098
FXUS63 KDTX 150339
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1139 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ARRIVES TONIGHT (MAINLY NORTH OF M-59), BUT
AREAS NORTH OF M-46 COULD SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-3 INCHES.
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT FOR THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB.
- SNOW CHANGES OVER TO RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF
SLEET OR SNOW PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN DURING THE TRANSITION,
MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-69. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB EXPIRES AT 11 AM.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH WIND DEVELOPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT 11 AM FOR THE AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-69,
INCLUDING METRO DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH LOWER MI SUNDAY
NIGHT, WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE.
- WINDY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE, AND ALSO TURNING MUCH
COLDER WITH SNOW SHOWERS AS TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE 50S INTO THE
20S BY MONDAY EVENING.
- WIND CHILLS MINIMIZE AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION
MID LEVEL FRONTAL FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE DURING THE NIGHT
AS IT SLOWLY SHIFTS NORTHWARD. WHILE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR HAS MAINTAIN
JUST VIRGA OVER MOST OF SE MI, ONGOING STRENGTHENING OF THE ELEVATED
FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT LOW LEVEL MOISTENING WILL ALLOW SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC BY THE START OF THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE, FROM PTK NORTHWARD.
THE INCREASED STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS NORTHWARD WILL
RESULT IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF SNOW AT MBS OVERNIGHT. IN FACT,
THE INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY FLOW ATOP THE SHALLOW STABLE LAYER WILL
DRIVE A PLUME OF WARM AIR ALOFT LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUN MORNING. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET AT MBS, WITH A
LOWER CHANCE AT FNT. GROWTH OF THE DAYTIME MIXED LAYER WITHIN THE
WARM SECTOR ACROSS SE MI SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT STRONG
SOUTHERLY WINDS, WITH GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS AT TIME.
FOR DTW...RECENT GUIDANCE IS NOW INDICATING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR
SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF DTW.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MODERATE IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 838 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
UPDATE...
THE GOING FORECAST REMAINS VALID WITH NO NEED FOR ANY FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS THIS EVENING. THE 00Z DTX SOUNDING DID HAVE QUITE A BIT
OF DRY AIR BELOW 700MB. THE REGIONAL RADAR DOES HOWEVER SUPPORT
INCREASING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ONGOING ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. WHILE
THERE IS STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF VIRGA, SFC OBS INDICATE LIGHT
SNOW IS REACHING THE GROUND IN FAR SW LOWER MI. THE 18Z HI RES SUITE
ALSO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CURRENT SNOW AND ICE TOTALS, INCLUDING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA ACROSS THE NORTH.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
DISCUSSION...
FLEETING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE PRODUCED A PLEASANT DAY BY
RECENT STANDARDS; HIGHLIGHTED BY DRY WEATHER, SLOWLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS, AND MUCH REDUCED WIND SPEED. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND
40 ARE STILL A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR MID MARCH.
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ARE SIGNS OF THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ALREADY ON OUR DOORSTEP. MID
AFTERNOON SATELLITE, RADAR, AND SURFACE OBS SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE
PATTERN OF VIRGA JUST SOUTH OF THE IN/OH BORDER THAT STEADILY
MIGRATES INTO LOWER MI THIS EVENING. ONE OF THE FORECAST CHALLENGES
IS EVALUATING ONSET TIMING AS LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS WHILE THE
BAND CONTINUES TO MOVE STEADILY NORTHWARD. CONSENSUS OF 12Z
DETERMINISTIC MODEL RUNS AND HREF MEAN AGREE WELL ON A SCENARIO THAT
JUST GRAZES METRO DETROIT WITH A DUSTING OF SNOW THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASES CONSIDERABLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT. FORCING EVOLVES FROM ELEVATED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
A STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION TO MORE OF A PURELY LOW LEVEL JET
DRIVEN SCENARIO AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES AFTER
MIDNIGHT. GRADUALLY DECREASING STABILITY LEADS TO A BURST OF HIGHER
SNOWFALL RATE NORTH OF I-69 AND EVENTUALLY A CELLULAR/SHOWERY WINTRY
MIX AS THE 50 KT LOW LEVEL DRIVES THE WARM NOSE NORTHWARD. SNOW AND
WINTRY MIX ARE TOO BRIEF FOR A HEADLINE ALONG THE I-69 CORRIDOR.
FARTHER NORTH, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI
CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB WHERE A QUICK ACCUMULATION UP TO 3 INCHES
OCCURS WITH THE MIX OF SLEET/PELLETS AND FREEZING RAIN TOWARD
SUNRISE. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE MORNING UNTIL SURFACE
TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.
