320
FXUS63 KDTX 061905
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
305 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- STRETCH OF COLDER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. MILDER AIR
RETURNS FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK.
- SHOWERS PRODUCING A MIX OF RAIN AND GRAUPEL/SNOW PELLETS CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. SNOW BEGINS TO MIX IN AND BECOMES
THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
- BRIEF HIGHER INTENSITY BURSTS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, WITH A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES IN ISOLATED AREAS. NORTHEASTERN THUMB HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
GET CLIPPED BY LAKE EFFECT BANDS OFF HURON AND SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
ACCUMULATION BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.
- THE NEXT CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE THURSDAY AND LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF FRIDAY.
DISCUSSION
MID-UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO GOVERN CONDITIONS LOCALLY ALLOWING
A COUPLE OF SHEARED SHORTWAVES TO TRACK INTO THE REGION. THE SECOND
OF THESE IS BEGINNING TO ARRIVE OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON
SPURRING THE DEVELOPMENT SCATTERED SHOWERS. GIVEN WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS ONLY SITTING AROUND 2KFT AND DIURNAL HEATING SUPPORTING
SHARP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, GRAUPEL IS LIKELY (AND COULD BE THE
PREDOMINANT P-TYPE) WITHIN THE MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE CELLS. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE CELLS GIVEN THE WEAK
INSTABILITY AND AVAILABILITY OF ICE WITHIN THE CLOUD. GREATEST
SHOWER COVERAGE ARRIVES THIS EVENING AS A RESPECTABLE COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE STATE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE WET BULB ZERO
HEIGHTS FURTHER FALLING AOB 1KFT AS COLD ADVECTION RAMPS UP WHICH
WOULD ALLOW SOME SNOW TO MIX IN, PARTICULARLY IN THE THUMB WHERE
COLUMNS ARE COOLEST. A GOOD POP OF NW WIND IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH 35-40MPH GUSTS POSSIBLE.
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION FOLLOWS THROUGH TONIGHT KEEPING WINDS BREEZY
GUSTING 25-30MPH AS 850MB TEMPS FALL TO -12 TO -14C. RESULTANT WIND
CHILLS REACH LOWER TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS F AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DROP
TO THE LOWER 20S. MAGNITUDE OF COLD AIRMASS IS SUPPORTIVE OF
SCATTERED LAKE EFFECT FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. MOST AREAS SEE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION THOUGH
ISOLATED AREAS COULD PICK UP A DUSTING TO HALF INCH ON
GRASSY/EVALUATED SURFACES. ONE EXCEPTION IS THE NORTHEASTERN THUMB
WHO, SEEING AN EARLY CHANGEOVER TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND POTENTIAL
FOR LAKE HURON LAKE EFFECT BANDS TO CLIP SHORE, COULD PICK UP AN
INCH OR TWO BY SUNRISE TUESDAY. THERMAL TROUGHING HOLDS FOR THE DAY
TUESDAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES MUCH BELOW AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S FOR MOST OF THE CWA- SOUTHERN AREAS ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE OHIO
BORDER STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO REACH 40.
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST TUESDAY NIGHT USHERING IN MILDER
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS 850MB TEMPS
RETURN TO THE POSITIVE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS C. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES
RETURN BY DAYTIME THURSDAY AS A BROAD NORTHERN ONTARIO LOW DRAGS A
COLD FRONT INTO LOWER MI. MID-RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THIS FRONT SLOWING, POTENTIALLY STALLING, OVER SOUTHERN
LOWER MI LATE THURSDAY AS PARENT TROUGHING RAPIDLY LIFTS INTO
NORTHERN QUEBEC TURNING THE FRONTAL SLOPE PARALLEL TO MEAN FLOW. A
SECONDARY TRAILING SHORTWAVE ARRIVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY
NIGHT-FRIDAY REINVIGORATING THE REMNANT BAROCLINIC ZONE AND OFFERING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY CLEARS
SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. WITH THE RECENT HEAVIER RAIN/FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, THIS POTENTIAL FOR
LONGER DURATION RAINFALL WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR. FURTHER
ADJUSTMENTS/REFINEMENTS TO THE EXACT POSITIONING OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL TO COME IN FURTHER FORECAST
CYCLES.
MARINE
LOW PRESSURE CARVES ACROSS LAKE HURON THIS EVENING, DRAGGING A COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE REGION AND SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. A BRIEF
POP IN WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS EVENING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT AS NORTHWEST GRADIENT FLOW INCREASES WAVE HEIGHTS INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN BRIEFLY TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT IMPACTFUL LOW, WHICH TRACKS ACROSS ONTARIO LATE IN THE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM BRINGS A 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY MORNING, ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
DEPICT A VERY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER THAT PREVENTS THIS MAGNITUDE OF
GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE OVER THE OPEN WATERS. NOCTURNAL
TIMING OF THE JET SHOULD ALSO PREVENT OVERACHIEVEMENT OF GUSTS ALONG
THE LAND-LAKE INTERFACE. EXPECTATION WITH THIS SYSTEM IS THUS
SUSTAINED SOUTHERLY FLOW OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS, AND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO
35 KNOT RANGE. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE RESPONSIBLE FOR NUMEROUS
ROUNDS OF RAIN AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AS IT
DRAWS A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1257 PM EDT MON APR 6 2026
AVIATION...
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES LOW PRESSURE SLIDES INTO ONTARIO WHILE PULLING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY APRIL SUN ANGLE
HAS ALREADY PRODUCED A STRATOCU RESPONSE IN THE MVFR RANGE AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS AS BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY BUILDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT. THERMAL PROFILES IN MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE ON THE WARM SIDE
FOR SNOW, HOWEVER THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW PELLETS OR GRAUPEL
IN THE STRONGEST POCKETS OF CONVECTION MAINLY TOWARD FNT AND MBS. A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER IS ALSO IN REACH BUT WITH LOW PREDICTABILITY AT
ANY ONE OF THE TERMINAL SITES. MORE COMMON WILL BE WIND GUSTS IN THE
30-40 MPH RANGE IN SHOWERS HAVING ANY GREATER INTENSITY, AND
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS SE MI. WIND THEN
REMAINS ELEVATED POST FRONT THIS EVENING WHILE CEILING QUICKLY
BUILDS UP INTO LOW END VFR AND THEN SCATTERS OUT LATE TONIGHT. WIND
DIRECTION SHIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH IS FAVORABLE FOR THE CLEARING
TREND FOLLOWED BY A NEW ROUND OF DAYTIME CLOUDS BY LATE TUESDAY
MORNING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* HIGH FOR CEILING AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. LOW TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING.
* MODERATE FOR RAIN/PELLET MIX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ421.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR LHZ422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....BT
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