861
FXUS63 KDTX 170811
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
411 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- ARCTIC AIRMASS KEEPS CONDITIONS COLD TODAY WITH WIND CHILLS TO
AROUND 0 DEGREES THIS MORNING FOR MOST THE AREA.
- SCATTERED LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES CONTINUE
TODAY.
- WARMING TREND MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A COUPLE OF CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN. THE WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED, BUT HAVE FINALLY COME DOWN COMPARED TO LAST EVENING
AS THE STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JET WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
EAST THROUGH THE MORNING. THIS COMBO IS RESULTING IN A VERY CHILLY
START TO THE MORNING. WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 0 DEGREES FOR MOST
OF THE AREA WITH AREAS ACROSS THE THUMB REACHING TOWARDS -10F WIND
CHILLS AT TIMES. ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM SNOW SHOWERS LAST
EVENING QUICKLY FROZE ON UNTREATED SURFACES. DRIVERS SHOULD BE
CAUTIOUS OF VARIABLE DRIVING CONDITIONS DURING THE MORNING COMMUTE
WITH PATCHY SLICK SPOTS LIKELY STILL LINGERING ON ROADWAYS THIS
MORNING ON ANY UNTREATED SURFACES.
TROUGH AXIS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY.
SURFACE WINDS HOLDING OUT OF THE W-NW WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 20S
WILL KEEP THE LAKE EFFECT REGIME INTACT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE
MORE ROBUST LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING AND LAST
EVENING. MODELS HAVE WEAK SURFACE INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK IN
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT SHOWERS. LIMITED ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL
EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WITH THIS ACTIVITY. A TENTH OR
TWO OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION AT MOST WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED
SPOTS. SHORTWAVE RIDGE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL PUT AN END TO LARGER
LAKE EFFECT RESPONSE BY THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK AS WARMER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHWEST CONUS MID-UPPER RIDGE ARE
DRAWN INTO PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE OF
RELATIVELY WEAK SYSTEMS WILL RIDE THE NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THIS
RIDGE OFFERING A COUPLE CHANCES AT LIGHT PRECIPITATION. WEDNESDAY
WILL SEE DAYTIME HIGHS REACH INTO THE 30S WITH THERMAL PROFILES COOL
ENOUGH FOR SNOW AS THE FIRST SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASCENT. ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD STAY
UNDER AND INCH. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE SECOND SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FOR
THURSDAY GIVEN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES BRINING PREDOMINATELY RAIN
WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN ACROSS THE
NORTH. LOWER PREDICTABILITY INTO THE WEEKEND IN REGARDS TO RAINFALL
AND ASSOCIATED TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE MODEL VARIABILITY AT THIS
TIME.
MARINE
THE NORTHWEST GALES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE THERMAL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST AND
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS. THE BITTER COLD AIRMASS WILL BE
CONDUCIVE TO HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY INTO TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH
SUFFICIENTLY AND AIRMASS BEGINS TO MODIFY.
HIGH PRESSURE TO SLIDE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TOMORROW, WITH THE
PRONOUNCED SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDING NORTH BY EVENING. THIS IS
PROVIDE A LULL IN WINDS, UNDER 20 KNOTS. HOWEVER, MODERATE SOUTHWEST
WINDS TO RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH KICKS
IN, AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
LIGHT WINDS RETURN THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 138 AM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AVIATION...
MIXING DEPTHS SUPPORT GRADUALLY DECREASING, BUT STILL GUSTY,
WESTERLY WINDS TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS PRIOR LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM'S WAKE MAINTAINS ROBUST LOW-LEVEL WINDS. LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM LAKE MICHIGAN WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WANES. A
LULL IN SNOWFALL IS THEN EXPECTED TUESDAY MORNING, BUT RENEWED LAKE
EFFECT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MIDDAY TUESDAY AS LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND WEAK INSTABILITY ARISES. EXPECT LESS
COVERAGE, LOWER INTENSITY, AND WEAKER WINDS, COMPARED TO MONDAY.
FOR DTW...WESTERLY GUSTS OVER 25 KNOTS PERSIST TONIGHT, BUT DECREASE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, EVENTUALLY RECOVERING BELOW CROSSWIND
EXCEEDENCE. A FEW ADDITIONAL LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR IFR VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET TONIGHT.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
* MEDIUM IN CROSSWIND EXCEEDENCE EARLY TONIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ361>363-421-422-
441>443-462>464.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.
LAKE ST CLAIR...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....KGK
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