PRECIPITATION EXITS NORTHWARD BY NOON AS THE SYSTEM WARM SECTOR
BUILDS INTO LOWER MI AND EXCHANGES WINTER WEATHER FOR WIND GUST
HAZARDS. THE KEY HERE IS DEVELOPMENT OF A SSW WIND DIRECTION THAT
NEUTRALIZES THE GREAT LAKES STABILIZING INFLUENCE ON THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. A MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON TIME WINDOW IS AVAILABLE FOR
DAYTIME HEATING, AND THIS REFLECTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOWER
CLOUDS/CUMULUS IN CAM OUTPUT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS DEVELOPING
AS A RESULT OF WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS GAINING ACCESS
TO THE 50+ KT SW LOW LEVEL JET. SURFACE WIND GUSTS EASILY REACH THE
45 MPH WIND ADVISORY THRESHOLD, ESPECIALLY BY MID AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH OF THE I-
69 CORRIDOR THAT THE FULL WARM SECTOR IS ABLE TO REACH, HOWEVER IT
IS LIKELY THAT THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND
EXTENDED IN TIME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONT, THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
FIRMLY ROOTED ACROSS SE MI. THE ADVISORY WORTHY SSW WIND IS
PROJECTED TO HELP LIFT HIGH TEMPERATURES TOWARD 70 DEGREES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FROM THE OHIO BORDER UP TO THE NORTHERN SUBURBS OF
DETROIT. HREF MEAN PRODUCES ACCOMPANYING SURFACE TD IN THE MID 50S
BY SUNDAY EVENING TO SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. THE MARGINAL TO SLIGHT RISK IS MAINTAINED
IN THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FOR LOWER MI OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE
STRONG WIND PROFILE UP AGAINST LOWER INSTABILITY PROSPECTS. THE
SYSTEM STRUGGLES TO MAINTAIN BOTH SURFACE BASED AND MUCAPE AFTER
SUNSET, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SURFACE WIND PROJECTIONS
INDICATE A TENDENCY TO PINCH OFF THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. EVEN SO, ANY SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WILL HAVE
DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IN THE STRONGLY FORCED ENVIRONMENT UNTIL THE
FRONT SWEEPS EASTWARD MONDAY MORNING.
MORNING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 50 FALL RAPIDLY TO BELOW FREEZING
MONDAY AFTERNOON IN A RETURN TO MID MARCH WINTER CONDITIONS IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THE INBOUND COLD AIR AND STRONG LOW PRESSURE FORCING
SET UP A LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWER/SQUALL SCENARIO FOR THE AFTERNOON
INTO MONDAY EVENING. WIND ADVISORY WORTHY WIND GUSTS CONTINUING
THROUGH THE DAY ENHANCE THE SQUALL POTENTIAL WHEN COMBINED WITH MID
MARCH DAYTIME INSTABILITY. THE COLD AIR SURGE THEN TAKES
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE TEENS AND WIND CHILL TO NEAR TO BELOW
ZERO FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER WINDS,
WITH WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS RAPIDLY RAMPING UP THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRAVELS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRAVEL FROM
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TOMORROW EVENING, STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES IN ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY MONDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THIS INITIALLY BRINGS A SURGE OF WARM AIR ON SUNDAY WHICH
WILL PRODUCE STABLE OVER-LAKE CONDITIONS. HIGHER STABILITY WILL
RESIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WHERE THE WARMEST AIR ENTERS,
WHICH WILL WORK TO KEEP GUSTS JUST BELOW GALES AS AS STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET ENTERS. FARTHER NORTH, MORE NEUTRAL LOW-LEVEL PROFILES
WILL PROVIDE BETTER CHANCES FOR GALES STARTING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.
AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE GREAT LAKES, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR THEN
WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL THEN BRING THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR GALES INCLUDING
SOME HIGH END GALES THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE GREAT LAKES.
ADDITIONALLY, PROLONGED WINTER WEATHER WILL BE LIKELY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. SNOW INITIAL MOVES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES TOMORROW MORNING, WITH SLEET/FREEZING RAIN SETTING UP OVER
NORTH LAKE HURON LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY, RAIN TO THE SOUTH. SNOW
SHOWERS, INCLUDING SOME EMBEDDED SNOW SQUALLS, ARE THEN LIKELY
MONDAY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ENTERS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-
441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......AM
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