457
FXUS63 KDTX 070901
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
501 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDEST CONDITIONS OF THE WEEK WITH EXIST TODAY. A WARMING TREND
WILL THEN COMMENCE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE
FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE SCOURS OUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE MORNING,
LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. SOME ISOLATED GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS REMAIN
LIKELY THROUGH THE MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS TAKING HOLD BY THE LATE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVERHEAD. NORTH FLOW TURNS
VARIABLE IN THE AFTERNOON, WITH WIND DIRECTION THEN TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY BY THE EVENING.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 219 AM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
DISCUSSION...
HIGHER MAGNITUDE COLD HELD WITHIN DEEPER LAYER NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG
THE BACKSIDE OF BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGHING NOW ENTRENCHED LOCALLY
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTIVE PROCESS
CONTRIBUTING TO SOME LINGERING POCKETS OF STRATUS AND THE OCCASIONAL
FLURRY. A STEADY LEVEL OF DRYING UNDER IMPROVING COLUMN STABILITY AS
HIGH PRESSURE ENCROACHES WILL EFFECTIVELY SCOUR OUT THIS MOIST
LAYER GOING FORWARD THIS MORNING, WITH THE EASTERN THUMB LIKELY THE
SLOWEST AS SOME DEGREE OF MOISTURE FLUX OFF LAKE HURON PERSISTS.
RESIDENT THERMAL PROFILE WILL FEATURE AN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -14
TO -16C TODAY, SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A SURFACE TEMP AT ROUGHLY 15
TO 20 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S. ANY LINGERING
EARLY DAY GUSTINESS FADES WITH TIME AS THE SURFACE HIGH INCREASES
INFLUENCE THIS AFTERNOON. DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH
PLENTY OF OPEN SKY. LOWS BROADLY DISTRIBUTED IN THE 20S.
BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY. MODERATING THERMAL PROFILE
WITHIN THE BACKGROUND OF BUILDING LARGE SCALE UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
OFFER A RESPECTABLE UPTICK IN DAYLIGHT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS ARRIVING
NEAR AVERAGE FOR EARLY APRIL. EASTERN EXTENSION OF A WARM FRONT
ATTENDANT TO AN ORGANIZING SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE DAY. STILL LITTLE INDICATION OF ANYTHING
MORE THAN SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD WITH THIS FEATURE, AS MORE
MEANINGFUL MOISTURE TRANSPORT HANGS WELL TO THE WEST. A MORE
CONCERTED PERIOD OF WARM AIR ADVECTION THEN EMERGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS GREATER HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES SOUTH OF THE PARENT LOW EJECTING ACROSS
ONTARIO. THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY DRAW THE COLD FRONT INTO LOWER
MICHIGAN, OFFERING AN INITIAL WINDOW FOR SHOWER PRODUCTION AS HIGHER
QUALITY THETA-E ALIGNS WITH THE SOUTHEAST SAGGING BOUNDARY. HIGHEST
PROBABILITY OF PRECIP CENTERED 09Z-18Z EARLY THURSDAY, BEFORE
MEANINGFUL UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY FADES ALONG
THE FRONTAL SLOPE. LIMITED AVAILABLE INSTABILITY GIVEN THE
UNFAVORABLE TIMING WITH GENERALLY LIGHT QPF OFFERED BY THE COLLECTIVE
ENSEMBLE - INTERQUARTILE RANGE FROM A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO LESS THAN
QUARTER OF AN INCH. MILDER RESIDENT AIRMASS THURSDAY AFFORDS HIGHS
BACK INTO THE 60S.
FAVORABLE UNDERLYING ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST FOR A SECONDARY AND
POTENTIALLY MORE MEANINGFUL PERIOD OF RAIN TO DEVELOP THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL WAVE SHEARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
BROADER MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INITIATE ANOTHER PERIOD OF DEEPER
MOISTURE TRANSPORT /PW OVER 1 INCH/ AS 850 MB FLOW REACHES UPWARDS
OF 50 KNOTS. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO EMERGE ALONG THE
STALLED FRONTAL ZONE PROJECTED TO LINGER IN VICINITY OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. FORECAST CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A MODERATE PROBABILITY FOR
RAIN, WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY YET IN EXACT FRONTAL POSITIONING.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY OFFERS .3" FOR MEAN QPF AND ROUGHLY .5"
AT THE 75TH PERCENTILE. TRAILING HEIGHT FALLS WILL FINALLY SHUNT THE
FRONTAL ZONE SOUTH BY FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS RETURNING
FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO A DRIER DAY
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTHWEST FLOW HOLDS THROUGH MOST OF THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH KEEPS WAVES ELEVATED ENOUGH FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING WHILE THE NEXT LOW TRACKS TOWARD ONTARIO. BROAD
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING OCCURS AS THE LOW APPROACHES LATE THIS
WEEK, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING TO 25-30 KNOTS BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. A STRONG 60-70 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS WELL, BUT STABLE CONDITIONS PREVENT MUCH OF THAT FROM
MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MOST AREAS WILL SEE GUSTS CAPPED BELOW 35
KNOTS, WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS BEING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN. THE
LOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
WEEK, RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AT TIMES. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO START THE
WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR LHZ421.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AM
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
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