171
FXUS63 KDTX 152254
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
654 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTERMITTENTLY TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SE
MICHIGAN.
- A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVES THROUGH LOWER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED STORM COULD APPROACH SEVERE INTENSITY
AND A MARGINAL RISK IS IN PLACE FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR
MAINLY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
- HAZARDOUS WIND GUSTS CONTINUE MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR SENDS
TEMPERATURES FROM THE 50S MONDAY MORNING INTO THE 20S BY MONDAY
EVENING. ARCTIC AIR ALSO BRINGS INCREASING CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SQUALLS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
- WIND CHILLS BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
AVIATION
A STRONG WARM FRONT NOW OVER KFNT WILL LIFT NORTH TOWARD KMBS THIS
EVENING, DRIVEN BY RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM ILLINOIS THIS EVENING TO CENTRAL LOWER MI BY MONDAY
MORNING. WARM SECTOR MIXING WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS OVER 40 KNOTS AT
TIMES THIS EVENING. UPSTREAM WARM CONVEYOR CONVECTION WILL ROTATE
ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 04Z AND 08Z. SOME DECREASE IN THE INSTABILITY
FORECAST MAY RESULT IN SOME SLIGHT WEAKENING. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE UPPER WAVE ROTATING IN FROM THE WEST, THE INTENSITY OF THE LARGE
SCALE ASCENT WILL BE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS AT
ALL TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND
SPEEDS WITHIN THE BROAD REGION OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT, THE INTENSITY
OF THE WIND FIELDS WILL JUSTIFY LEANING ON THE STRONG END OF
GUIDANCE, WITH CONTINUED GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL ROTATE ACROSS SE MI BETWEEN 10Z AND 12Z, MARKED BY A WIND
SHIFT TO THE SW. DEEPENING MIXING AND CONTINUED STRONG WIND FIELDS
WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.
FOR DTW...A SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO
MOVE FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AIRSPACE BETWEEN 04Z AND 09Z.
THERE MAY BE SOME WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 THROUGH THIS EVENING, MODERATE
TONIGHT AND MONDAY.
* MODERATE IN THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 403 PM EDT SUN MAR 15 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE WIND ADVISORY IS EXPANDED ACROSS ALL OF SE MI AND EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S FORECAST UPDATE.
SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SO FAR TODAY ARE TRACKING THE
WELL-MIXED WARM SECTOR FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO LOWER MI THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. PEAK GUSTS IN THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE HAVE
BEEN PREVALENT ACROSS IL/IN AND REACHED THE OHIO BORDER STATIONS AS
OF 3 PM. SIMILAR GUST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH FARTHER NORTH
INTO SE MI DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE NORTHWARD
ELONGATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS THE KEY IN THIS
CASE TO OVERCOME THE CUSTOMARY INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TO DELAY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT, ALTHOUGH IT STILL HAS
A STABILIZING INFLUENCE CLOSER TO THE SHORELINES AND WITH NORTHWARD
EXTENT. ADVISORY LEVEL GUSTS BECOME MORE INTERMITTENT AFTER SUNSET
AS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME PERISHABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
STABILITY. GUST FREQUENCY INCREASES AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THERMAL
PROFILES BECOME MORE NEUTRAL, AS THE LOW LEVEL JET PEAKS OVERHEAD,
AND AS SHOWERS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A WIND
SURGE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND THEN HAZARDOUS GUSTS THAT CONTINUE
THROUGH MONDAY AS COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION AND THE PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW DROPS TO NEAR 980 MB DEPTH IN NORTHERN LOWER MI MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS STILL TO EVALUATE GOING
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TAKING CUES FROM AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS AND
HOURLY MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NOW IN FAR SW
LOWER MI FEEDING INTO DEEPER CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD FRONT
TRAILING OFF INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. MUCAPE IS STILL SUB 500 J/KG AT
MID AFTERNOON WHICH IS CAPTURED WELL BY THE 12Z HREF THAT SHOWS THE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING INTO AND THEN COLLAPSING OVER
SOUTHERN LOWER MI. VARIOUS HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO ACKNOWLEDGE THE
INSTABILITY TRENDS WITH SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW CONVECTION IN A MORE
ORGANIZED LINEAR MODE TO THE WEST AND SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON TENDING
TO BECOME MORE CELLULAR TO THE NORTH INTO LOWER MI WHILE MAINTAINING
SOME STRUCTURE TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. THE WIND PROFILE REMAINS
WORTHY OF RESPECT FOR ANY SURFACE BASED CELL THAT CAN SURVIVE THE
SHEAR, AND A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE INTENSITY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR
THE AREA UNTIL THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH TOWARD SUNRISE MONDAY
MORNING.
