968
FXUS63 KDTX 030353
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM.
- BREEZY WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES AND SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
SUNDAY.
- ABNORMALLY WARM MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS, MORE SO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
AVIATION
SE MI IS BETWEEN OHIO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN NORTHERN ONTARIO LATE TONIGHT. LIGHT SW WIND
BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS WILL SOLIDIFY DURING THE MORNING UNDER A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN VFR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. A LATE MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS SHOWS A NORTHWARD SHIFT IN
THE MBS AREA BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL VIRGA FOOTPRINT
TOWARD DTW UNTIL A STRAY LIGHT SHOWER MATERIALIZES LATE IN THE DAY.
SW WIND BECOMES THE WEATHER HIGHLIGHT AS GUSTS APPROACH 30 KNOTS
DURING THE AFTERNOON STILL UNDER VFR MID LEVEL CLOUDS SUNDAY
EVENING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE PLAINS IS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES UNDER A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESULTING IN A
COOL AND CLOUDY DAY. HIGHS TODAY ONLY REACHING AROUND 50F WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER COOL NIGHT ONCE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN CU MIXES
OUT THIS EVENING. ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 8AM
TONIGHT GIVEN THE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, CLEARING SKIES THIS
EVENING, LINGERING THERMAL TROUGH, AND DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S. STILL NOT A SLAM DUNK ADVISORY AS AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
UP TOWARDS SE MI WHICH COULD BRING SOME MID CLOUD BACK IN EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION WINDS DON'T LOOK TO GO CALM AND WILL
START INCREASING SUNDAY MORNING. STILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT BEFORE TEMPS TREND WARMER TO
START THE WEEK.
THE WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BROADER UPPER
LOW (CENTERED TO THE NORTH) AND THROUGH LOWER MI SUNDAY. A
DEVELOPING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY PROVIDING
SOME FORCING ALONG WITH THETA E ADVECTION ALONG WITH INCREASING
WINDS AS LOW LEVEL JET RAMPS UP TO AROUND 35 KNOTS. BEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA LIKELY REMAINING DRY THROUGH THE DAY. MIXING DEPTHS TO AROUND
7KFT WILL TAP INTO THE LLJ WHICH WILL LEAD TO A GUSTY AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
PROVIDE A BOOST IN TEMPS WITH HIGHS BACK UP TO AROUND 60. THE WAVE
SHEARS APART OVERNIGHT WITH THE BEST FOCUS PASSING BOTH NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA SO SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN, BUT PROBABLY MORE
OF SCATTERED ACTIVITY AT BEST.
MONDAY WILL BE QUIET IN TERMS OF PRECIP AND WARM WITH TEMPS IN THE
70S AS THE UPPER LOW PIVOTS AROUND THE PATTERN BECOMES BRIEFLY ZONAL
WITH SLIGHT RIDGING UNTIL THE NEXT STRONGER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
REGION ON MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WARM SECTOR SLIDES INTO
SOUTHERN MI AFTER 00Z TUESDAY WITH THE NOSE OF THE NEXT LLJ MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE LINE. THIS LOOKS TO ACCOMPANY A LOW SPINNING UP
ALONG THE COLD FRONT RESULTING IN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY CLIMBS WITH MUCAPE REACHING 1000-1500
J/KG. PWATS RISE JUST ABOVE 1 INCH WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 50F. SPC DAY 3 OUTLOOK HAS SE MI IN A GENERAL
THUNDERSTORM RISK WITH SLIVER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF I94 IN A MARGINAL
RISK. MAIN RISK LOOKS TO BE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL BUT A FEW STRONG GUSTS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY, FINALLY PUSHING EAST OVERNIGHT SO
RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK. THERMAL TROUGH REMAINS
OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL DIRECT WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVES THROUGH THE AREA KEEPING CHANCES OF PRECIP AROUND.
MARINE...
A DIFFUSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES TODAY WHICH WILL RETAIN LIGHTER NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH LOW-END CHANCES FOR AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER. A WARM
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TOMORROW WHICH WILL BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST AS WIND SPEEDS ELEVATE THROUGH THE DAY. LOCALLY STRONGER
WINDS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE SAGINAW BAY THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE
HURON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH WITH LOCALIZED GUST POTENTIAL AROUND
30 KNOTS, BUT ALL NEARSHORE LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH OR ACHIEVE GUSTS
OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AS A
RESULT. WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING, BUT RETURN WITH SIMILAR INTENSITY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS
WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW AND MONDAY WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-
068>070-075-076-082-083.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ441>443.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LHZ421-422.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 10 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......AM
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