430
FXUS63 KDTX 030406
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1206 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED STORMS
MAY BE STRONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND LOCALIZED HEAVY
RAINFALL THE MAIN THREATS.
- ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL.
- MILD CONDITIONS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN TRENDING COOLER AGAIN
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS PASSING EAST AS OF 04Z WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS. ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME AROUND 06-
09Z AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE STORMS ARE SUPPOSED TO UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY PASS THROUGH WESTERN LOWER, BUT MAY STILL
OFFER WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KNOTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50
KNOTS DOWN TO 2KFT STILL PRESENT, BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN TAFS
AS GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BE STRONG UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
QUIETER WEATHER THEN MOVES IN BY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING FRIDAY HELPS
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS.
FOR DTW... A SECOND LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN LOWER WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07-09Z. LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS BUT COULD SEE A GUST TO 40 KNOTS IF STORMS CAN HOLD
THEIR STRENGTH. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH AND BRINGS QUIETER
WEATHER.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07-09Z.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 410 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE OVER IA TRACKS NORTHEAST INTO THE STRAITS TONIGHT AND
ITS SURFACE WARM FRONT IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED FROM NEAR NEW BUFFALO
ALONG THE STATE LINE TO BETWEEN TOLEDO AND FINDLAY. PERSISTENT
EASTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW HOLDS THE STABLE MARINE LAYER
OVER MUCH SE MI INTO THE EVENING AND DELAYS THE ARRIVAL OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY, HOLDING A DRY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
MEANWHILE STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT WIND WILL CAUSE THE WARM
FRONT TO MAKE FARTHER NORTHWARD PROGRESS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
LOWER MI, RESULTING IN AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ORIENTED NW TO SE
ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER MI THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW HAS A NEGATIVE TILT WITH STRONG UPPER JET
DIVERGENCE AIDING IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN IL. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTHEAST ACROSS LOWER MI THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH INITIAL
MULTICELL STORMS FAVORED TO CONGEAL INTO A LINEAR MODE WITH CURRENT
TRENDS TRACKING IT THROUGH SE MI BETWEEN 8PM AND MIDNIGHT.
BUOYANCY WILL BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT AS
THE RESIDENT STABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DISLODGE, AND THERE IS
EXPECTED TO BE A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND AS CONVECTION ARRIVES.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70
MPH GIVEN THE POWERFUL KINEMATIC BACKGROUND. THE INBOUND LLJ IN THE
WARM SECTOR WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY 65 KT FLOW AT 850MB AND 50 TO
60 KT DOWN TO 925MB OR ROUGHLY 2 KFT AGL. IF STORMS ARRIVING FROM
THE WEST CAN STAY ROOTED IN THE SURFACE LAYER, DESCENDING PARCELS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DRAGGING THE HIGHER MOMENTUM TO THE SURFACE.
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR THIS TO OCCUR IS WEST OF US-23 WITH
DECREASING PROBABILITY WITH EASTWARD EXTENT GIVEN INCREASING
STABILITY. A HIGHER MOISTURE ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT RISING TO NEAR
1.40" BRINGS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL. STORM
MOTION AT NEARLY 60 KT WILL KEEP THIS ACTIVITY TRANSIENT AND
MITIGATE FLOODING CONCERNS FOR MOST AREAS, BUT SOME LOCALES AROUND
THE SAGINAW VALLEY MAY SEE REPEATED STORMS AND WITH ANTECEDENT WET
CONDITIONS THIS ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED MINOR
FLOODING TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR AN EMBEDDED BRIEF TORNADO ALSO
EXISTS NEAR THE WARM FRONT/CAPE GRADIENT WHERE SRH WILL BE MAXIMIZED
AS CONVECTION MOVES IN. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE IF ANY SEGMENTS
DEVIATE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVAILING NNE STORM MOTION.
