705
FXUS63 KDTX 132247
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
647 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN UNTIL 10 PM FOR CONTINUED GUSTS OF 50 TO 65 MPH.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARRIVES SATURDAY
NIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF M-59), CHANGING OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY
MORNING WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLEET OR LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE DURING
THE TRANSITION.
- EMBEDDED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT.
- WINDY AND TURNING COLDER ON MONDAY WITH WIND GUSTS OF 45+ MPH
POSSIBLE.
- WIND CHILLS DOWN AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY
REACHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION
A COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER LAKE HURON WILL DEPART TO THE
EAST TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS A STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS SRN
LOWER MI WITHIN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. THERE ARE INDICATIONS
IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGESTING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN WIND GUST POTENTIAL BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z BEFORE THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. THIS WILL THEN LEAD TO A STEADY DROP IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
DURING THE NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SUBTLE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR
ADVECTION WILL LIFT CLOUD BASES, LEADING TO MAINLY VFR BASED CLOUDS
THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL RELAX DURING THE NIGHT
WHILE CONTINUED DRY AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. THESE
FACTORS SUPPORT A LIGHT NIGHT CLEARING TREND.
FOR DTW... UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS AND MOST RECENT MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A SLIGHT VEERING OF THE WINDS TO MORE WESTERLY THIS
EVENING. MIXING PROFILES ON MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONTINUED GUSTS AROUND 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EVENING, WITH A MORE NOTABLE DROP IN WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS EXPECTED
AFTER 08Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
* HIGH FOR EXCEEDING CROSSWIND THRESHOLD THIS EVENING, MODERATE
OVERNIGHT, LOW AFTER 08Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 323 PM EDT FRI MAR 13 2026
DISCUSSION...
STRONG SHOWERS ALONG THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE EARLIER IN THE DAY
ALLOWED WINDS TO GUST 60-70 MPH ACROSS WASHTENAW/WAYNE/LENAWEE/MONROE
COUNTIES, AS TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S, ALLOWING
FOR BETTER MIXING. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOLID LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRONG WESTERLY WINDS GOING INTO THE EVENING
HOURS, AND NO CHANGES TO ONGOING HIGH WIND WARNING. ATLHOUGH, THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA MAY COME UP SHORT FOR WIND GUST CRITERIA.
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE LOW AND ENOUGH COLD AIR MOVING BACK IN THIS
EVENING TO SUPPORT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE THUMB REGION BEFORE
ENDING. ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 INCH SEEM REASONABLE, OTHERWISE
MINOR/IF ANY ACCUMULATIONS ELSEWHERE.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH QUIETER WEATHER DAY. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
(1028-1030 MB) WILL QUICKLY BE MOVING EAST SATURDAY EVENING,
REACHING SOUTHERN NEW YORK AROUND MIDNIGHT. THUS, THE MARGINAL COLD
AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN WILL NOT BE ABLE TO
HOLD FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. STRONG PACIFIC SHORTWAVE/JET DIVING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND REACHING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING, AS NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA BEGINS
TO PHASE. STOUT WARM ADVECTION PATTERN AND 700 MB FGEN SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOKS TO SUPPORT A PERIOD OF SNOW, WITH THE MAIN FOCUS ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-69. BULK OF CURRENT EURO ENSEMBLES SUGGEST 1-4 INCH TYPE
SNOWFALL BEFORE SUFFICIENT WARMING AND THE FORCING LIFTS NORTH.
FURTHER WARMING AND MOISTURE ADVECTION (PW VALUES AOA 1 INCH)
PROGGED TO STREAM THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MOVE INTO LOWER MICHIGAN ON
SUNDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA SHOULD BE ABLE TO GET INTO THE DRY WARM
SECTOR. THE ISSUE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY IS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION, AND MAY HOVER OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES, DELAYING THE RAIN SHIELD AND POSSIBLE
CONVECTION WITH THE COLD FRONT. EXACT TIMING AND POSITIONING WILL BE
CRITICAL, AS WE DO GET SOME MODEST INSTABILITY DEVELOPING WITH
STRONG WIND FIELDS/LOW LEVEL JET (50-60 KNOTS). STILL, RIGHT NOW THE
FAVORED TIME LOOKS TO BE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH MINIMIZES THE
SEVERE THREAT. POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ON MONDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT WINDY CONDITIONS,
BUT BULK OF EURO ENSEMBLES ONLY INDICATED LOW END WIND ADVISORY AS
THIS POINT. GOOD LATE MARCH ARCTIC SHOT OF COLD BEHIND THIS LOW WILL
LIKELY HOLD MAXES IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S ON TUESDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS
RESIDE IN THE NEGATIVE MID TO UPPER TEENS. WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
QUICKLY KICKS BACK IN FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD HOWEVER.
MARINE...
A UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL MICHIGAN TONIGHT
BEFORE EXITING INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE
STRONGEST GUSTS OF THIS EVENT HAS BEEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SOUTH
OF THE LIE, TIED TO WHERE A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET RESIDES IN
CONJUNCTION WITH PERIODIC RAIN SHOWERS WHICH HAVE BROUGHT SOME OF
THESE STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO HIGH-END GALES. HIGH-END GALES WITH AN
ISOLATED GUST TO STORM FORCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE ERIE
AND LAKE ST. CLAIR THROUGH TONIGHT UNTIL LOW PRESSURE DEPARTS. WILL
HOLD OFF ON ANY UPGRADE TO A STORM WARNING FOR THESE LOCATIONS GIVEN
THE BREVITY OF THE STORM FORCE GALES, HOWEVER, WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FOR ANY POTENTIAL REGARDING A SHORT-
FUSED UPGRADE. A LULL IN GALES IS EXPECTED DIRECTLY UNDERNEATH THE
CENTER OF THE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL LAKE HURON, BEFORE GALES FILL BACK
IN AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INCREASES IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL LOCATIONS UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING.
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY,
REDUCING WIND SPEEDS AND MAINTAINING A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER
WINDS. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO LAKE HURON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS INITIALLY BRINGS A SURGE OF WARM AIR ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE STABLE OVER-LAKE CONDITIONS, WHICH WILL
ACT TO HELP KEEP WIND GUSTS BELOW GALES AT LEAST FOR THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES. AS THIS LOW DEPARTS, ARCTIC AIR FILLS IN, WHICH WILL
MIX OUT THE MARINE LAYER, LIKELY PRODUCING GUST TO TO GALES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......AM
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