242
FXUS63 KDTX 161719
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
119 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LINGERING GUSTY WINDS RESULTS IN WIND CHILL
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- STRONGER, MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH THIS EVENING.
- TUESDAY REMAINS UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
AVIATION
SYNOPTIC LIFT DUE TO SHARP ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
UPTICK IN LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC. AFTER 21Z,
DEEPENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 4.5 TO 7.5 KFT AGL LAYER POST
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER SUPERSATURATION WITH
RESPECT TO ICE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNOW SHOWER
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-01Z. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON COVERAGE. IF A SNOW
SQUALL DOES IMPACT THE TERMINAL BRIEF LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG WINDS IMPACTING THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 21Z. STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF
SATURATION.
FOR DTW...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-01Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET..
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN CROSSWIND EXCEEDENCE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 424 AM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
DISCUSSION...
LINEAR SYSTEM HAS MOSTLY ROLLED THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH NO THUNDER BEING OBSERVED. THE LINGER SHOWERS ON
THE TAIL END OF THE LEAD MOISTURE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE STATE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WINDS MANAGED TO STAY UNDER CONTROL WITH
THESE SHOWERS ASIDE FROM A SINGLE ROGUE HIGH WIND GUST POP AHEAD OF
THE MAIN LINE AT YIP. STARK TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN THIS MORNING AROUND THE WARM FRONT. JUST ABOVE FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S TO THE NORTH AND NOW
PREDOMINATELY 50S TO THE SOUTH NOW THAT THE RAIN HAS COOLED THINGS
DOWN FROM 60S IN THE WARM SECTOR. WINDS ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE REMAINED TAME SO FAR EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO CHANGE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. LOWER LEVEL THERMAL
PROFILES WILL BEGIN TO COOL WITH THE NORTHEAST PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW REMOVING THE INVERSION OVER TIME ACROSS THE NORTH. THIS WILL
BRING A MORE CONDUCIVE MIXING PROFILE FOR GUSTY WINDS TO RAMP UP
WHILE THE STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WINDS REMAIN OVERHEAD.
TODAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO WINTER WEATHER LOCALLY AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND DRIVES THE REMAINING WARM AIR
OUT. THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE LOW 20S AND TEENS BY LATE THIS EVENING.
THE WIND ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING AS 40
TO 50 MPH WIND GUSTS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND THE DEEPENING MIXING PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE POST
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION THAT WILL EXTEND WELL ABOVE 6KFT THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HIGH END POTENTIAL FOR TODAY SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED
THAN LAST EVENING AS LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL TRANSITION FROM 60+
KNOTS TO THE 40-50 KNOTS RANGE FOR TODAY.
AN IMPRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH
AN ASSOCIATED MERIDONALLY-ORIENTED 160 KNOT JET STREAK DIRECTLY
ALOFT. THE AFOREMENTIONED ARCTIC AIR FILTERING IN THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WILL INCREASE OVERLAKE DELTAT'S WITH SUPPORT FROM THE PARENT LOW
WILL LEAD TO INCREASING COVERAGE OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATING INCREASING SURFACE
INSTABILITY WITH DAYTIME HEATING THAT WILL RESULT IN STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WITH THE ALREADY STRONG WIND FIELDS. ELEVATED SNOW
SQUALL PARAMETER ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN HIGHLIGHT THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR SAID SNOW SQUALLS BETWEEN 12 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 12
AM TONIGHT. HAVE REINTRODUCED GREATER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS AS POPULATED NBM WAS TOO LOW. GIVEN THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS, A LOCALIZED QUICK INCH OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE FOR ANY LOCATIONS THAT CAN SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OR EXPERIENCE A LONGER DURATION UNDER ANY
STRONGER LAKE EFFECT SNOW BAND. SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EXPECTED GUSTY WINDS.
ARCTIC AIR SETTLING INTO THE REGION WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
PLUMMETING TO -20C TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT LOW TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 10
TO 20 DEGREES. WIND CHILLS WILL BE DOWN TO AROUND ZERO DEGREES FOR
TOMORROW MORNING. A FEW LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 20S FOR
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM MID-WEEK OFFERS A CHANCE
FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW BEFORE A WARMING TREND KICKS IN FOR THE LATE
WEEK PERIOD WITH A RETURN TO 40S AND 50S DAYTIME HIGHS.
MARINE...
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
TRAVEL FROM SOUTHERN MICHIGAN TO NORTHERN LAKE HURON THIS MORNING
AND AFTERNOON. A LULL IN GUST TO GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS OVER NORTH AND NORTH-CENTRAL LAKE HURON AS THE CENTER
OF THE LOW ARRIVES OVERHEAD. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET REMAINS LIKELY
NORTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON UNTIL
THE LATE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW BEGINS TO EXIT.
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT USHERS IN A STRONG COLD
FRONT, WITH ARCTIC AIR FILLING IN OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
PRODUCE A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT AND WILL BRING THE MOST FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO SEE GUST TO GALES FOR ALL LOCATIONS, DOWN THROUGH LAKE
ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR WILL ALSO CONVERT
ANY LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS BACK OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS AND WILL BRING
THE LIKELY CHANCE FOR HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. A HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
WARNING IS IN EFFECT ACROSS LAKE HURON AND OUTER SAGINAW BAY TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, ISOLATED SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON BASIN, LAKE ST.
CLAIR, AND LAKE ERIE. GALE POTENTIAL LASTS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING
BEFORE A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BY THE AFTERNOON.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM
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