358
FXUS63 KDTX 170348
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1148 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND LINGERING GUSTY WINDS RESULTS IN WIND
CHILL VALUES BOTTOMING OUT NEAR ZERO TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.
- STRONGER, MORE FOCUSED AREAS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING
PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF TONIGHT.
- TUESDAY REMAINS UNSEASONABLE COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES MODERATE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, ALONG WITH
ADDITIONAL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
UPDATE
BRIEF UPDATE TO EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS UNTIL 4
AM. WE REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE SPOT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET WINDS AND
THE ARCTIC AIR IS STILL SUPPORTING STRONG WIND GUSTS. A FEW SPOTS
HAVE BEEN REPORTING GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS GRADUALLY
EASE THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS LOW LEVEL JET WINDS
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 647 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
AVIATION...
RESPECTABLE MIXING DEPTHS WILL SUSTAIN GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING. THE EASTWARD DEPARTURE OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS/GUSTS OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THE COVERAGE OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXITS
EAST AND THE DIURNAL HEATING COMPONENT IS LOST. CONTINUED MOISTURE
FLUX OFF THE LAKES WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS INTO THE OVERNIGHT, LIKELY WITH A TRANSITION FROM MORE
CELLULAR CONVECTIVE SNOW TO MORE BANDED STRUCTURES. THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND DIRECTION OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL KEEP THE HIGHER
CHANCES FOR SNOW SHOWERS LARGELY WEST OF THE TERMINALS.
FOR DTW...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 30 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING, BEFORE DECREASING OVERNIGHT.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* LOW IN CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW THIS AFTERNOON.
* HIGH IN CROSSWIND EXCEEDENCE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 332 PM EDT MON MAR 16 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN THROUGH THIS EVENING RESIDES WITH WIDELY
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, CONTINUED GUSTY WINDS, AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS OF 35-45 MPH WILL LINGER THROUGH THIS
EVENING SO OPTED TO LEAVE THE WIND ADVISORY GOING. AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH TONIGHT, COLD
AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO THE AREA. THIS INCOMING
COLDER AIR HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THESE TRENDS TO CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT MORE ROBUST SNOW
SHOWERS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING VISIBILITIES. WE
SHOULD START TO SEE THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS WANE AS WE LOSE
DAYTIME HEATING. AS THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN, TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE TEENS AND WIND CHILL VALUES BOTTOM OUT AROUND ZERO DEGREES. A
FEW SPOTS ACROSS THE THUMB MAY SEE WIND CHILL VALUES FALL BELOW
ZERO, WHERE GUSTIER NORTHWEST WINDS LINGER OVERNIGHT.
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, THE MAIN SURFACE LOW DEPARTS THE
REGION. WITH LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW DOWNWIND OF LAKE MICHIGAN, WE
MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A FEW AREAS OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. WHILE THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEPARTS THE REGION, THE
LINGERING POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP DAYTIME HEIGHTS IN THE
20S ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH-BASED FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.
THE MIDDLE/END OF THE WEEK TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE AS THE POCKET
OF COLD AIR EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL STEADILY WARM
FROM MID/UPPER 30S ON WEDNESDAY TO 40S/50S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WE
WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON A FEW SHORTWAVES THAT DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS STRETCH. GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND OR TIMING OF THESE SHORTWAVES (AND
NO SURPRISE) THIS LACK OF AGREEMENT WORSENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THUS, WE HAVE LOW-END POPS IN THE FORECAST
ALMOST EVERY DAY.
MARINE...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE (988 MB) NOW EXITING NORTHERN LAKE
HURON/GEORGIAN BAY THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG SOUTHWEST GALES (40+
KNOTS) HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, AS
WELL AS LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE. THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN
GREAT SHAPE, AS WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. VERY
COLD AIRMASS FOR MID MARCH STANDARDS TO MOVE OVER THE LAKE HURON
THIS EVENING/TONIGHT, AS 850 MB TEMPS LOWER INTO THE NEGATIVE LOW TO
MID 20S. THIS WILL ASSURE DEEP MIXING TO SUPPORT THE GALE FORCE WIND
GUSTS OVERNIGHT. THE THERMAL THROUGH AXIS TO EXIT EAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH SUFFICIENTLY AND
AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH THE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH BY EVENING. THIS IS
PROVIDE A LULL IN WINDS, UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH KICKS
IN, AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
462>464.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ361>363-
421-441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LEZ444.
UPDATE.......AA
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...JA
MARINE.......SF
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