884
FXUS63 KDTX 161932
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
332 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LINGERING GUSTY WINDS RESULTS IN WIND CHILL
VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.
- STRONGER, MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THOUGH THIS EVENING.
- TUESDAY REMAINS UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING RESIDES WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
EVENING SO OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT, COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THIS INCOMING
COLDER AIR HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WANE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO DEGREES. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE THUMB MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES FALL BELOW
ZERO, WHERE GUSTIER NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WE
MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION, THE
LINGERING POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DAYTIME HEIGHTS IN THE
20S ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH-BASED FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE POCKET
OF COLD AIR EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STEADILY WARM
FROM MID/UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY TO 40S/50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS STRETCH. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND OR TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES (AND
NO SURPRISE) THIS LACK OF AGREEMENT WORSENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, WE HAVE LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST
ALMOST EVERY DAY.
MARINE
STRONG LOW PRESSURE (988 MB) NOW EXITING NORTHERN LAKE
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST GALES (40+
KNOTS) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, AS
WELL AS LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
GREAT SHAPE, AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. VERY
COLD AIRMASS FOR MID MARCH STANDARDS TO MOVE OVER THE LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO
MID 20S. THIS WILL ASSURE DEEP MIXING TO SUPPORT THE GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL THROUGH AXIS TO EXIT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY AND
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH THE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH BY EVENING. THIS IS
PROVIDE A LULL IN WINDS, UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH KICKS
IN, AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 119 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AVIATION...
SYNOPTIC LIFT DUE TO SHARP ABSOLUTE VORTICITY ADVECTION WILL CAUSE
UPTICK IN LIGHT FLURRIES OR SNOW SHOWERS TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS SUPPORT FOR THIS ON REGIONAL REFLECTIVITY MOSAIC. AFTER 21Z,
DEEPENING COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE 4.5 TO 7.5 KFT AGL LAYER POST
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR GREATER SUPERSATURATION WITH
RESPECT TO ICE THROUGH THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. SNOW SHOWER
INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH AN ISOLATED SNOW SQUALL
POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-01Z. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS ON COVERAGE. IF A SNOW
SQUALL DOES IMPACT THE TERMINAL BRIEF LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE DUE TO STRONG WINDS IMPACTING THE REGION. WINDS WILL VEER
WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY AFTER 21Z. STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. DIURNAL SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS TUESDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE DUE TO SHALLOW NATURE OF
SATURATION.
FOR DTW...SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW
SQUALLS WILL BE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 21-01Z.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET..
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN CROSSWIND EXCEEDENCE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....CB
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