476
FXUS63 KDTX 141127
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
727 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARRIVES TONIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF M-
59), BUT AREAS NORTH OF M-46 COULD SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3
INCHES.
- SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SLEET OR LIGHT ICING POSSIBLE DURING THE TRANSITION,
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-69.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- WINDY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, AND ALSO TURNING MUCH
COLDER AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE 50S INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY
EVENING.
- WIND CHILLS MINIMIZE AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY AND THE BULK OF THIS EVENING
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LIGHT W-NW WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON
TODAY WILL QUICKLY FLIP TO EASTERLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PLAINS. LEAD WING OF ASCENT ALONG AN
ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL LEAD TO AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
RAMPING UP MAINLY BETWEEN 06Z AND 10Z, BUT COULD START AS EARLY AS
04Z. HIGHER INTENSITY SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ACROSS FNT AND
MBS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHILE EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE IN
SPEED. POCKETS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL EXIST UNDER THE HEAVIER SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT CEILINGS LOOK TO BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR A BRIEF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR ICE TOWARDS
THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD BEFORE PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH, WHICH
AGAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS FNT AND MBS.
FOR DTW...BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
MAINLY AFTER 06Z WITH A POSSIBLE BRIEF TRANSITION TO SLEET AND/OR
FREEZING DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME
IF THERE WILL BE MUCH PRECIPITATION ACROSS DTW, WHICH COULD REMAIN
SNOW AS AREA OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS TO THE NORTH BEFORE ANY
TRANSITION MAY OCCUR.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AOB 5,000 FEET TONIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR SNOW P-TYPE TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 452 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DISCUSSION...
A REPRIEVE FROM HIGH-IMPACT WEATHER EMERGES TODAY AS ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW STABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE FOR MOST OF THE GREAT LAKES AREA. LOW-
LEVEL JET RESPONSIBLE FOR PRIOR HIGH-MAGNITUDE GUSTINESS HAS EXITED
WITH THE DEPARTURE OF FRIDAY'S SYSTEM. THIS ENSURES MUCH WEAKER
GUSTS (SUB-20 MPH) BY SUNRISE, IN SPITE OF PERSISTENT SURFACE-BASED
NOCTURNAL MIXING. SUBTLE MID-UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE
OVERSHADOWED BY MORE PRONOUNCED SUB-700 MB (SUB-10 KFT AGL)
SHORTWAVE RIDGING. GRADIENT WINDS WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS, VEERING NORTHWESTERLY, THEN BECOMING BRIEFLY CALM THIS
AFTERNOON AS 1025 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERS OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
EARLY MORNING STRATOCUMULUS, TIED TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF CYCLONIC
TRAJECTORIES, ERODES BY LATE MORNING, BUT SKIES FILL BACK IN MIDDAY
AS MID-LEVEL MOISTENING GETS UNDERWAY. TEMPERATURES RUN A FEW
DEGREES COOLER TODAY THAN MID-MARCH CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
CONDITIONS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
DYNAMIC SYSTEM BEGINS TO IMPACT THE REGION. AN UPSTREAM VORTMAX
CORRESPONDING WITH AN INBOUND PACIFIC NORTHWEST SPEED MAX REMAINS
OVER WESTERN CONUS TONIGHT, BARELY REACHING THE HIGH PLAINS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. HOWEVER, MODELS MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY IN THE RAPID
AMPLIFICATION OF THIS WAVE AS THE BASE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH DIGS
FROM SEATTLE TO DENVER IN JUST 24 HOURS. THIS SUPPORTS THE EXTENSIVE
BROADENING OF THE SYSTEM'S LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW-FIELD, MARKED BY
CYCLONIC FLOW EXTENDING FROM THE GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY
09Z SUNDAY. LOCALLY, SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN SHOULD RESIDE WITHIN A BROAD
REGION OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM'S ELEVATED WARM
FRONT, LEADING TO THE ONSET OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. TIME-FRAME FOR
THIS ACTIVITY TO START IS MOST LIKELY BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z SUNDAY.