AS THE WARM SECTOR PASSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT, NEUTRAL THERMAL
PROFILES ALLOW FOR GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT TIMES BEFORE THE LLJ
MOVES OUT. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING WITH LITTLE
ASCENT LEFT AS THE PARENT SYSTEM QUICKLY TRACKS INTO WESTERN QUEBEC.
SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE, THEN CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKENING WIND RESULTS IN A
PLEASANT FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS IN THE 70S SOUTH AND 50S NORTH.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TAKES A VERY SIMILAR TRACK FROM THE MIDWEST/MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE
WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE STATELINE LATE FRIDAY
BEFORE BEING FORCED NORTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT. BRIEF RESIDENCE OF THE
WARM SECTOR FOLLOWS EARLY SATURDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN BE A LIMITING
FACTOR FOR STRONGER CONVECTION, AND THE CURRENT SWODY3 OUTLINES SE
MI IN THE GENERAL THUNDER CATEGORY. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
A POSSIBILITY AND WPC SHOWS ALL OF SE MI IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.
A COOLER PATTERN COMMENCES SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
AS LONGWAVE TROUGHING SETS UP OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A CLIPPER TRACKS
THROUGH ON MONDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS, BUT
OTHERWISE DRIER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY BRINGS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD DURING THE LATE WEEK.
MARINE...
A MODEST GRADIENT EXISTS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY,
POSITIONED BETWEEN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE PLAINS AND
STALLED HIGH PRESSURE OVER QUEBEC. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW HAS BEEN SLOW TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERWAYS, KEEPING
MIXING DEPTHS VERY SHALLOW THIS AFTERNOON. STILL, A PERIOD OF ON-
SHORE FLOW BRINGS ELEVATED WAVES TO SAGINAW BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
LAKE HURON SHORELINE, WHERE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE HURON WILL APPOACH GALES THIS
EVENING, BUT THE LACK OF PERSISTENCE PRECLUDES A LAST MINUTE GALE
WARNING. THE WARM FRONT PRECEDES THE TRACK OF THE LOW TONIGHT,
TOWARD THE STRAITS, WITH WINDS VEERING SSW WITH TIME, FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. THE SYSTEM'S LOW-LEVEL JET, FEATURING 60 KNOT FLOW BELOW 3
KFT, WILL STRUGGLE TO MIX DOWN GIVEN LOW LEVEL STABILITY, THEREFORE
NO ADDITIONAL GALE HEADLINES WERE ISSUED. SOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOME WATERWAYS TONIGHT, WITH THE
MAIN THREAT BEING STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS.
DRIER CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING WINDS EXPECTED FRIDAY, AFTER THE
SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT CLEARS THROUGH. HOWEVER, UNSETTLED WEATHER
RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH A SIMILARLY TRACKING WARM
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING RENEWED MODEST EASTERLY
WINDS, AREAS OF GUSTS APPROACHING GALES, AND ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE.
HYDROLOGY...
EARLY DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BROUGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS RANGING
BETWEEN 0.10 AND 0.60" WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS FOCUSED ACROSS THE
SAGINAW VALLEY AND I-69 CORRIDOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AN INCREASINGLY
MOISTURE-LADEN ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HEAVY DOWNPOURS AT TIMES,
BUT FAST STORM MOTION OF OVER 50 MPH WILL LIMIT RESIDENCE TIME FOR
MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SAGINAW VALLEY WHERE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING STORMS EXISTS. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THIS AREA ARE FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
0.30 AND 0.80" AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. AREAS
FARTHER SOUTH ARE FORECAST TO RECEIVE UP TO 0.30" WHICH WILL LIMIT
FLOODING CONCERNS.
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY WITH ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FORECAST TO RANGE BETWEEN
0.50 AND 1.00". TODAY'S AND SATURDAY'S RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON
AREA RIVERS AND BRING POTENTIAL TO REACH FLOOD STAGE, WITH HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. RIVER CRESTS ARE FORECAST TO
OCCUR THIS WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....DRK
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....TF
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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