202
FXUS63 KDTX 040748
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
348 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.
- CHANCE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, FAVORED ALONG OR SOUTH OF I-94.
- BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
OCCLUDED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW OVER NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DEPARTING INTO EASTERN ONTARIO AND QUEBEC BY
LATE TONIGHT. PROGRESSION OF THE LOW HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS RAIN
SHOWERS WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MI WITH SHALLOW
ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG AN ADVANCING WARM FRONT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS, CAPITALIZING ON MODEST MUCAPE, BUT ACTIVITY REMAINS
ELEVATED NOTING THE SHARP INVERSION IN THE LOW LEVELS WITH THE 00Z
RAOB. THE 40+ KNOTS LLJ ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL RESULT
IN EXTREMELY EFFICIENT MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.40
INCHES, WHICH IF VERIFIED WOULD FALL OUTSIDE RECORD VALUES FOR EARLY
APRIL PER LOCAL SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WITH
ADDITIONAL FORCING AHEAD AND ALONG OF A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A LULL IN ACTIVITY WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS THE METRO REGION
AND DOWN INTO THE MI/OH BORDER LATER THIS MORNING, WITH PROLONGED
RAIN CHANCES SETTING UP THROUGH THE TRI-CITIES, WHERE THE LOW AND
OCCLUDED FRONT LIES. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGHER RAINFALL
TOTALS, AS DESCRIBED IN THE HYDROLOGY SECTION.
LATEST 12Z DATA HIGHLIGHTS A SMALL WINDOW FOR SOME ISOLATED STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FROM ROUGHLY 18Z (2PM) TO 22Z (6PM), FAVORED ALONG
OR SOUTH OF I-94, WHERE SURFACE BASED CAPE BRIEFLY WEDGES IN AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT. HREF MEAN CAPE VALUES RANGE FROM AROUND 800 J/KG
DOWN TO THE MI/OH BORDER AND UPWARDS TO 300 J/KG ACROSS THE METRO
REGION. HODOGRAPHS ARE RELATIVE STRAIGHT FROM 0-3KM OWING TO THE
UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS. ANY TYPE OF DEVELOPMENT JUST AHEAD OR ALONG THE
COLD FRONT COULD HAVE SOME BETTER STRUCTURE WITH SOME BOWING THAT
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH LOCALIZED GUST
POTENTIAL TO AROUND 60 MPH. ML-OUTPUT HIGHLIGHTS A SLIGHTLY ELEVATED
CHANCE FOR TORNADO PROBABILITIES WITHIN THE SAME AREA -- 0-3 KM
SHEAR VECTOR ORIENTATION IS POOR RELATIVE TO THE PROJECTED STORM
MOTION AND 0-1KM HODOGRAPHS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE TO TORNADOGENESIS.
HOWEVER, CANNOT RULE OUT SOME HIGHLY LOCALIZED STREAMWISE VORTICITY
DRIVEN BY BACKED SURFACE WINDS ALONG THE MARINE LAYER INTERFACE. ANY
OVERACHIEVEMENT OF INSTABILITY COULD EXPAND THE FOOTPRINT FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE POTENTIAL INTO THE NORTH METRO REGION THROUGH PORT HURON AS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST SWODY1, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS EXPANDED
FOOTPRINT IS LOW.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH BY THE LATE EVENING, ENDING ALL
RAIN CHANCES WHILE ADVECTING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. LOWS DROP INTO THE
30S SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH PAVES THE WAY FOR BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO LAST THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE NEXT LIKELY
CHANCE FOR SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION THEN ENTERS ON MONDAY AS A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES ARRIVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. MORNING
TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S BRING THE CHANCE FOR MELTING SNOW TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES WARM UP INTO THE 40S BY THE AFTERNOON
BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN, BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LOWER
FREEZING LEVELS COULD BRING SOME GRAUPEL WITH ANY CONVECTIVE BASED
SHOWERS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY WHICH EFFECTIVELY
ENDS ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CLEARING SKIES DOES BRING WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE WEEK, WITH LOWS IN THE 20S
AND HIGHS HOLDING IN THE 30S TO LOW 40S TUESDAY.
MARINE
EASTERLY WIND INCREASES THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING IN FROM THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. 20 TO
25 KT WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
WIND MAGNITUDE ACROSS NORTHERN LAKE HURON WHERE FETCH IS MAXIMIZED.
BRIEF GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES IN THIS AREA
MAINLY BETWEEN 8AM AND 2PM, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW FOR A GALE
WARNING. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN THE SOUTH. AS THE CENTER OF THE
LOW REACHES THE STRAITS THIS EVENING, WIND DIRECTION VEERS AROUND TO
SOUTHWEST AND REMAINS GUSTY TO AROUND 20 TO 25 KT. STRONG COLD
ADVECTION FOLLOWS THIS SYSTEM ON SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT
LIKELY THROUGH THE DAY. A GALE WATCH WAS CONSIDERED FOR NORTHERN
LAKE HURON ON SUNDAY FOR 35 KT GALES, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS BELOW
CRITERIA AT THIS TIME. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE LAKE HURON NEARSHORE WATERS AND ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR LAKE ST. CLAIR AND WESTERN LAKE ERIE FOR SUNDAY. THE
GRADIENT RELAXES MONDAY CAUSING WIND MAGNITUDE TO WEAKEN, THEN A
SERIES OF CLIPPER SYSTEMS BRING COOLER AIR AND CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HYDROLOGY
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN, BEFORE A
COLD FRONT THEN BRINGS A LINE OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHERN
THUMB WILL EXPERIENCE LONGER RESIDENCE TIME FOR PRECIPITATION TODAY
GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS BRINGS INCREASING
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCAL TOTALS TO ACHIEVE OR EXCEED 1", WITH THE
CURRENT FORECAST HIGHLIGHTING POSSIBLY TOTALS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5"
ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB.
FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH, BASIN AVERAGES RANGE BETWEEN A HALF-INCH TO
THREE-QUARTER INCHES. HOWEVER, ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED TOTAL NEARING OR EXCEEDING 1".
SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SAGINAW RIVER.
LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS REMAIN POSSIBLE
WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1202 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
AVIATION...
CONVECTION IS STARTING TO SPREAD NORTH OF THE STATE LINE AS OF 04Z,
AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FILL IN AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE WHILE THE
FORCING WORKS NORTHWARD EARLY IN THE FORECAST FOR A FEW HOURS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAT THEY WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD ENOUGH
ACROSS DETROIT TO REMAIN IMPACTFUL. MBS AND FNT WILL BE UNDER THE
ELEVATED FRONT THROUGH MID MI LONGER TODAY WHICH COULD KEEP THEM
EMBEDDED IN SHOWERS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. IFR CIGS FOR SEVERAL HOURS IN THE MORNING
AFTERNOON SHOULD GET WASHED OUT WITH THE SECOND MAIN BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.
EASTERLY WINDS TONIGHT WILL FLIP TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT AND EVENTUALLY WESTERLY LATER IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT.
FOR DTW...TWO MAIN WINDOWS FOR CONVECTION TO WATCH. THE FIRST WILL
BE OVERNIGHT FROM 05-09Z AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. THERE IS A
CHANCE FOR SMALL HAIL, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. AFTER A
POTENTIAL LULL IN ACTIVITY IN THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON THE
COLD FRONTAL BAND OF STORMS WILL PASS EASTWARD FROM ABOUT 17-21Z.
THESE STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS AS WE LIE ON THE EXTREME
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
* MODERATE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-441.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY
FOR LHZ442-443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......TF
HYDROLOGY....AM
AVIATION.....DRK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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