565
FXUS63 KDTX 031728
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
128 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURN SUNDAY AND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AVIATION
CLEARING HAS BEEN ABLE TO PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA SOUTH OF THE M 59 AND I 96 CORRIDORS AS THE 925MB COLD FRONT
HAS BECOME QUASI STATIONARY. FORECAST DATA SUGGESTS THE FRONTAL ZONE
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD WITH TIME, HELPED AND FACILLIATED BETWEEN 21-03Z
TIME WINDOW BY A MARINE LAYER RELEASE AND EVENING TRANSITION. THERE
IS SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE ON WHEN MVFR CEILINGS WILL FILL BACK IN AT
THE DETROIT SITES WITH THE COLD ADVECTION. FOR NOW, TRUSTED THE
GUIDANCE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LATE EVENING HOURS. EASTERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS STEADILY TONIGHT LEADING TO LOW LEVEL INVERSION, CLOUDS
AND SATURATION. IFR CEILINGS ARE ANTCIPATED WITH A POTENTIAL FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS 05-09Z. AGGRESSIVE WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
RETURN OF WARM SECTOR IS ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY WITH STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE 17-21Z SATURDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TONIGHT.
* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON
.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1010 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO INCLUDE WIND GUSTS OF AT LEAST 35 MPH,
AS THE FRONTAL PASSAGE (FROPA) AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS (NEAR 50
KNOTS AT 925 MB PER 12Z DTX RAOB) SUPPORT THIS HIGHER GUST
POTENTIAL. WHILE 925-850 MB WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE,
FACILITATING SOLAR-AIDED MIXING WILL HELP BOOST MIXING DEPTHS. A
SHARP TEMPERATURE CONTRAST CURRENTLY EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN, RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE WEST TO NEAR 70 DEGREES
IN THE EAST. ROBUST LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION IS MAKING FOR A
DIFFICULT HOURLY TEMPERATURE TREND, AS MOST DAILY MAXIMUMS HAVE
ALREADY OCCURRED. HOWEVER, A MODEST SECONDARY RISE IS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON WITH PARTIAL APRIL INSOLATION.
A POTENT 50-60 KT SOUTHWEST LOW-LEVEL JET (LLJ) WILL BEGIN ITS
NORTHWARD SURGE OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT. THIS WILL INITIATE AN
EXCELLENT MOISTURE SURGE, WITH PW VALUES RAMPING UP FROM ROUGHLY
0.40 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON TO A STAGGERING 1.30 INCHES BY 12Z
SATURDAY. THIS REPRESENTS A 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION ANOMALY FOR EARLY
APRIL, SUGGESTING HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAIN-PRODUCING PROCESSES TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. FORTUNATELY, INSTABILITY AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES REMAIN WEAK; NO SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH
TONIGHT AS SURFACE WINDS REMAIN BACKED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
INTO TOMORROW, THE SEVERE THREAT REMAINS NOTABLY LOW DESPITE THE
ROBUST MOISTURE. A PERSISTENT NEAR-SURFACE INVERSION WILL BE
MAINTAINED BY THE COMBINATION OF EARLY-MORNING RAIN AND THICK CLOUD
COVER AS THE OCCLUSION RESIDES OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FOR MOST OF
THE DAY. THERE APPEARS TO BE A SHORT WINDOW DURING THE
AFTERNOON—DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE LOW THROUGH
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN—WHERE EASTERN AREAS COULD ENTER A MUDDLED
WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE COLD FRONT SWINGS THROUGH BY EARLY EVENING.
STRONG WIND FIELDS (50 KNOTS AT 850 MB) COULD STILL SUPPORT A
MARGINAL WIND THREAT, EVEN WITH THE WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY.
WILL TAKE LONGER AND MORE DETAILED LOOK FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE.
PREV DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 335 AM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
DISCUSSION...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEPART FROM NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN INTO
EASTERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN QUEBEC LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS. WEAKLY CYCLONIC FLOW WILL SET UP A BAROCLINIC ZONE
OVER MICHIGAN BY THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRODUCE A MODERATE
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS SE MI. LOCATIONS ALONG AND CLOSE TO THE
MI/OH BORDER AND UP THROUGH THE METRO REGION WILL SEE TEMPERATURES
RISE THROUGH THE 60S, POSSIBLY UP THROUGH THE NORTHERN METRO REGION
THROUGH PORT HURON. STRATUS NOW FILLING IN ACROSS A GREATER PORTION
OF THE CWA AND MODERATE TEMPERATURE HIGHS INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL
DAYLIGHT WORKS TO SCOUR OUT THE BETTER COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES HIGHS
IN THE 50S LIKELY HOLD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. NEUTRAL
PROFILES THIS MORNING STAY SHALLOW BUT BETTER MIXED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING WIND GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH,
ISL 35.
A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN WHILE PUSHING INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY. SHALLOW ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
COMMENCE TOMORROW MORNING WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS WITH SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW INTO MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
WIND FIELD ON THE SOUTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL EFFICIENTLY
ADVECT IN GULF MOISTURE THROUGH SE MI WITH PW VALUES REACHING AROUND
1.30 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH MOISTURE
CONTENT AS FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG OF A COLD FRONT HELPS SUSTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. POSITION OF THE
LOW ALONG WITH EARLY MORNING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER DOES NOT LOOK TO
AFFORD A WINDOW FOR DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SE MI, NOTED WITH MEAN
HREF SBCAPE STRUGGLING TO PEAK PAST 100 J/KG. OVERALL KINEMATICS LOOK
POOR WITH ONLY A SMALL WINDOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WHERE 1-3KM
BULK SHEAR VECTORS NEAR 25 TO 30 KNOTS, WITH UNFAVORABLE VECTOR
ORIENTATION RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION. THUS OVERALL THE SEVERE THREAT
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
DEPARTURE OF THE LOW BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE 30S AND HIGH
CAPPED IN THE 40S. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BECOME REINFORCED MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE CARVING INTO THE GREATER TROUGH.
PASSAGE OF THE WAVE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION MONDAY
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. HIGHS DO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS BUT VERY STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PRODUCE A LOW
FREEZING LEVEL BRINGING THE CHANCE FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR MELTING
SNOWFLAKES. SOME ELEVATED WEAK INSTABILITY ALSO BRINGS CHANCES FOR
SOME MORE CONVECTIVE BASED ACTIVITY THAT CAN PRODUCE GRAUPEL. A
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN BY TUESDAY,
BRINGING DRY WEATHER WITH THE CONTINUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING NORTHERN LAKE HURON WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS DECREASE
AND VEER WESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, WHICH EVENTUALLY
LEADS TO DECREASING WAVE HEIGHTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES DROP-OFF
ACCORDINGLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR SAGINAW BAY AND SOUTHERN LAKE
HURON. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
BEFORE UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WARM FRONT
SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE SOUTHERN WATERWAYS ALOFT, WELL AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY, TRIGGERING SOME NOCTURNAL SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THE ASSOCIATED TRAILING SURFACE LOW SHOULD REACH
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ELEVATED WARM
FRONT CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHWARD ACROSS LAKE HURON. SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AFFECT THE WATERWAYS LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING, BEFORE ONE FINAL ROUND DEVELOPS
SATURDAY EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF ITS COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS AND HALF INCH HAIL.
HYDROLOGY...
RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING WITH LIKELY CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL RANGE BETWEEN A HALF-INCH TO AN INCH BY
SATURDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL CAUSE RISES ON AREA RIVERS
AND BRING POTENTIAL TO REACH FLOOD STAGE, WITH HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY. RIVER CRESTS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR THIS
WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....CB
UPDATE.......SF
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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