665
FXUS63 KDTX 131657
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1257 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
UNTIL 10 PM FOR GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME
LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION, FOLLOWED BY SOME
EMBEDDED THUNDERSHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
- A BIT COOLER MONDAY, THEN TURNING SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER TUESDAY,
WITH ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN, SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
A LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE NORTHERN GREAT
LAKES DRIVES DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE WIND IS THE PRIMARY WEATHER HAZARD BEHIND THE SYSTEM
COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
AND WEAKLY FORCED LAKE EFFECT CLUSTERS TONIGHT. CLOUD CONDITIONS
RANGE FROM LOW END VFR TOWARD DTW TO MORE PERSISTENT MVFR TOWARD MBS
THROUGH THIS EVENING UNTIL WIND DIRECTION VEERS NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
THE NW DIRECTION IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR MVFR MAINTENANCE, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN A WEAKENING AND MORE NEUTRAL PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SATURDAY
MORNING.
FOR DTW... THE ONGOING BAND OF RAIN QUICKLY TRANSITIONS TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX WHILE DECREASING COVERAGE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 18Z
FORECAST. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS SET UP WITH GREATER COVERAGE
FARTHER NORTH FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 50 KNOTS DIMINISH GRADUALLY AFTER
SUNSET.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT.
* LOW FOR PRECIP TYPE AS ALL SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS WIND SHIFTS WESTERLY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 934 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
UPDATE...
THE FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WINDS HAS ALREADY PRODUCED WIND GUSTS OF
40-60 MPH. THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED STRONG WINDS ALOFT, 58
KNOTS AT 850 MB AND 43 KNOTS AT THE 925 MB LEVEL. THIS INTENSE,
NEGATIVE TILTED STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.
AS BOUNDARY LAYER DEPTHS INCREASE AND LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN, SHOULD SEE SOME NOTABLE CAPES OF 30-60 J/KG. ALTHOUGH THE
BULK OF THIS INSTABILITY RESIDES BELOW THE DGZ, ENHANCED WIND GUSTS
ARE STILL EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS.
UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS REMAIN VERY IMPRESSIVE, PROVIDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF 55-60 MPH GUSTS (TRENDING WESTERLY), WITH POTENTIAL TO
HIT 65 MPH IN LOCALIZED SPOTS LATE TODAY. THE ONLY MITIGATING FACTOR
IS THE SUB 990 MB LOW OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL BE SLOWLY
FILLING IN/WEAKENING. NONE-THE-LESS, THE HIGH WIND WARNING THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS LOOKS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE, AND UNFORTUNATELY,
POWER OUTAGES WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WILL ALLOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO EXPIRE ACROSS NORTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES. WHILE SOME SNOW WAS OBSERVED ON THE UNTREATED/LESS
TRAVELED ROADS, TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE DURING THE DAY, INTO THE 40S
FOR MOST PLACES.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 358 AM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DISCUSSION...
987 MB LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF DULUTH WILL
TRACK ESE INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN, THEN CHANGE OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON ONCE WARMER AIR FILLS IN. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS (2-4
INCH RANGE) ARE EXPECTED ALONG/NORTH OF M-46, THEREFORE A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE, A
HIGH WIND WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS INTENSE PRESSURE
GRADIENT CONSTRICTION, RESULTING IN PEAK PREVAILING WINDS NEAR 30
MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
REGARDING THIS MORNING'S SNOWFALL, ACCUMULATING SNOW IS FAST
APPROACHING THE TRI-CITIES, AND WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
TEMPERATURES REMAINED WELL BELOW FREEZING LAST EVENING AND THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH SUPPORTS ACCUMULATIONS AT ONSET. SYSTEM
RELATIVE PERSPECTIVES ILLUSTRATE AN AXIS OF STEEP ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WITHIN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS IS POWERING THE UPSTREAM FLANKING ARC OF
SNOWFALL WHICH INCLUDES SEGMENTATION OF REFLECTIVITY RETURNS IN
EXCESS OF 30 DBZ. THE INITIAL ROUNDS OF SNOW WILL BE MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF STRONG UVVS AND THE VERTICAL
EXPANSION OF A SATURATED DGZ. AS THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM APPROACHES,
QPF WILL BE MAXIMIZED AS SNOWFALL BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD WITH THE
PEAK OF THE EVENT ROUGHLY OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z. LOCAL
PROBABILISTIC ENSEMBLE DATA INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL RATES
TO BRIEFLY APPROACH AN INCH PER HOUR WITH SLRS AOB 15-1. THIS BURST
OF SNOW WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE BULK OF ACCUMULATIONS, AND
LARGELY TARGET AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF M-46. AS MENTIONED EARLIER,
EXPECTED SNOWFALL RANGE IS 2-4 INCHES, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS
APPROACHING 5 INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
PORTION OF MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTIES. FURTHER SOUTH, TOTALS DROP-OFF
WITH 1-3 INCHES FROM M-59 TO I-69, WHILE SNOWFALL SHOULD LARGELY
HOLD BELOW 1 INCH SOUTH OF M-59. ROBUST WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES BY
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A CHANGEOVER FROM SNOW TO RAIN.