MONDAY CARRIES A RETURN TO WINTER FOR THE GREAT LAKES AS COLD AIR
SURGES INTO THE REGION. THE WIND ADVISORY HIGHLIGHTS 45 TO 50 MPH
WIND GUSTS, HOWEVER THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS INCREASINGLY
SUPPORTIVE OF LAKE ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/SQUALLS DURING THE
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE CONVECTIVE
DEPTH APPROACHING 10 KFT BY MID AFTERNOON AIDED BY THE 500 MB TROUGH
AND COLD CORE REACHING DOWN TO NEAR -35 C. MID MARCH DAYTIME HEATING
ALSO CONTRIBUTES TO THE STEEP LAPSE RATE BELOW CLOUD BASE AND THE
STRONG WIND FIELD ADDS A COMPONENT TO THE SNOW SQUALL EQUATION WHILE
DIRECTION SHIFTS SW TO NW BY EVENING. THE FORECAST IS LEANED TOWARD
GREATER COVERAGE MAKING IT INTO SE MI FROM THE LAKE MICHIGAN
SHORELINE, AND A LOCALIZED QUICK INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS IN REACH
WHERE ANY LOCATION GETS MORE THAN ONE SNOW SHOWER.
COLD AIR IS THEN ROOTED IN THE GREAT LAKES FOR THE MID WEEK PERIOD
HIGHLIGHTED BY WIND CHILL AROUND ZERO TUESDAY MORNING. THE NEXT
ROUND OF SNOW STILL LOOKS LIGHT IN MID WEEK MODEL DATA AND MARKS THE
BEGINNING OF A LATE WEEK WARMING TREND.
MARINE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVEL FROM SOUTHERN
LAKE MICHIGAN LATE THIS EVENING, STRENGTHENING AS IT MOVES IN ACROSS
NORTHERN LAKE HURON BY TOMORROW MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BRING A WIDE ARRAY OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS, INCLUDING EXTENDED
WINDOWS FOR GUST TO GALES, RAIN SHOWERS, SNOW SHOWERS, AND HIGHLY
LOCALIZED FREEZING RAIN/SLEET CHANCES.
FOR THIS AFTERNOON... A WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED STRONG LOW-LEVEL
JET NOW OVER SOUTHERN MICHIGAN WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH, STALLING
AROUND NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON BY THIS EVENING. STABILITY HAS
QUICKLY INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH THE ADVENT OF
WARMER TEMPERATURES WHICH HOLD GUST POTENTIAL TO BELOW GALES. THE
EXCEPTION REMAINS ACROSS NORTH AND NORTH CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS A
MORE NEUTRAL THERMAL PROFILES HAVE ALLOWED FOR STRONG WINDS ALOFT TO
MIX DOWN.
FOR THIS EVENING... THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY
INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES. THE STRENGTH OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONE WILL LIKELY
STILL SUPPORT ELEVATED GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS DESPITE SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS BEING IN THE WARM SECTOR. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH ACROSS NORTH-
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON, A LULL IN GUST TO GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE FAVORED IN THE LATE EVENING AND EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY
AS THE CENTER OF THE LOW ARRIVES OVERHEAD. IN THIS WINDOW, FREEZING
RAIN TO SLEET WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON, WITH RAIN
AND SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HOLDING FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH.
AS THE LOW DEPARTS THE REGION LATE TOMORROW INTO TUESDAY MORNING, A
STRONG COLD FRONT DELIVERING ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BRING THE
MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS TO SEE GUST TO GALES FOR ALL LOCATIONS,
DOWN THROUGH LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR
WILL ALSO CONVERT ANY RAIN SHOWERS BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND
WILL BRING THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF LAKE HURON.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN, LAKE ST.
CLAIR, AND LAKE ERIE. GALE POTENTIAL LASTS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY
MORNING BEFORE A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ENDING GALES. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT MONDAY NIGHT FOR MIZ047>049-
053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361-362.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO 5 PM EDT TUESDAY
FOR LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ363-441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.
GALE WARNING FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 8 AM MONDAY TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......AM
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