194
FXUS63 KDTX 171911
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
311 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS
ARCTIC COLD PERSISTS.
- CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION
EXPECTED.
- WARMING CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE WEEK PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
DISCUSSION
ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTRENCHED LOCALLY THIS AFTERNOON, SOLIDIFIED BY A
DIP IN 850 MB TEMPERATURE AROUND -18C WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF HIGH
AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGHING. SECONDARY PERIOD OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
INTO DAYTIME HEATING WILL MAINTAIN STEEP LAPSE RATES AT A DEEP
CONVECTIVE DEPTH THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. SUPPORTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF ONGOING WEAK LAKE MOISTURE FLUX
TO MAINTAIN A SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH
SUNSET. MINOR ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL WITHIN ANY BRIEFLY HEAVIER
POCKETS, BUT OF LIMITED OVERALL DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION.
REDUCTION IN MOISTURE DEPTH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW BACKS TO SOUTHWESTERLY WILL THEN FAVOR A PERIOD OF DRY
CONDITIONS 03Z-10Z. MAGNITUDE OF COLD HELD WITHIN THE RESIDENT
AIRMASS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT MINIMUM WIND CHILL OF SINGLE DIGITS TO
LOWER TEENS WEDNESDAY MORNING.
ENERGETIC NORTHERN PACIFIC UPPER JET STREAM WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF
LOWER AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL WAVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. LEAD WAVE SET TO SHEAR ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA WEDNESDAY. NARROW AXIS OF MEANINGFUL MOIST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL EMERGE OUT AHEAD OF THE WAVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT.
BOTH THE MOISTURE QUALITY AND ASSOCIATED FORCING REMAIN WEAK, BUT
SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
PRODUCTION WITH A FOCUS DURING THE MORNING PERIOD, GREATEST WITH
SOUTHWARD EXTENT. ANY ACCUMULATION REMAINS MINOR. MODEST WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
30S WED AFTERNOON.
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC MID LEVEL IMPULSE WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THURSDAY. HIGHER QUALITY MOISTURE ADVECTION UNDER STRONGER LOW LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW AFFORDS A GREATER RESPONSE ALONG THE INBOUND WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. PACE OF WARMING DIURNALLY RELATIVE TO THE
PRECIPITATION ONSET THURSDAY MORNING WILL GOVERN BOTH SCALE AND
DURATION OF SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX AS PRECIPITATION TYPE, BEFORE
ADEQUATE WARMING ENSURES ALL RAIN THE REST OF THE DAY. NO
ACCUMULATION CURRENTLY EXPECTED. OUTGOING FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT A PEAK IN TEMPERATURE OF MID 40S TO AROUND 50 AS THE
THERMAL RIDGE TAKES BRIEF RESIDENCE.
LOWER AMPLITUDE MID LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DELIVER ONE FINAL WAVE
FRIDAY. ENTRY LEVEL PRECIPITATION MENTION AT THIS STAGE TO ACCOUNT
FOR ASSOCIATED FRONTAL FORCING AND MODEST MOISTURE QUALITY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY CARRY GREATER POTENTIAL NORTH OF THE AREA AND FURTHER
REVISION LIKELY. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY MODERATING THERMAL PROFILE
WITH CONTINUED PACIFIC INFLUENCE LIFTS TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE
AVERAGE TO END THE WORK WEEK. WARMEST CONDITIONS LIKELY HEADING INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS UPPER HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
BUILD ATOP MEANINGFUL SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MARINE
WESTERLY WINDS DROPPING TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT AS SURFACE
RIDGING EXTENDING FROM HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY ARRIVES.
MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AS RETURN FLOW AROUND
THE HIGH KICKS IN, AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH NORTHERN ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GUSTS AT LEAST TO 25 KNOTS, WITH POTENTIAL TO
BRIEFLY REACH 30 KNOTS OVER THE OPEN WATERS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS RETURN THURSDAY-FRIDAY AS A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT ON THURSDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL THEN ARRIVE ON FRIDAY, BRINGING A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION.
WARM AIRMASS (7-10 C AT 850 MB) IN PLACE ON SATURDAY FAVORS WINDS
AOB 20 KNOTS WITH LIMITED MIXING/STABLE LOW LEVELS. NEXT COLD FRONT
ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. NONE-THE-
LESS, BULK OF EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUGGESTS WINDS ONLY TOPPING OUT
AROUND 25 KNOTS. EVEN SO, UNSTABLE LOW LEVEL PROFILES AND LONGER
FETCH WILL RESULT IN LARGE WAVES BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON BASIN, WITH WAVES AOA 4 FEET IMPACTING THE NEARSHORE WATERS.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 103 PM EDT TUE MAR 17 2026
AVIATION...
BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE EVENING, WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. THE BROADER FLOW PATTERN HAS DRAWN GREAT LAKES
MOISTURE INLAND TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
AIRSPACE. MUCH OF THIS IS BEING DRIVEN BY THE DIURNAL CYCLE, SO
EXPECTING A FAIRLY ABRUPT DECREASE IN COVERAGE AFTER SUNSET (00Z)
THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD VSBYS HAVE REMAINED ABOVE 3SM IN THESE SNOW
SHOWERS, BUT ISOLATED/BRIEF DROPS IN VSBY TO 1SM HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
GIVEN THE INFREQUENCY OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON-EVENING, WILL KEEP TEMPO RESTRICTIONS AT MVFR UNLESS
OBSERVATIONS TREND OTHERWISE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BACKING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHERLY BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS DRAWS AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE REGION, GENERATING A BROAD REGION OF LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS UNDER A HALF INCH REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY.
FOR DTW...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE ONGOING AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH
ROUGHLY 00Z TONIGHT. VSBY REDUCTIONS WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR TREND TO
WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN THIS MORNING, MOSTLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL
IFR REDUCTIONS. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT MVFR TO BRIEFLY IFR SNOWFALL
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH IN CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING AND
WEDNESDAY AFTER 12Z.
* HIGH IN PRECIP TYPE AS SNOW TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
* LOW IN CROSSWIND EXCEEDENCE THIS AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LHZ361>363-421-441>443-462>464.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......SF
AVIATION.....MV
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