383
FXUS63 KDTX 090940
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
540 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BRINGS AND BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WITH BROKEN COVERAGE THIS MORNING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH WIDER COVERAGE AND GREATER
INTENSITY DEVELOPS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.
- DRY WEATHER AND COOLER BUT STILL NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOLLOW
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BUT ALSO WITH AN
ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
COLD FRONT ON PACE TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A NARROW AXIS OF HIGHER
MID LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH SOME POCKETS OF LIGHT SHOWER PRODUCTION.
RETENTION OF A DRY LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MAINTAINS SUPPORT FOR
PREVAILING VFR THROUGHOUT THIS TIME. WINDS TODAY INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, WITH GUSTINESS INTO THE 25 KNOT RANGE AT TIMES. A PERIOD
MOSTLY SKIES OR THINNING CIRRUS FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, BEFORE MID
CLOUD THICKENS AGAIN THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A DEEPER SURGE OF
MOISTURE. SHOWER EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS FLIPPING TO THE NORTHEAST/EAST
OVERNIGHT AS THE ELEVATED FRONTAL ZONE STRENGTHENS OVER THE REGION.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* LOW FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5000 FT TODAY. MEDIUM LATE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT THU APR 9 2026
DISCUSSION...
THE LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS NOW MOVING IN ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. BETTER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE TRI- CITIES AND THUMB, ALIGNED WITH THE STRONGER FORCING.
FRONTOLYTIC TENDENCIES INCREASE AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE
METRO REGION AND INTO THE MI/OH BORDER LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECTATION IS FOR THE LINE OF RAIN
SHOWERS TO HOLD UP REASONABLE WELL THIS MORNING WITH SOME WANING
COVERAGE POSSIBLE LATE THIS MORNING BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
STALLS OUT AROUND THE STATE LINE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL SUPPORT THE LOW CHANCE FOR LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MONROE AND LENAWEE COUNTIES.
HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FILLS IN IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT,
PROMOTING CLEARING TRENDS AND SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL AGAIN BE NEAR OR SOUTH OF I-94 WHERE THE STALLED
BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN THE CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER.
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WILL EFFICIENTLY
MIX INTO THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, BRINGING BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH
GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 35 MPH.
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL WILL LIFT BACK NORTH TOMORROW MORNING AS
A NOCTURNAL JET EXPANDS ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. FORCING ALONG THE
FRONT AND STRONG UNBALANCED FLOW ON THE NOSE OF THE JET WILL GENERATE
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS SE MI THROUGH THE MORNING. A RUMBLE
OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE THE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED BUT
OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS STABLE, PROMOTING MAINLY RAIN
SHOWERS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS IN LATE FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ENDS RAIN CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, LEADING TO PARTLY SUNNY/MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AS
LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HOLDS UNDER AN ESTABLISHED
INVERSION. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS OVER THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DAYTIME MIXING WILL SCOUR OUT CLOUDS, LEADING
TO SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
DEPARTURE OF HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEW ENGLAND AND WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH DEVELOPMENT AND PASSAGE OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL SET UP A MODERATE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE GREAT LAKES
AND WILL USHER IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE
REGION ALONG WITH ALONG WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL BRING
A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE, LIKELY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO
LOW 70S AT TIMES, ALONG WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER. PASSAGE OF THE WARM
FRONT AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL EXIST
TUESDAY WITH GLANCING SHORTWAVES, AND AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. OVERALL, ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WITH MULTIPLE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD.
MARINE...
SOUTHERLY FLOW GRADUALLY DECREASES THIS MORNING AND VEERS TOWARD THE
WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY, BEHIND AN ONTARIO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW TIED TO THE PASSING
LOW ALSO DEPARTS WHICH ENSUES PEAK MORNING GUSTS STAY BELOW GALES,
PARTICULARLY FOR CENTRAL LAKE HURON WHERE THERE WAS PRIOR CONCERN.
THE WAVE RESPONSE BECOMES LESS PROMINENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES, BUT
STILL EXCEED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE SOUTHERN HURON
NEARSHORE ZONES, THEREFORE AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS DECREASE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH LOW
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. A WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE PLAINS LEADS TO
ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL IS MORE LIKELY FOR THE
NORTH/CENTRAL HURON BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS OUT OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST TO START THE WEEKEND WITH DRIER AND WEAKER NORTHWEST
FLOW. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
DUE TO SEVERAL PASSING DISTURBANCES. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR GUSTS TO
GALES, MAINLY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
HYDROLOGY...
A COLD FRONT BRINGS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS FIRST INTO THE TRI CITIES
THIS MORNING MORNING WHICH THEN MOVES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS
THE REST OF SE MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY. BROKEN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
PRODUCES RAINFALL TOTALS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.2 INCH AS THE BAND
WEAKENS WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND THEN EXITS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. A SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS DEVELOPS MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT AND LASTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM BRINGS
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER A WIDER AREA AVERAGING ABOUT 0.5 INCH IN
A 6 TO 12 HOUR TIME WINDOW. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED TOTALS
NEAR 1 INCH WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR BEFORE THIS PATTERN
ALSO EXITS SOUTHWARD AND EASTWARD FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FLOODING
POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW WITH THIS EVENT, ALTHOUGH THE NEW RAINFALL
COULD SLIGHTLY DELAY DRAINAGE FROM RIVER AND STREAM SYSTEMS AFTER THE
HEAVY RAIN THAT OCCURRED LAST WEEKEND.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....MR
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KGK
HYDROLOGY....AM
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