229
FXUS63 KDTX 011856
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
256 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.
- A FREEZE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
TONIGHT.
- ONLY STRAY SHOWER CHANCE SATURDAY THOUGH MOST STAY DRY. DRY
CONDITIONS HOLD THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES RISE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED TODAY WITH SOUTHERN LOWER MI HOLDING UNDER
BROAD UPPER TROUGHING WITH WEAK CAA SUPPORTING A WIDELY SCATTERED
COVERAGE OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES. LINGERING SHOWERS WIND DOWN
AROUND SUNSET AS DIURNAL INSTABILITY WANES HOWEVER EXACTLY HOW MUCH
OF THE ACCOMPANYING CLOUD COVER CLEARS TONIGHT CARRIES A HIGH DEGREE
OF UNCERTAINTY WITH A HEALTHY SPREAD AMONGST THE HIGH RES SOLUTION
SPACE. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AREAS WEST OF I-75/US-23
STAND THE BEST CHANCE AT TRUE CLEARING AND SUBSEQUENT SUB-FREEZING
TEMPS. FOR AREAS EAST, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR ENOUGH MEANINGFUL
CLOUD TO REMAIN TO KEEP TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 32. WITH THAT
SAID, WILL ERR ON THE COOLER SIDE IN COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBOR WFOS
AND UPGRADE THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE WARNING.
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROUGHING HOLDS
OVER THE STATE FOR ONE LAST DAY CAPPING HIGHS AROUND 50F. PASSAGE OF
A TRAILING VORT MAX OFFERS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW ISOLATED/WIDELY
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS ADVERTISE A
SHALLOWER SATURATION LAYER RELATIVE TO PREVIOUS DAYS KEEPING ANY
COVERAGE MINIMAL.
TROUGH INFLUENCE BREAKS DOWN SATURDAY NIGHT AS ZONAL OR QUASI-ZONAL
MID-LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS ALLOWING ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION TO BE
DRAWN INTO LOWER MI SUNDAY. LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWER CHANCES INCREASE
LATTER HALF OF THE DAY SUNDAY AS A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE CROSSES
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. MAIN WARM ADVECTION ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY AS
DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS ESTABLISHED IN RESPONSE TO AN
ALASKAN WAVE DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. 850MB TEMPS RISE FROM
4-5C MON AM TO 8-9C BY MON PM SUPPORTING HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S
TO AROUND 70. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MONDAY EVENING-NIGHT BRINGING THE AREA'S NEXT
SHOT AT WIDER SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE A GENERAL
ACTIVE, COOLER PATTERN IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, HOW
PROGRESSIVE THIS SURFACE FRONT AND PARENT UPPER TROUGH ARE IS STILL
UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT.
MARINE
A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL STALL OVER THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH UPCOMING WEEKEND. MEANWHILE WE'LL HAVE A BROAD AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS COMBINATION WILL LEAD TO A FAIRLY
QUIET STRETCH OF MARINE WEATHER WITH MAINLY CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS
(GUSTS UNDER 15 KNOTS) THROUGH SATURDAY WITH AN OPPORTUNITY FOR A
LIGHT SHOWER MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND DIRECTION HOLDS
FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WIND DIRECTION
BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AND HOLDS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A
WARM FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. GUSTS ON SUNDAY COULD
REACH 25 KNOTS ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT IN SOME OF THE NEARSHORE
ZONES. THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND A LOW
CHANCE FOR AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 1 2026
AVIATION...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS (UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS) THIS AFTERNOON BRINGS
MODEST DRIER AIR, LIFTING CLOUD BASES 4-8 KFT RANGE. SEASONALLY COLD
AIR ALOFT AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL STILL OFFER UP ISOLATED-SCATTERED
LIGHT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. LEFT A
RESIDUAL MID CLOUD DECK IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW, AND MAY END UP BEING MOSTLY CLEAR. DIURNAL HEATING TOMORROW
LIKELY LEADS TO SOME VFR FLAT CU, AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE CIGS
OVER SOUTHERN TAFS WHERE THERE IS A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* MEDIUM FOR CIGS AOA 5000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING, THEN LOW.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KDK
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....SF
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