479
FXUS63 KDTX 080346
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1146 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A WARMING TREND BEGINS AS HIGHS RETURN TO THE 50S WEDNESDAY AND
60S THURSDAY, EXCEPT COOLER NEAR LAKE HURON.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, AND REMAINS THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
- COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
CENTER OF MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND DEEP ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE WILL
PUSH FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EASTWARD TO THE WESTERN LAKE ONTARIO BASIN
BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A DRY AIR MASS AND A FAVORABLE RADIATIVE COOLING
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT. RETURN
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PUSH INTO LOWER MICHIGAN AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY. WING OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLOUD
ABOVE 8.0-10.0 KFT AGL. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS WEDNESDAY OF 10 TO 25
KNOTS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT TUE APR 7 2026
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN
IMPRESSIVELY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE
30S, DESPITE FULL EARLY APRIL SUN. THESE READINGS ARE WELL BELOW
NORMALS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COLD
NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON DECREASING CLOUD TREND LEAVES
CLEAR SKY IN PLACE WITH LIGHT NORTH WIND SHIFTING EASTWARD THIS
EVENING FOR A FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP. TEMPERATURES DROP
INTO THE 20S NOT LONG AFTER SUNSET, BUT THEN BECOME STEADY MAINLY
DUE TO WIND INCREASING FROM THE SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE IS ALSO
SOME HIGH CLOUD INCREASE AND POSSIBLY A FEW POCKETS OF STRATOCU FROM
LAKE ERIE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE REACHES THE ATLANTIC COAST AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LOWER MI
IS BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS AND WITHIN A TEXTBOOK WARM ADVECTION
PATTERN. ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PRONOUNCED ON THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE THETA-E RIDGE BUT NOT QUITE ABLE TO OVERCOME LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR STILL FEEDING IN ON STREAMLINES OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST HIGH
PRESSURE. WE END UP WITH HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING DURING
THE MORNING ALONG WITH A VIRGA FOOTPRINT ON RADAR UNTIL SHIFTING
NORTHWARD TOWARD MID AFTERNOON. SE MI IS NOT FULLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WITH A LINGERING SE COMPONENT ON
THE SURFACE WIND, HOWEVER GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID
50S ARE REACHABLE FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. THE SLIGHT ONSHORE WIND
DIRECTION HOLDS READINGS WELL DOWN IN THE 40S TOWARD LAKE HURON.
CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD WEDNESDAY NIGHT UNTIL LATE NIGHT
ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AXIS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE INBOUND COLD FRONT.
TODAY'S 12Z MODELS INDICATE GOOD AGREEMENT ON SOLUTIONS THAT SHOW
THE UPPER MIDWEST LOW OCCLUDING INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO WHILE DRAWING
A BAND OF SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL LOWER MI BY THURSDAY MORNING. THE
MOISTURE AXIS IS MATURE BUT THE BOUNDARY LEANS FRONTOLYTIC UNDER THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. TIMING IS ALSO NOT GREAT
DURING THE MORNING DIURNAL INSTABILITY MINIMUM WHICH LIMITS
MAINTENANCE OF MUCH MORE THAN CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AS THE BAND
PROGRESSES ACROSS SE MI. BLENDED POP GUIDANCE OFFERS A REASONABLE
REFLECTION OF THESE TRENDS FROM BORDERLINE WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OVER
THE SAGINAW VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DOWN TO HIGHER END SCATTERED
COVERAGE WITH LOW QPF ACROSS THE REST OF SE MI AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SHOWER POTENTIAL THEN PEAKS THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
FRONT STALLS IN THE OHIO VALLEY AND REACTIVATES ALOFT OVER LOWER MI.
TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE UPPER WAVE AGAIN LOOK GOOD AMONG THE 12Z
MODEL RUNS AS THE WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NOCTURNAL
TIMING IN THIS CASE IS FAVORABLE FOR LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFICATION
DOWNSTREAM AND ALONG THE 850-700 MB FRONTAL ZONE SUPPORTING A FLARE-
UP OF SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. CONSENSUS OF MODEL QPF AMONG THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS
SHOWS A LARGER FOOTPRINT OF 0.5 INCH TOTALS OVER ABOUT A 12 HOUR
EVENT WITH LOCALIZED TOTALS UP TO 1 INCH BEFORE ENDING EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS ACROSS IN/OH THURSDAY NIGHT AND NEVER
REALLY MAKES A NORTHWARD MOVE DURING THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY RAIN
EVENT. IT IS THEN DRIVEN WELL SOUTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AS
PRECIPITATION EXITS LOWER MI FRIDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE EXITS
EASTWARD LEAVING SUBSIDENCE AND HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND DRIVE THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THIS INBOUND HIGH PRESSURE AIR MASS BRINGS DRY WEATHER AND ONLY
DROPS TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 50S (COMPARED TO 30S TODAY) FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, LEADING TO DRIER
AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS THIS EVENING AND
FLIPS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE TRANSLATES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADA BORDER TRACKS TOWARD ONTARIO. PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONSTRICTION OCCURS AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD
PREVENT COMPARABLE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS CAPPED BELOW 35 KNOTS, WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
BEING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN. A FEW GUSTS TO GALES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN GALE HEADLINES.
THE LOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY DRAW A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR
A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO START
THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKER WINDS AND LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...BT
MARINE.......KGK
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