWS FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
OVERNIGHT WHICH TRANSITIONS TO MELTING SNOW LATER IN THE MORNING.
SLRS NEAR 12:1 RESULT FROM THE IMPRESSIVE LIFT, WHICH IS FORECAST TO
PRODUCE 1-3 INCH ACCUMULATION NORTH OF M-59. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN 3
INCH AMOUNTS, WITH ABOUT 20-30% CHANCE TO SEE 4 INCHES, EXISTS IN
NORTHERN BAY/MIDLAND/HURON COUNTIES AND CONSIDERED THESE AREAS FOR A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY, BUT DECIDED TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT ASSESS
MORNING MODEL DATA FOR HIGHER CONFIDENCE. SOUTH OF M-59, 0
ACCUMULATION TO A WET 1 INCH IS EXPECTED BEFORE MELTING ENSUES.
ADDITIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THE REST OF THE DAY BUT
WITH ACCUMULATION UNLIKELY.
11.12Z NAEFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MSLP MEAN DEEPENS THE LOW TO ~988MB AS
IT TRACKS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS NEAR THE
0.5TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND WILL NOTE THAT 12.00Z
DETERMINISTIC RUNS GENERALLY DEPICT A SLIGHTLY STRONGER SYSTEM. THE
RESULTING GRADIENT WILL BRING STRONG WIND THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
INITIALLY FROM THE SOUTH AS THE 50-65KT LLJ PASSES OVERHEAD DURING
THE MORNING, WIND WILL VEER AROUND TO WEST AS THE LOW REACHES LAKE
HURON IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL AN APPRECIABLE AMOUNT OF
MODEL SPREAD WRT WIND MAGNITUDE AT THE SURFACE, DRIVEN BY PLACEMENT
OF THE LLJ CORE, VARIABLE STABILITY IN THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE
MORNING, AND DEPTH OF MOISTURE/STRATUS THAT WORKS THROUGH DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL AFFECT MIXING HEIGHTS AND LAPSE RATES. DO HAVE
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE AT THIS STAGE TO ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR ALL
OF THE AREA, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF A HIGH END ADVISORY
BUT WITH ROOM FOR HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT IN LATER FORECAST PACKAGES AS
NEEDED. THE GOING FORECAST WILL CALL FOR WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH
WITH A MORNING PEAK ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING LLJ, AND THEN A
SECONDARY PEAK DURING DEEPEST MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER GUSTS WILL BE SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE THE
GRADIENT IS MAXIMIZED AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE LESS OF A
LIMITING FACTOR.
THE NEXT 170 KT UPPER JET STREAK ARRIVES OVER THE PNW LATE SATURDAY,
THIS ONE DIGGING MORE MERIDIONALLY AND DRIVING A TROUGH DOWN TO THE
GULF COAST LATE THIS WEEKEND. THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC WAVE KICKS OFF
DEEP CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CORN BELT WHICH SPREADS A BAND OF
ELEVATED WARM FRONTAL SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIKELY
BEFORE THE ELEVATED FORCING LIFTS NORTH, POSSIBLY WITH A BRIEF
TRANSITION TO WINTRY MIX AS A WARM NOSE ARRIVES MIDDAY. THE LATEST
NBM ADVERTISES 50-100% PROBABILITY FOR 2+" FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-94
BY 00Z MON. ALSO OF NOTE IS 60% PROBABILITY FOR 6+" IN THE SAGINAW
VALLEY, WHICH WILL BE POSITIONED TENUOUSLY CLOSE TO THE SYSTEM'S
HEAVY DEFORMATION AXIS BASED ON CURRENT GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING FOR THE SURFACE LOW CENTER TO TRACK ACROSS LOWER MI
SUNDAY NIGHT, SUGGESTING BRIEF RESIDENCE TIME WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR
AND POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND SNOW
SHOWERS ENSUE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS MUCH COLDER AIR IS DRAGGED IN.
MARINE...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. THE FAVORABLE
FETCH ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON ALONG WITH ELEVATED MIXING
DEPTHS FROM COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE MORNING. WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY, WITH
ISOLATED GUST TO GALES THROUGH 10AM EDT. WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
FILLS IN ACROSS THE REGION.
ATTENTION THEN QUICKLY TURNS A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
MOVES IN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON
TOMORROW MORNING. A VERY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
RAPID UPTICK IN SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS, ALONG WITH WINTER
WEATHER. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM, GUST TO HIGH-END GALES
AND SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALES ARE EXPECTED. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR ALL MARINE AREAS. ADDITIONALLY, THERE WILL BE A WINDOW
FOR STORM FORCE GUSTS THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW, SOUTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE STILL SMALL DEVIATIONS AS TO WHERE STORM
FORCE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE PENDING THIS TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT LAKE
ERIE TO LAKE ST. CLAIR WILL BE LOCATIONS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL FOR
THESE STRONGER GUSTS, WITH ADDITIONAL LOWERED CHANCES ACROSS THE
SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON.
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT BUT WILL PULL
IN COLDER AIR IN ITS WAKE, SUSTAINING BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
EARLY SATURDAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HIGH WIND WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......AM
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