ACCUMULATIONS WILL VARY WIDELY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING SINCE TEMPERATURES ALONG/SOUTH OF I-96/I-696 SHOULD
HOLD ABOVE FREEZING, FAVORING MELTING SNOWFALL. SUB-FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT, ALONG WITH
INCREASING DURATION. ACCORDINGLY, THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS SHOULD
RESIDE NORTH OF M-46 WITH 1-3 INCHES POSSIBLE DUE TO READINGS
HOLDING BELOW 32F UNTIL CLOSER TO 15Z SUNDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING
DRIZZLE/RAIN BETWEEN M-59 AND M-46 AS THE WARMER SOUTHEAST FLOW
SURGES IN. LIGHT ICING (TRACE TO ONE OR TWO HUNDREDTHS) WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS CORRIDOR, FALLING ON TOP OF A COATING TO HALF
AN INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL. A SHORT-DURATION (LESS THAN 12 HOUR) WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SOME PORTION OF THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z SUNDAY, PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WRAPPING UP AS
WARM ADVECTION ESCALATES, DENOTED BY 925-700 MB MEAN FLOW OF 55+
KNOTS ORIENTING SSW. THIS LIFTS 925 MB TEMPERATURES FROM NEGATIVE
(CELSIUS) AROUND 09Z SUNDAY TO (POSITIVE) DOUBLE DIGITS AFTER 18Z.
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE DETERMINISTICS WITH THE 990 MB SURFACE LOW
STILL DEEPENING AS IT CROSSES THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, THEN TURNS
NNE. THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER CHICAGO AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN
SUNDAY EVENING WITHIN A POWERFUL BAROCLINIC ZONE. SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S (AND DEWPOINTS OVER 50F) BY
SUNSET. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT APPEARS TO TRY AND OUTPACE THE
SURFACE REFLECTION AS IT TRANSLATES INTO NORTHERN LOWER. GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT ENVIRONMENT, STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE FRONTAL
SLOPE, AND REMAIN LINEARLY ORGANIZED ONCE BOUNDARY WORKS ACROSS
LOWER MICHIGAN, NOCTURNALLY. HIGH-SHEAR/LOW-CAPE ENVIRONMENT
SUGGESTS THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE THREAT AS STRONG DAMAGING WINDS,
WITH QLCS-STYLE SPIN-UP TORNADOES A LESSER (AND MUCH MORE ISOLATED)
CONCERN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRE-FRONTAL WARM-SECTOR CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL GIVEN PRE-EXISTING CAP.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING MONDAY MORNING, BUT
THE DRY SLOT WILL BE FAST APPROACHING. AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH ALOFT WITH ITS MERIDONALLY-ORIENTED 160 KNOT JET
STREAK ADJACENT. ARCTIC AIR IMMEDIATELY FILTERS IN DURING THE DAY
DENOTED BY MORNING TEMPERATURES DROPPING FROM THE 50S INTO THE 20S
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. A SUPERSATURATED CLOUD LAYER BENEATH THE
REORIENTING PV ANOMALY COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SPRINKLES/FLURRIES, THEN
RISING CHANCES FOR PERIODS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
SNOW SQUALL GIVEN THE KINEMATICS. ADDITIONALLY, THE WELL-MIXED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL EASILY TRANSFER MOMENTUM TO SUPPORT GUSTS OF 40-
50 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
MUCH COLDER AIR LINGERS TUESDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW LAKE EFFECT
SNOW BANDS TO REACH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. A CLIPPER
SYSTEM RACES ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN WEDNESDAY WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
SNOWFALL. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIMITED GIVEN THE SHORT DURATION AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES. MUCH WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY.
MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE TO RAPIDLY DEPART INTO THE CONTINENTAL NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKE LATE THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO
QUICKLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AND WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS
BY THE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SECOND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO LAKE HURON
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS INITIALLY BRINGS A SURGE OF WARM AIR ON
SUNDAY WHICH WILL PRODUCE STABLE OVER-LAKE CONDITIONS. HIGHER
STABILITY WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE THE
WARMEST AIR ENTERS, WHICH WILL WORK TO KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW GALES
AS AS STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ENTERS. FARTHER NORTH, MORE NEUTRAL LOW-
LEVEL PROFILES MAY PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR GALES STARTING EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT
LAKES, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH COLD ARCTIC
AIR THEN WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL THEN BRING THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR GALE
INCLUDING SOME HIGH END GALES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY, PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM PENDING THE FINAL POSITION OF THE LOW. INITIALLY ON SUNDAY,
FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET TO SNOW WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS LAKE
HURON, WITH A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW EXPECTED AS ARCTIC AIR ENTERS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......AM
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