916
FXUS63 KDTX 031721
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
121 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- WINDY AND WARMER TODAY.
- MILD AND BREEZY MONDAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAINTAINS A HEALTHY DEGREE OF MID-CLOUD
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.
GUSTY SW WINDS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ADVECTION HOWEVER DRIER LOW LEVELS KEEPS INTENSITIES
RANGING FROM SPRINKLES TO A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS REEMERGE MONDAY MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
DISCUSSION...
A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN WILL EXPAND ACROSS LOWER MI LATER
THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT, ENHANCED BY STRENGTHENING LOW TO MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW. THE RESULT WILL BE INCREASING MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS. A MORE NOTABLE MID LEVEL THETA E RIDGE WILL EXPAND
INTO SE MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. THIS
MOISTURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY FAIRLY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES
OF 7.5 TO 8 C/KM. DESPITE THIS, MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE WARM
700MB TEMPS CONTRIBUTING TO THESE LAPSE RATES WILL FORM A WEAK CAP
ON POTENTIAL ELEVATED CONVECTION. THIS AND DRY AIR BELOW 800MB WILL
LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES TO LESS THAN 30 PERCENT LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH TONIGHT. A 925MB WIND MAX OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS WILL MOVE ACROSS
SRN MI EARLY THIS MORNING. DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER GROWTH INTO THIS
WIND FIELD WILL RESULT IN GUSTY WINDS TODAY, WITH 30 TO 35 KNOTS IN
THE MIXED LAYER SUPPORTIVE OF 30 TO 40 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING PEAK
DAYTIME HEATING. WIND GUSTS MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA
(GUSTS TO 45 MPH) ACROSS THE SAGINAW VALLEY AND THUMB WERE MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-45KNOTS ACROSS THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER. THE
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DRIVE 925MB TEMPS UP TOWARD +11C THIS
AFTERNOON, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE MIXING WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 60S.
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH
EXPANDING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NRN MINNESOTA. SUSTAINED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT WILL SUPPORT PERSISTENT WARM AIR
ADVECTION INTO SE MI MONDAY, PUSHING DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 70S.
WHILE STILL BREEZY, LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND MIXING DEPTHS ARE
FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE LOWER IN COMPARISON TO TODAY, LIKELY CAPPING
PEAK WIND GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH.
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY MONDAY
IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA TOWARD EVENING, MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF THE I-94 CORRIDOR. MID
LEVEL CAPPING AND LIMITED FORCING SUGGESTS LOW CONVECTIVE CHANCES.
WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED, ANY DEEP CONVECTION
THAT IS ABLE TO INITIATE WILL BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED STRONG WIND
GUSTS AND HAIL IN LIGHT OF THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS. MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES MON NIGHT AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH BUILDS
EASTWARD. THIS WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT INTO SE MI. WEAK
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT
INTO SE MI MONDAY NIGHT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS WILL
PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE THE
BETTER CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO PRECEDE THE STRONGER SHEAR
PROFILES, STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED
STRONG STORMS INTO THE NIGHT.
A MORE ORGANIZED DEEP LAYER FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST BY TUESDAY ACROSS SE MI RESULTING FROM AMPLIFICATION
OF THE LONG WAVE TROUGH, INCREASED BAROCLINICITY AND CORRESPONDING
UPPER JET DYANMICS. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE PLACES THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY EAST OF A BAD AXE TO HOWELL LINE
TUESDAY. GIVEN THE QUASI STATIONARY NATURE OF THE FRONT, THERE IS AT
LEAST A LOW CHANCE FOR SOME PERSISTENT RAIN TO PUSH TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO OR OVER AN INCH. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL COLD AIR WILL
BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES BY MIDWEEK, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 50S AND NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 30S THROUGH
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
MARINE...
A WARM FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH TODAY WHICH WILL SUSTAIN SOUTHWEST
WITH WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS. LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS WILL BE FOUND WITHIN THE SAGINAW BAY
THROUGH CENTRAL LAKE HURON GIVEN THE FAVORABLE FETCH. LOCALIZED GUSTS
AROUND 30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE BAY, WITH OTHER
NEARSHORE LOCATIONS SEEING GUST POTENTIAL ON THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25
KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
WIND SPEEDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, BUT RETURN
WITH SIMILAR INTENSITY DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TOMORROW ALONG WITH A
VERY LOW CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER.
HYDROLOGY...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS INCH. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REACH AN INCH GENERALLY ACROSS METRO
DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND POINTS SOUTH, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TOTALS WILL
EXCEED AN INCH AND A HALF. WHILE INITIALLY CONVECTIVE, THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HOURLY RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LIGHT.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ421-422-
441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LEZ444.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...SC
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SC
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