415
FXUS63 KDTX 030735
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
335 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEPART FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE MI. LOCATIONS ALONG AND CLOSE TO THE
MI/OH BORDER AND UP THROUGH THE METRO REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE THROUGH THE 60S, POSSIBLY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO REGION
THROUGH PORT HURON. STRATUS NOW FILLING IN ACROSS A GREATER PORTION
OF THE CWA AND MODERATE TEMPERATURE HIGHS INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
DAYLIGHT WORKS TO SCOUR OUT THE BETTER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES HIGHS
IN THE 50S LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. NEUTRAL
PROFILES THIS MORNING STAY SHALLOW BUT BETTER MIXED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH,
ISL 35.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY. SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
COMMENCE TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL EFFICIENTLY
ADVECT IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH SE MI WITH PW VALUES REACHING AROUND
1.30 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AS FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG OF A COLD FRONT HELPS SUSTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POSITION OF THE
LOW ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK TO
AFFORD A WINDOW FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SE MI, NOTED WITH MEAN
HREF SBCAPE STRUGGLING TO PEAK PAST 100 J/KG. OVERALL KINEMATICS LOOK
POOR WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE 1-3KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH UNFAVORABLE VECTOR
ORIENTATION RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION. THUS OVER THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND HIGH
CAPPED IN THE 40S. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE CARVING INTO THE GREATER TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS DO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRODUCE A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MELTING
SNOWFLAKES. SOME ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SOME MORE CONVECTIVE BASED ACTIVITY THAT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MARINE
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE HURON WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE
AND VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO DECREASING WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DROP-OFF
ACCORDINGLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERWAYS ALOFT, WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, TRIGGERING SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING SURFACE LOW SHOULD REACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERWAYS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE ONE FINAL ROUND DEVELOPS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND HALF INCH HAIL.
HYDROLOGY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND BRING POTENTIAL TO REACH FLOOD STAGE, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. RIVER CRESTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1206 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
AVIATION...
FIRST ROUND OF STORMS IS PASSING EAST AS OF 04Z WITH SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS. ONE MORE ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL COME AROUND 06-
09Z AGAIN FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE STORMS ARE SUPPOSED TO UNDERGO A
WEAKENING TREND AS THEY PASS THROUGH WESTERN LOWER, BUT MAY STILL
OFFER WIND GUSTS TO 30-40 KNOTS. STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AROUND 50
KNOTS DOWN TO 2KFT STILL PRESENT, BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE LLWS IN TAFS
AS GUSTS AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO BE STRONG UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS.
QUIETER WEATHER THEN MOVES IN BY MORNING WITH POST FRONTAL WESTERLY
FLOW TURNING NORTHWEST THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR STRATUS WILL FILL IN
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE BETTER MIXING FRIDAY HELPS
SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS.
FOR DTW... A SECOND LINE OF STORMS HAS DEVELOPED UPSTREAM OVER
WESTERN LOWER WHICH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS,
REACHING THE AREA AROUND 07-09Z. LOW CHANCE FOR STORMS TO REACH
SEVERE LIMITS BUT COULD SEE A GUST TO 40 KNOTS IF STORMS CAN HOLD
THEIR STRENGTH. COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES THROUGH AND BRINGS QUIETER
WEATHER.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. LOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND MODERATE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND 07-09Z.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM
AVIATION.....DRK
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