431
FXUS63 KDTX 122248
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
648 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH 1
TO 3 INCHES FORECAST NORTH OF M-59.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM FRIDAY FOR
SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG WINDS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- MUCH COLDER MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S
AND LOWS IN THE TEENS TO POTENTIALLY SINGLE DIGITS.
AVIATION
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRANSLATE FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES THIS EVENING. A PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND A
WEAKENING GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN RAPIDLY DECREASING WIND SPEEDS
WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. A STRONG COMPACT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF
GOOD ASCENT WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY/MID FRIDAY
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE, RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW.
SNOWFALL DURATION AND INTENSITY WILL LIKELY VARY ACROSS THE AREA,
WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM PTK UP
THROUGH MBS. THIS WILL RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATIONS. BRIEF DRYING
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON.
A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND
FIELDS WILL LEAD WSW WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY.
FOR DTW...THE MOST PROBABLE WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z. THE ASCENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE BRIEF AT METRO IN
COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AFTER
15Z, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION SHIFT TO THE
WEST INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY.
* MODERATE IN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE IN CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS BEING EXCEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND, AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN GOVERNED BY AN OSCILLATING 140 KNOT UPPER JET CORE OF NORTH
PACIFIC ORIGIN. THIS ENVIRONMENT RESPONSIBLE FOR DIRECTING TWO
DISTINCT, DYNAMIC PV FEATURES TOWARD THE REGION. LEAD WAVE EJECTING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ON PACE TO ARRIVE
LOCALLY LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NO MEANINGFUL WX PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT
AS DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HOLD WITHIN EXISTING SURFACE RIDGING.
PERIOD OF DEEP FORCED ASCENT TIED TO A COMBINATION OF MOIST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND PRONOUNCED DCVA ALONG THE INBOUND HEIGHT FALL
GRADIENT WILL THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE LOWER PENINSULA DURING EARLY-MID
MORNING HOURS. MOST MEANINGFUL RESPONSE NOTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN LOWER MI, BUT SUFFICIENT FOR ALL AREAS TO WITNESS A 4-6
HOUR BURST OF SNOW BETWEEN ROUGHLY 1 AND 8 AM. POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
HOURLY SNOWFALL RATE TO EXCEED HALF INCH PER HOUR NORTH OF M-59.
THIS AFFORDS A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF AN INCH OR TWO ACROSS THIS
CORRIDOR, WITH MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR A NARROW AXIS NORTH OF M-46
TO POTENTIALLY EXCEED TO 2 INCHES. HEALTHY PROPORTION OF
ACCUMULATION CONFINED TO GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES GIVEN THE WARMER
PAVEMENT CONDITION AND AIR TEMP OF 31-32 DEGREES AND TRENDING HIGHER
WITH TIME, BUT EXPECTATION FOR A SLUSHY ACCUMULATION TO EXIST FOR
SOME DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE.
HIGH MAGNITUDE, IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AT THE FOREFRONT FOR THE FRIDAY
PERIOD. COLD FRONT ACCELERATES THROUGH MIDDAY. HIGH LIKELIHOOD FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT AS LAPSE RATES BRIEFLY
STEEPEN ALONG THE FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WITHIN THE IMMEDIATE COLD
AIR ADVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDING DATA SUPPORTIVE OF A
MIX OF RAIN, MELTING SNOW AND GRAUPEL WITHIN A CHAOTIC COVERAGE OF
HEALTHIER CONVECTIVE CORES AS DAYLIGHT TEMPERATURES RECOVER INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. NOTABLE STRENGTHENING OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELD AT THE SAME TIME WILL ESTABLISH A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY GUSTS, WITH PEAK GUST MAGNITUDE POTENTIALLY
ENHANCED BY THE SHOWER PRODUCTION. ABSENT OF A MORE MEANINGFUL
CONVECTIVE RESPONSE, A PEAK IN GUST MAGNITUDE WILL COMMENCE AS 925
MB SPEED REACHES NEAR 60 KNOTS AROUND DAYBREAK AND AGAIN AS MIXING
DEPTH PEAKS MID AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING UNDER ONGOING COLD AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC DESCENT. IN COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES, BELIEF THAT THE PROBABILITY IS HIGH ENOUGH TO REACH INTO
THE 55 TO 60 MPH RANGE TO HIGHLIGHT THE IMPACT WITH A HIGH
WIND WARNING HEADLINE.