PRECIPITATION BECOMES INCREASINGLY SCATTERED WITH TIME DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE DRY SLOT PUNCHES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO OF CONCERN, THE HIGHLY AGEOSTROPHIC NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EFFECTUATES THE TRANSLATION OF A POWERFUL LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELD. AS OF 0542Z, KFSD WSR-88D VWP DATA SAMPLED 118 KNOT WINDS AT
4 KFT AGL AND 60 KNOT WINDS AT 1 KFT AGL. DETERMINISTIC PROGS
INDICATE AN 850 MB JET OF 60-70 KNOTS MOVING OVERHEAD BY 12Z THIS
MORNING. THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION WEARS OFF BETWEEN 09Z AND 11Z, WITH
NEUTRAL STABILITY PROFILES LINGERING UNTIL CLOSER TO 13Z OR 14Z. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVENTUALLY STEEPEN WHICH QUICKLY ACTIVATES
TURBULENT MIXING. GUSTS SHOULD BE STRONGEST DURING THE MID-MORNING
HOURS DURING THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONGEST WIND FIELD, BUT REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING AGAIN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING TIME-FRAME. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SYSTEM OFFERS A
RENEWED SPIKE IN LOWER COLUMN WINDS, WHICH SHOULD DRIVE ONE LAST
UPTICK UNTIL RIDGING STARTS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NOTE THAT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WELL-MIXED PROFILES FOR MOST OF TONIGHT
KEEPING CONDITIONS BLUSTERY AFTER THE HIGH WIND WARNING IS SET TO
EXPIRE (10 PM).
ANTICYCLONIC CONFIGURATION DRAWS SEASONABLY COOL AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION WITH DRIER AND MUCH LESS WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY.
ACTIVE PATTERN RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER
DYNAMIC SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION.
FORTUNATELY, SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD RESIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL/BANDING WHICH COULD BRING OVER 2 FEET OF SNOW
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LOWER AND THE UP. AN ELONGATED ISENTROPIC
RAMP WILL DRIVE MOIST ADIABATIC ASCENT AND SNOW GENERATION ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 06Z SUNDAY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE STILL HIGHLY
TRACK DEPENDENT AS THE SYSTEM'S VORTMAX RESIDES WELL OFF TO THE
WEST, BARELY REACHING THE LEE-SIDE OF THE ROCKIES BY 12Z SUNDAY. THE
SPEED AT WHICH THIS WAVE AMPLIFIES IS IMPRESSIVE, AS THE BASE OF THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH DIGS FROM SEATTLE TO THE CO/NM BORDER IN 24 HOURS.
ULTIMATELY, CONSENSUS GUIDANCE IS VERY BROAD WITH LOCAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS RANGING FROM A HALF INCH IN THE SOUTH TO AROUND 6 INCHES IN
ALONG THE FAR NORTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. NO HEADLINES ARE
NEEDED AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE ANTICIPATED RUN-TO-RUN ADJUSTMENTS IN
QPF PLACEMENT, BUT A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TRACK WOULD FAVOR A RISE IN
FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS. AS WITH TODAY'S SYSTEM, A WARM FRONT LIFTS IN
LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO RAIN. SHOULD ACCUMULATING SNOW
DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA, A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING UNTIL THE
WARM FRONT MAKES DEEP NORTHWARD INROADS. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT
THE ENVIRONMENT STRUGGLES TO FAVORABLY EVOLVE THERMODYNAMICALLY,
LIMITING THE AVAILABILITY OF IN. OUTGOING FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE ACTUAL SURFACE LOW CROSSES THROUGH MONDAY AS THE PV ANOMALY
REORIENTS AND QUICKLY STRETCHES FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY NORTHWARD
INTO HUDSON BAY. THIS DELIVERS ANOTHER BLAST OF COLD AIR AND
INCREASINGLY WINTRY CONDITIONS. AGGRESSIVE COLD ADVECTION, AND A
TRANSITION FROM RAIN BACK TO SNOW, WITH PERHAPS SOME THUNDER,
COMBINES FOR RENEWED GUSTINESS. FLASH FREEZE CONCERNS COULD ARISE
MONDAY NIGHT AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRASH 25C OVER 12 HOURS, FROM 8
AM TO 8 PM. MUCH COLDER AIR LINGERS TUESDAY WITH LAKE EFFECT BANDING
REACHING METRO DETROIT GIVEN THE CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW, AND LAKE
SUPERIOR-MICHIGAN CONNECTION.
MARINE...
A SEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN AND CENTRAL LAKE HURON THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
PRODUCED A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK, WHICH WILL RESULT IN A RAPID UPTICK IN
WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS THROUGH THIS MORNING. PERIODS OF SUSTAINED
WINDS TO GALES AND GUSTS TO HIGH-END GALES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
TODAY , ALONG WITH SUSTAINED PERIODS OF SNOW, HEAVY AT TIMES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THE STRONGER WIND
GUST POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO BE CO-LOCATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS LAKE ERIE, POSSIBLY EXTENDING UP THROUGH LAKE
ST. CLAIR, WHERE SOME ISOLATED GUSTS UP TOWARDS STORM FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME REMAINS LOW REGARDING. FOR CENTRAL
LAKE HURON, A BRIEF LULL IN GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE DIRECTLY UNDER
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AS IT PASSES CENTRAL LAKE HURON IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, COLD AIR FILLS IN IN THE WAKE
OF THE DEPARTING LOW WHICH WILL SUSTAIN FAVORABLE MIXING DEPTHS AND
QUICKLY BRING RETURNING GALE POTENTIAL LEADING INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. OVERALL, A GALE WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FOR THE LATER PART OF
THE DAY SATURDAY AND WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH WIND SPEEDS.
A SECOND STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOOKING LIKELY TO IMPACT THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CHANCES TO SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF GALES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, ALONG
WITH WINTER WEATHER. PROLONGED HEAVY SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
NORTHERN OR CENTRAL LAKE HURON, PENDING THE FINAL TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......SF
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
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