420
FXUS63 KDTX 130758
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
358 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MOVES IN LATER THIS MORNING UNTIL MIDDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 2-4 INCHES CONFINED TO AREAS
ALONG/NORTH OF M-46.
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
UNTIL 10 PM FOR GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION, FOLLOWED BY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
- A BIT COOLER MONDAY, THEN TURNING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TUESDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND GUST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
987 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH WILL
TRACK ESE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ONCE WARMER AIR FILLS IN. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS (2-4
INCH RANGE) ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF M-46, THEREFORE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS INTENSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONSTRICTION, RESULTING IN PEAK PREVAILING WINDS NEAR 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
REGARDING THIS MORNING'S SNOWFALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FAST
APPROACHING THE TRI-CITIES, AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL BELOW FREEZING LAST EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS AT ONSET. SYSTEM
RELATIVE PERSPECTIVES ILLUSTRATE AN AXIS OF STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS IS POWERING THE UPSTREAM FLANKING ARC OF
SNOWFALL WHICH INCLUDES SEGMENTATION OF REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN
EXCESS OF 30 DBZ. THE INITIAL ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF STRONG UVVS AND THE VERTICAL
EXPANSION OF A SATURATED DGZ. AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
QPF WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS SNOWFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE
PEAK OF THE EVENT ROUGHLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOCAL
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO BRIEFLY APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR WITH SLRS AOB 15-1. THIS BURST
OF SNOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS, AND
LARGELY TARGET AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF M-46. AS MENTIONED EARLIER,
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGE IS 2-4 INCHES, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
APPROACHING 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH, TOTALS DROP-OFF
WITH 1-3 INCHES FROM M-59 TO I-69, WHILE SNOWFALL SHOULD LARGELY
HOLD BELOW 1 INCH SOUTH OF M-59. ROBUST WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES BY
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY SCATTERED WITH TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO OF CONCERN, THE HIGHLY AGEOSTROPHIC NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EFFECTUATES THE TRANSLATION OF A POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD. AS OF 0542Z, KFSD WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLED 118 KNOT WINDS AT
4 KFT AGL AND 60 KNOT WINDS AT 1 KFT AGL. DETERMINISTIC PROGS
INDICATE AN 850 MB JET OF 60-70 KNOTS MOVING OVERHEAD BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WEARS OFF BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z, WITH
NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES LINGERING UNTIL CLOSER TO 13Z OR 14Z. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVENTUALLY STEEPEN WHICH QUICKLY ACTIVATES
TURBULENT MIXING. GUSTS SHOULD BE STRONGEST DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM OFFERS A
RENEWED SPIKE IN LOWER COLUMN WINDS, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE ONE LAST
UPTICK UNTIL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NOTE THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL-MIXED PROFILES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT
KEEPING CONDITIONS BLUSTERY AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS SET TO
EXPIRE (10 PM).
ANTICYCLONIC CONFIGURATION DRAWS SEASONABLY COOL AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AND MUCH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DYNAMIC SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FORTUNATELY, SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD RESIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL/BANDING WHICH COULD BRING OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND THE UP. AN ELONGATED ISENTROPIC
RAMP WILL DRIVE MOIST ADIABATIC ASCENT AND SNOW GENERATION ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL HIGHLY
TRACK DEPENDENT AS THE SYSTEM'S VORTMAX RESIDES WELL OFF TO THE
WEST, BARELY REACHING THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE
SPEED AT WHICH THIS WAVE AMPLIFIES IS IMPRESSIVE, AS THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FROM SEATTLE TO THE CO/NM BORDER IN 24 HOURS.
ULTIMATELY, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS VERY BROAD WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 6 INCHES IN
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED RUN-TO-RUN ADJUSTMENTS IN
QPF PLACEMENT, BUT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK WOULD FAVOR A RISE IN
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN
LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. SHOULD ACCUMULATING SNOW
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT MAKES DEEP NORTHWARD INROADS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT STRUGGLES TO FAVORABLY EVOLVE THERMODYNAMICALLY,
LIMITING THE AVAILABILITY OF IN. OUTGOING FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PV ANOMALY
REORIENTS AND QUICKLY STRETCHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHWARD
INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS DELIVERS ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR AND
INCREASINGLY WINTRY CONDITIONS. AGGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION, AND A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW, WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER,
COMBINES FOR RENEWED GUSTINESS. FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS COULD ARISE
MONDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRASH 25C OVER 12 HOURS, FROM 8
AM TO 8 PM. MUCH COLDER AIR LINGERS TUESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDING
REACHING METRO DETROIT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW, AND LAKE
SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN CONNECTION.
MARINE
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID UPTICK IN
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF SUSTAINED
WINDS TO GALES AND GUSTS TO HIGH-END GALES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
TODAY , ALONG WITH SUSTAINED PERIODS OF SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE STRONGER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE ERIE, POSSIBLY EXTENDING UP THROUGH LAKE
ST. CLAIR, WHERE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TOWARDS STORM FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW REGARDING. FOR CENTRAL
LAKE HURON, A BRIEF LULL IN GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDER
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, COLD AIR FILLS IN IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW WHICH WILL SUSTAIN FAVORABLE MIXING DEPTHS AND
QUICKLY BRING RETURNING GALE POTENTIAL LEADING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. OVERALL, A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS.
A SECOND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOOKING LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG
WITH WINTER WEATHER. PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL LAKE HURON, PENDING THE FINAL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1139 PM EDT THU MAR 12 2026
AVIATION...
A STRONG COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN
MICHIGAN ON FRIDAY. A PERIOD OF GOOD ASCENT WILL TRACK ACROSS SE MI
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY/MID FRIDAY MORNING IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM,
RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF SNOW. SNOWFALL DURATION AND INTENSITY WILL
LIKELY VARY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE TO POSSIBLY
HEAVY SNOW POSSIBLE FROM PTK UP THROUGH MBS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SOME ACCUMULATIONS. BRIEF DRYING WILL BE FOLLOWED BY OCCASIONAL
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DEEPENING MIXED LAYER
COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL RESULT IN WSW
WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AT TIMES FRIDAY.
FOR DTW...THE MOST PROBABLE WINDOW FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL BE BETWEEN
08Z AND 14Z. THE ASCENT WILL BE A LITTLE MORE BRIEF AT METRO IN
COMPARISON TO LOCALS FARTHER NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP ACCUMULATIONS
UNDER AN INCH. WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY AFTER
15Z, WITH FREQUENT GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 KNOT RANGE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT WIND DIRECTION SHIFT TO THE
WEST INTO THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
* MODERATE IN PRECIP TYPE AS ALL SNOW FRIDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE IN CROSSWIND THRESHOLDS BEING EXCEEDED FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
AVIATION.....SC
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