123
FXUS63 KDTX 151005
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
605 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TRI CITIES AND
NORTHERN THUMB UNTIL 11 AM THIS MORNING.
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WIND ADVISORY
BEGINNING AT 11 AM FOR AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-69, INCLUDING
METRO DETROIT TO THE OHIO BORDER.
- A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH LOWER MICHIGAN
TONIGHT, WITH SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A MARGINAL RISK
IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE
MAIN THREAT.
- WINDY MONDAY WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE AS ARCTIC AIR SENDS
TEMPERATURES FALL FROM THE 50S MONDAY MORNING INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY
EVENING. ARCTIC AIR ALSO BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS.
- WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
AVIATION
AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE TERMINALS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH TODAY, LEADING TO A TRANSITION FROM LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES, TO
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE, TO A FEW (LIQUID) RAIN SHOWERS, AND
THEN BECOMING DRY AND GUSTY FOR THE AFTERNOON. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
AND MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT THE METRO DETROIT TERMINALS SHOULD
REMAIN TOO WARM FOR MUCH FROZEN PRECIPITATION THE REST OF THE
MORNING BEFORE BEING THE FIRST TO DRY OUT. FURTHER NORTH, ESPECIALLY
MBS, SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE MVFR/IFR SNOWFALL UNTIL THE
HYDROMETEOR TRANSITION GETS UNDERWAY. IT WILL ALSO EXHIBIT A LONGER
PERIOD OF MVFR, WHILE THE OTHER TERMINALS MOSTLY HOLD AT VFR. STRONG
WARM ADVECTION WITH INTENSE LOW-LEVEL WINDS ALLOWS GUSTS TO EXCEED
30 KNOTS BY THIS AFTERNOON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSES LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT, DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. VERY GUSTY SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE, AND LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 50 KNOTS POSSIBLY AFFECTING SOME
OF THE TERMINALS.
FOR DTW...A FEW MORNING FLURRIES FOLLOWED BY A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO,
THEN TRENDING DRY AND WINDY FOR THE AFTERNOON THEN INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. A LINE OF GUSTY SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WORK THROUGH
FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT. CONVECTIVE GUSTS POSSIBLY APPROACH 50
KNOTS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 THIS MORNING.
* MODERATE FOR SNOW AS THE PRECIP TYPE EARLY THIS MORNING, THEN HIGH
FOR RAIN AFTER 12Z BEFORE DRYING OUT.
* LOW IN THUNDER LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 542 AM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DISCUSSION...
SNOW IS ONGOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST EARLY THIS
MORNING AFTER A DECENT PERIOD OF VIRGA SHOWERS EARLIER IN THE NIGHT.
THE WARM NOSE WILL MAKE GREATER INROADS INTO MICHIGAN THROUGH THE
MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE DYNAMIC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAWING
CLOSER, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MAIN AREA ISENTROPIC ASCENT
FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS REMAIN MOSTLY ON TRACK WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE PUSHING TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS UP SLIGHTLY. ISOLATED
LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN MIDLAND AND BAY COUNTY REACHING NEAR 4
INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AND TO AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE DOWN
TOWARDS THE I-69 CORRIDOR. THERE REMAINS A 2 TO 3 HOUR WINDOW FOR
WINTRY MIX, INCLUDING LIGHT FREEZING RAIN, POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 8
AM FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-69 WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE AT OR JUST
BELOW FREEZING. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 11
AM THIS MORNING.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE COMING TO AN END BETWEEN 11 AM AND 2 PM WITH
MAYBE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL THEN TRANSITION TO WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WHILE
A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET OF 50-60+ KNOT JET AT 850MB ARRIVES EAST
OF THE LOW MOVING THROUGH IL/WI AND SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL
BECOME MORE SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND OPEN THE
DOOR FOR BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL THAT WILL TAP INTO THESE VERY
STRONG LOWER LEVEL WIND FIELDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PRESENT A PERIOD
OF MIXING UP TO 5KFT OR GREATER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WHICH SHOULD
EASILY BRING DOWN WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH OR GREATER. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE FOR THIS RESIDES IN THE WARM SECTOR, WHICH THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, LOOKS TO REACH UP TO AROUND THE I-69 CORRIDOR BEFORE
EVENTUALLY BEING DRAW FURTHER NORTH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SLIGHTLY BETTER STABILITY NORTH OF I-69 UNTIL THE LATER PART OF THE
NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION BRING
BETTER MIXING HERE. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXPANDING THE WIND ADVISORY
NORTH WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE GIVEN THAT IF BETTER POTENTIAL
ARRIVES EARLIER, IT WOULD BE TOWARDS THE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY
EVENING HOURS. BUT, IT DOES APPEAR THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN
EXPANSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY TO SOME EXTENT AND POSSIBLE
EXTENSION IN TIME FOR THE CURRENT ADVISORY INTO MONDAY AS COLD
FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND COLD ADVECTION IS ESTABLISHED.
