309
FXUS63 KDTX 281650
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1250 PM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES END THIS MORNING WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH REMAINDER OF THE DAY.
- SHOWER CHANCES RETURN WEDNESDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
- MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES BY LATE WEEK AND HOLDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
RESULTING IN FROST/FREEZING POTENTIAL.
AVIATION
POCKETS OF VFR HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE EAST SIDE OF THE AIRSPACE
AMIDST A BLANKET OF MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE REST OF LOWER MICHIGAN.
CEILING HEIGHTS TREND UPWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS COVERAGE
SCATTERS OUT DUE TO DIURNAL MIXING, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR
CLEARING IN THE DETROIT METRO REGION. BREEZY WSW FLOW GRADUALLY
VEERS NW AND SUBSIDES THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE PEELS
OFF TOWARD HUDSON BAY. A SECOND LOW THEN DEVELOPS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY WHICH FURTHER VEERS WINDS TO THE NE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
INTRODUCING SHOWER CHANCES THAT LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING. VARIABLE
CEILINGS LIKELY A MIXTURE OF VFR AND MVFR AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN INTO
A STRENGTHENING DEFORMATION ZONE WEDNESDAY.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* HIGH FOR CEILINGS AOB 5000 FEET THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH AGAIN WEDNESDAY MORNING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 329 AM EDT TUE APR 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ONGOING EARLY THIS MORNING WITH ASCENT ALONG
THE WARM FRONT DRIVEN BY AN IMPRESSIVE 50-60 KNOT LOWER LEVEL JET.
LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY STILL PRECLUDES SEVERE WEATHER, BUT ANY
THUNDERSTORM MAY STILL HAVE AT LEAST SOME LOW POTENTIAL TO BRING
DOWN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL. WAKE LOW
WINDS MAY ALSO LEAD TO ISOLATED GUSTY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING.
RELATIVELY BRIEF TIME SPENT IN THE WARM SECTOR BEFORE THE SYSTEMS
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATER THIS MORNING AS
THE MAIN SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTH OF LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS MAINTAINS
THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGH ABOUT 12Z
BEFORE DRY AIR STARTS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. POST FRONTAL WEST WINDS
WILL BE A GUSTY TO 25-30 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK COLD ADVECTION
SUPPORTS MIXING INTO AROUND 30 KNOTS OF FLOW. GUSTS WEAKEN THIS
EVENING AS LOWER LEVEL FLOW DROPS SIGNIFICANTLY WITH TIME. LINGERING
CLOUDS COVER HELPS KEEP OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 40S.
CANADIAN TROUGHING TAKES OVER THE REGION MID-WEEK MARKING THE
BEGINNING TO A STRETCH OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL CARRY
INTO THE MONTH MAY. TOMORROW MORNING WILL SEE A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW LIFT THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ALONG EXISTING FRONTAL ZONE.
FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF DEFORMATION NORTH OF THE THE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LEADING TO INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
STARTING AROUND 09Z WEDNESDAY MORNING AND LINGERING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS ARE FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN.
THE MAIN ITEM TO NOTE FOR THE LATE WEEK PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND WILL
BE THE FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW NIGHTS AS POLAR TROUGHING
SETTLES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL USHER IN
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN TO AROUND -5C BY THURSDAY MORNING, WHICH
WILL PERSIST AROUND THAT TEMPERATURE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENTLY, THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE THE COLDEST
NIGHTS GIVEN THE CLOUD FORECAST AND THE BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING
POTENTIAL. OUTGOING FORECAST HAS OVERNIGHT LOWS THESE NIGHTS AT 32
DEGREES TO 2-3 DEGREES BELOW. OF LESSER IMPACT DURING THIS TIME,
WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODIC ISOLATED LAKE INDUCED LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF RAIN, GRAUPEL, AND/OR WET SNOWFLAKES
EACH DAY AS OVERLAKE INSTABILITY PRODUCES HIGHER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS
AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THIS ACTIVITY. DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL MOSTLY RESIDE AROUND THE
50 DEGREE MARK.
MARINE...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS LAKE SUPERIOR AND MOVES INTO CENTRAL
ONTARIO THIS MORNING AS ITS EXPANSIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD MIGRATES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON, NORTH OF STURGEON POINT. WINDS WITHIN
THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS CAUSING
LINGERING OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALES TO DIMINISH. MEANWHILE,
INBOUND/ONGOING CONVECTION PERSISTS UNTIL MIDDAY AS THE SYSTEM'S
WARM FRONT SURGES ACROSS THE EASTERN UP. THE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD AUGMENT STABILITY PROFILES, EVEN AS THE STRONGEST LOWER
COLUMN FLOW EXITS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ALSO REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
ALL NEARSHORE WATERS UNTIL AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO PERSISTENT
ELEVATED WINDS/WAVES. THE SYSTEM'S COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THROUGH
THE WATERWAYS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE MIDDAY PERIOD LEADING
TO CALMER WEATHER AND A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
EVENTUALLY BUILDS IN MID-WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......KGK
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