030
FXUS63 KDTX 080952
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
552 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TODAY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN STARTING
TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY.
- COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
DRY AND STABLE LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL HOLD TODAY, ENSURING
WIDESPREAD VFR ACROSS SE MICHIGAN. A PERIOD OF THICKER MID LEVEL
CLOUD WILL LIFT THROUGH EARLY TODAY, FOLLOWED BY PERIODIC CIRRUS
INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EARLY DAY SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFTING TO SOUTHERLY
WHILE STRENGTHENING TO 15-20 KNOTS. POTENTIAL FOR SOME GUSTINESS TO
EMERGE THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY FROM FNT NORTHWARD. HOWEVER, A
HIGH DEGREE OF STABILITY MAY TEND TO LIMIT BOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND
FREQUENCY. SOME INTERVALS OF GUSTINESS MAY EXIST TONIGHT ALL
LOCATIONS, AS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN OFF
THE SURFACE. THIS EXPECTATION CURRENTLY PRECLUDES A MENTION OF LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR, BUT MAY REQUIRE FURTHER CONSIDERATION SHOULD
STABILITY MAINTAIN GREATER INFLUENCE. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
ARRIVES LATE TONIGHT AND SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY.
THIS WILL BRING SOME REDUCTION OF CLOUD BASE AS SHOWERS INCREASE IN
COVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT THURSDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT WED APR 8 2026
DISCUSSION...
RETURN FLOW FROM A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS MOVING INTO NEW
ENGLAND AND APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT WILL
AID IN USHERING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL BRING TEMPERATURE HIGHS IN THE 50S TODAY ALONG WITH
SLIGHTLY BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH SOUTHWEST GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL TODAY OUTSIDE OF A VERY LOW BRIEF CHANCE FOR A
RAIN SHOWER IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB
ALONG AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT.
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT ACROSS
MICHIGAN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT WEAKENS AS THE FRONT PASSES SE MI AS IT TRAVERSES AN
ENVIRONMENT NO INSTABILITY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS
THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE MI FROM ROUGHLY 08Z THU - 18Z THU. THE BEST
COVERAGE WILL BE ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES WHERE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FRONT IS MAXIMIZED, WITH DECREASING COVERAGE LEADING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
BRINGING AFTERNOON SUNSHINE WITH DAYTIME HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE 60S.
BEHIND THE FRONT AND PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH PRESSURE, IMPROVED
MIXING DEPTHS WILL MIX DOWN GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS.
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN ARRIVE FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON
ALONG A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCELERATE OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE DAY ONCE A STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES. SOME
ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL JET COULD BRINGS SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL.
THERMAL PROFILES ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES AND NORTHERN THUMB COULD
SUPPORT A PERIOD OF MELTING SNOWFLAKES BEFORE A TRANSITION TO RAIN.
PLEASE SEE THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. HIGH
PRESSURE FILLS IN LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, LEADING TO DRY
CONDITIONS.
SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD WILL HAVE MULTIPLE CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED
LOW SYSTEM OVER THE CONTINENTAL SOUTHWEST GRADUALLY MOVES IN ACROSS
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE AMPLIFIED
TROUGHING OVER THE WEST WILL ALLOW GULF MOISTURE SO STREAM IN INTO
THE PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT AND TRAILING
SHORTWAVE SUNDAY-MONDAY AND COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY BRINGS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, LEADING TO DRIER
AND LESS WINDY CONDITIONS. NORTHWEST FLOW WEAKENS THIS EVENING AND
FLIPS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE TRANSLATES INTO
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES, WHILE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
US/CANADA BORDER TRACKS TOWARD ONTARIO. PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONSTRICTION OCCURS AS THE LOW APPROACHES, WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. A 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL
JET MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT, BUT LOW-LEVEL STABILITY SHOULD
PREVENT COMPARABLE GUSTS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE GUSTS CAPPED BELOW 35 KNOTS, WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS
BEING THE MAIN MARINE CONCERN. A FEW GUSTS TO GALES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT, BUT SHOULD BE INFREQUENT ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE AN GALE HEADLINES.
HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS THE SAGINAW BAY
AND INTO PORT HURON. THE LOW WILL ALSO SLOWLY DRAW A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK, RESULTING IN SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH
PRESSURE THEN RETURNS TO START THE WEEKEND WITH WEAKER WINDS AND
LOWER WAVE HEIGHTS.
HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. RAIN TOTALS TO RANGE FROM TRACE AMOUNTS UP TO .2" INCHES,
PENDING INTEGRITY OF COVERAGE ALONG THE FRONT. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. AROUND A HALF-INCH OF ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED, WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO AROUND 1" POSSIBLE
WITH ANY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW-LYING OR
FLOOD PRONE AREAS REMAIN LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BUT OVERALL
FLOODING CONCERNS REMAIN LOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT THURSDAY
FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM
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