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S UP
THROUGH THE I-69 AND NEAR 70 DEGREES ALONG THE SOUTHERN BORDER. WINDS
WILL ALSO USHER IN DEWPOINTS TO AROUND 50 DEGREES BY THIS EVENING.
THIS MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND PUSH THROUGH SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN BETWEEN 2 AM AND 8 AM TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THE
ENVIRONMENT THE LINEAR SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN WILL BE ONE OF HIGH SHEAR, BUT WILL BE LACKING IN
INSTABILITY AS BEST LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE GETS PINCHED OFF AND SOME
DEGREE OF NOCTURNAL STABILITY SETS IN. THE LESS IMPRESSIVE
ENVIRONMENT HAS PROMPTED A REMOVAL OF THE SLIGHT RISK, BUT HAS LEFT
THE MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. GIVEN THE
WIND FIELDS ALONE AND STRONG FORCING WITH THE FRONT, ANY CONVECTION
THAT CAN MANAGE TO GET SURFACE BASED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS. THE LACK OF SURFACE INSTABILITY ALSO LOWERS
THE TORNADO THREAT AS WELL.
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION MONDAY WITH AN
ASSOCIATED S-N ORIENTED 160 KNOT UPPER JET STREAKING OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC AIR WILL QUICKLY DRIVE INTO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES FALLING FROM THE
50S IN THE MORNING TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
LOW 20S AND TEENS BY MONDAY EVENING. COMBINATION OF THE COLD AIR AND
KINEMATICS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A STRONG LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE. THE
RESULT WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SQUALLS AS A LITTLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DEVELOP WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THE POSSIBLE EXTENSION OF THE WIND ADVISORY
INTO MONDAY WILL ALSO PLAY INTO THE SNOW SQUALL POTENTIAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON.
ARCTIC AIR WILL SEND WIND CHILLS DOWN INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS TO
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW FREEZING MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. A
CHANCE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY CARRY INTO TUESDAY MORNING
AS COLD AIR LINGERS OVER THE REGION. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWING
THROUGH MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY PRESENTING A ANOTHER PERIOD OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO BE LIMITED GIVEN THE SHORTER
DURATION AND WARMER TEMPERATURES. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
MARINE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES IN ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BRING
A WIDE ARRAY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, INCLUDING EXTENDED WINDOWS FOR
GUST TO GALES, RAIN SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED
FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CHANCES.
FOR THIS MORNING... A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL PUSH FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, STALLING OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME GUSTS
TO NEAR GALES OR A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
WARM FRONT IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON, HOWEVER, THE
INCREASING OVER LAKE STABILITY WITH THE SURGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES
PRECLUDES ANY EARLY START TO THE ONGOING GALE WARNINGS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE HURON, WHERE
THE GALE WARNING BEINGS AT 8AM EDT DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLING OUT, LEADING TO NEUTRAL THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGH CHANCES
TO MIX DOWN STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. A PERIOD OF SNOW IS ALSO EXPECTED
ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL BE
FULLY ENTRENCHED IN THE WARM SECTOR, SUPPORTING A STRONG STABLE
ENVIRONMENT. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE ALONE WILL LIKELY
STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. FOR
LOCATIONS NORTH ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON, A LULL
IN GUST TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE FAVORED IN THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW ARRIVES
OVERHEAD. IN THIS WINDOW, FREEZING RAIN TO SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH RAIN CHANCES HOLDING FOR LOCATIONS
SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
MORNING, A STRONG COLD FRONT DELIVERING ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL
BRING THE BETTER CHANCES FOR GUST TO GALES FOR ALL LOCATIONS, DOWN
THROUGH LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR WILL
ALSO CONVERT ANY RAIN SHOWERS BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS. ISOLATED
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, FAVORED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN, LAKE ST. CLAIR, AND LAKE ERIE.
GALE POTENTIAL LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, ENDING GALES.
GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-
441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LCZ460.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
LEZ444.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....KGK
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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