891
FXUS63 KDTX 291100
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
700 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE THE REST OF THE
WEEK, BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS EACH MORNING
THRU SUNDAY.
AVIATION
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH MID LEVEL ASCENT FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. CEILING TRENDS OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH
ONGOING ACTIVITY THIS MORNING, SO WILL LEAN THE FORECAST THIS WAY
AND KEEP VFR CEILINGS WITH MORNING SHOWER ACTIVITY. CEILINGS ARE IN
THE LOW VFR CATEGORY, SO A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STILL IS POSSIBLE.
BETTER MVFR SIGNAL IS CLOSER TO THE FRONT SOUTH OF THE STATE. N-NE
LIGHT WINDS TODAY AS THE LOW PROGRESSES THROUGHOUT THE DAY. HI-RES
MODELS POINTING TOWARDS SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AS MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD, SO HAVE INTRODUCED A
PROB30 ACROSS THE AREA. CEILING TRENDS START TO LOWER, BUT WILL KEEP
SCATTERED COVERAGE FOR THE LOWER CEILINGS AT THIS TIME. BORDERLINE
MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
BACK TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* MODERATE FOR CEILINGS AT OR BELOW 5,000 FEET THIS MORNING. HIGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT WED APR 29 2026
DISCUSSION...
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST MERGES WITH A
CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED SHORTWAVE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING.
THE RESULT WILL BE A DEEPENING SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
STALLED BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH AND TRACKS INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. THE DEEPER MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, BUT WILL SEE POCKETS OF LIGHT
SHOWERS TRACK THROUGH THIS MORNING AS TRANSIENT FGEN EXCITES THE 600-
700MB FRONT OVERHEAD. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MEASURING AROUND 0.10"
WILL BE SOUTH OF METRO DETROIT WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED FORCING AND
DEEPEST MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
LOW-LEVEL DRY AIR IS SHOWN TO SPREAD BACK IN FROM THE NORTH AS THE
ELEVATED FORCING PEELS AWAY MIDDAY, FAVORING MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
EAST OF US-23 THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. AS PVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MIDWEST TROUGH TRACKS IN LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING, ADDITIONAL
SPOTTY SHOWERS EXPAND IN COVERAGE OVER INTERIOR LOWER MI AND PERSIST
INTO PARTS OF TONIGHT. THIS WAVE PASSING THROUGH ALSO PRODUCES A
HEALTHY COVERAGE OF LOWER CLOUD OVERNIGHT, WHICH WITH A WEAK
GRADIENT WIND IS FORECAST TO PREVENT WIDER DEVELOPMENT OF FROST.
SOME PATCHY FROST STILL POSSIBLE AS 2M TEMPS SETTLE INTO THE MID 30S
OUTSIDE OF URBAN AREAS.
THE TROUGH STALLS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, EVOLVING
INTO A CLOSED LOW THAT MEANDERS OVER THE REGION THE REST OF THE
WEEK. COOL NORTHWEST FLOW DOMINATES LOCAL CONDITIONS WITH TEMPS
FALLING ROUGHLY 10 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL AND EARLY
MAY. MOSTLY BENIGN CONDITIONS DURING THIS PERIOD, BUT EXPECT A DAILY
FLARE-UP OF SHOWERS AS THE COLD POOL ALOFT INDUCES STEEP LAPSE RATES
WITHIN THE BROAD MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW. DAILY HIGHS WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES OF 50 FAVOR RAIN SHOWERS BUT WET SNOWFLAKES POSSIBLE AT
TIMES AS WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS FALL BELOW 2KFT.
THE UPCOMING COOL PERIOD IS UNCOMMON BUT NOT COMPLETELY UNHEARD OF
FOR EARLY MAY, WITH HISTORICAL DATA SHOWING TEMPS FALLING BELOW
FREEZING DURING THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY ROUGHLY ONCE EVERY 3 TO 7
YEARS ON AVERAGE. HOWEVER, WITH THE WARM SPRING SO FAR - RANKED IN
THE TOP-10 WARMEST UP TO THIS POINT FOR MOST SITES IN SE MI - THIS
COLD COMES WITH POTENTIAL IMPACTS TO SENSITIVE VEGETATION. FRIDAY,
SATURDAY, AND SUNDAY MORNING REMAIN TARGETS FOR POTENTIAL
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IF THE
CURRENT FORECAST FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S SATURDAY MORNING
VERIFIES, SOME LOW MIN RECORDS WILL BE WITHIN REACH.
THE THERMAL TROUGH IS NUDGED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH FAVORS A
SLIGHT WARM-UP, BUT LONGWAVE TROUGHING REMAINS THE DOMINANT PATTERN
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS OFFERS SEVERAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP EVENTS, AND TEMPS GENERALLY NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL. CPC 6-10 DAY, 8-14 DAY, AND WEEK 3-4 OUTLOOKS
MAINTAIN A LEAN TOWARD CHILLY CONDITIONS WELL INTO THE MONTH OF MAY.
MARINE...
A MORE DIFFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD EMERGES TODAY AS THE CENTRAL
GREAT LAKES BECOMES POSITIONED BETWEEN SEVERAL WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREAS TO THE WEST. MID-LEVEL TROUGHING PERSISTS OVERHEAD,
LIFTING A WEAK SURFACE LOW THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS LENDS
POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT A LACK OF INSTABILITY
PRECLUDES THUNDERSTORM CONCERNS. LOCAL WINDS GENERALLY HOLD FROM THE
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORKWEEK WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR WEAKLY FORCED LIGHT PRECIPITATION. STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
THEN ATTEMPTS TO BUILD IN FROM CENTRAL CANADA/CONUS OVER THE
WEEKEND. LOW PREDICTABILITY EXISTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN
EVOLUTION THIS WEEKEND AS STALLED LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST
RETROGRADES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH SATURDAY GIVEN CURRENT WIND AND WAVE TRENDS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....AA
DISCUSSION...TF
MARINE.......KGK
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