MAIN BAROCLINIC ZONE SAGS TO THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY,
LEAVING A BRIEF STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL
IMPACTS OF THE DYNAMIC MID LEVEL SYSTEM FORECAST TO DEEPEN WHILE
EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND. INCREASING DEPTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM WILL DRAW THE ELEVATED WARM FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. SUSTAINED MOIST ISENTROPIC
ASCENT ALONG THE ACTIVE PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SLOPE WILL ESTABLISH
A BAND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN DURING THIS TIME.
SOME MODEL VARIABILITY YET AT THIS STAGE IN BOTH THE PLACEMENT AND
DURATION WINDOW. PROBABILISTIC DATA CURRENTLY INDICATES ROUGHLY A
50% CHANCE FOR 2" IN METRO DETROIT, 3" ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR AND
4+ INCHES ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB.
HIGHER IMPACT WINTER STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED NORTHWEST/WEST OF THE
AREA GIVEN PROJECTION OF LOW TRACK ACROSS THE HEART OF LOWER
MICHIGAN. ASSUMING A PROGRESSIVE NORTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE WARM
FRONT SUNDAY AS THE WARM SECTOR MAKES AGGRESSIVE INROADS ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK, FORECAST FAVORS A BRIEF DRYING AND NOTABLE WARMING
TREND FOR THE LATTER HALF OF SUNDAY. POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH
MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING ON PACE OF THE WARMING RELATIVE TO
LINGERING STABILITY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG THE TRAILING COLD
FRONT AND ALONG THE INTERFACE OF THE INBOUND LOW SOMETIME SUNDAY
NIGHT. INHERENTLY STRONG KINEMATIC FIELD, BUT LIKELY LACKING ON
INSTABILITY GIVEN UNFAVORABLE EARLY SEASON NOCTURNAL TIMING. TURNING
WINDY WITH INCREASING SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT AS COLDER AIR FLOODS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS THEN ENTRENCHED TUESDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES A SOLID 10+
DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. SINGLE DIGITS LOWS POSSIBLE SOME LOCATIONS
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
MARINE...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE EVENING WHICH WILL BRING A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AND
CENTRAL LAKE HURON THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND WILL RESULT IN A RAPID
UPTICK IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF
SUSTAINED WINDS TO GALES AND GUSTS TO HIGH-END GALES WILL BE LIKELY
WITH THIS SYSTEM, ALONG WITH SUSTAINED PERIODS OF SNOW, HEAVY AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. A VERY
STRONG LOW LEVEL JET FILLS IN SOUTH OF THE LOW ACROSS LAKE ERIE AND
POSSIBLY INTO LAKE ST. CLAIR. IF MIXING DEPTHS OVERACHIEVE, SPORADIC
GUSTS TO STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A SHORT FUSED UPGRADE TO A
STORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.
A BRIEF LULL IN GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDER THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES CENTRAL LAKE HURON, HOWEVER, COLD AIR
FILLS IN IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW WHICH WILL SUSTAIN
FAVORABLE MIXING DEPTHS AND QUICKLY BRING RENEWED GALES LEADING INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FOR THE LATER PART OF THE
DAY SATURDAY AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS.
A SECOND VERY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOOKING LIKELY TO IMPACT
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES ALONG WITH WINTER
WEATHER, INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR SUSTAINED HEAVY SNOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL LAKE HURON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 5 AM TO 10 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-422-441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......AM
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