186
FXUS63 KDTX 031937
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
337 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- MILD AND BREEZY MONDAY. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT.
- SHOWERS EXPECTED TUESDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
WARM FRONT PASSED TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE DAYS
OF WARM ADVECTION WITH GUSTY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PASSING OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL OCCUR
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE REGION AS WE LIE IN BETWEEN THE COMPACT VORT
MAX TO THE NORTH AND A NARROW RIBBON OF VORTICITY STREAMING THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY. THERE IS A WEAK CONNECTION BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES
WITH SOME MID LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION LEADING TO A PERIOD OF CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH
THE MOISTURE PLUME AS IT ADVANCES THROUGH, THOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND
AT THE SURFACE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO ANY SHOWERS
THAT DEVELOP.
ADDITIONAL WARMING ON MONDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE SLIDES THROUGH
BRINGING 850MB TEMPS UP TO 10C INTO THE REGION. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND GOOD DEAL OF SUN WILL LEAD TO HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
WEATHER STARTS TO TAKE A TURN IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE
NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH DROPPING INTO THE MIDWEST PUSHES A COLD FRONT
TOWARD LAKE MI. THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE MID LEVEL
HEIGHT FIELD OVERHEAD TO TILT FROM ZONAL FLOW TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
DRAWING A SHORTWAVE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND
CLIPPING FAR SE LOWER MI. THIS WAVE WILL PULL AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS
NORTHWARD AROUND 00Z WITH MUCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. THERE WILL BE
GOOD SHEAR AROUND 40 KNOTS AND STRONG LAPSE RATES AS WELL. HIRES
MODELS ARE STARTING TO SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS BREAKING
THE CAP AND LIFTING UP THROUGH THE REGION SOUTH OF I94. THESE STORMS
WOULD BE CAPABLE OF STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. STRONGER LLJ THEN
LIFTS NORTH JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
SAGINAW BAY TO SOUTHERN LAKE MI WHICH IS EXPECTED TO FLARE UP WITH
ACTIVITY AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES WITH GOOD SHEAR IN PLACE. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ATOP A STABLE BL SO SEVERE
CHANCES WILL BE MINIMIZED.
THE FRONT WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO EXITING MI BY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE
STALLING. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT UP ALONG THE FRONT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON RESULTING IN A LONG DURATION RAINFALL OCCURING THROUGH
MOST OF THE DAY...FOR SOME LOCATIONS. LOOKS TO BE A FAIRLY SHARP
CUTOFF TO THE NW AS DRY AIR SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS COME DOWN A BIT IN TOTAL QPF FROM OVER AN INCH TO NOW
0.5-0.75 INCH.
TROUGHING HOLD THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK BRINGING A RETURN
TO THE BELOW NORMAL, 50 DEGREE HIGH TEMPS THROUGH THAT STRETCH.
THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AS WELL AS A FEW
WEAK WAVES ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA.
MARINE
BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY PRODUCING GUSTS ON
THE ORDER OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH THE ONLY CHANGE BEING AN EXTENSION OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY DURATION ACROSS WESTERN LAKE ERIE AND LAKE ST. CLAIR
AS ELEVATED GUST POTENTIAL LINGERS OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS LAKE HURON THROUGH TONIGHT. AFTER A
LULL IN GUSTS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS TOMORROW, BREEZY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUST
POTENTIAL REACHING AGAIN INTO THE 20-25 KNOTS RANGE, FAVORED ACROSS
THE SAGINAW BAY AND LAKE ST. CLAIR TO LAKE ERIE. RENEWED SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED. OTHERWISE A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY ALONG THE FRONT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOCUSED ACROSS LAKE ST. CLAIR AND LAKE ERIE, SOME
STRONGER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANY STRONGER STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AOA 34 KNOTS. WIND DIRECTION VEERS
TO THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
HYDROLOGY
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSIST INTO THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG A SLOW
MOVING COLD FRONT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TOTAL RAINFALL BETWEEN A QUARTER INCH
AND THREE QUARTERS INCH. THERE IS LOW TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE THAT
RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REACH AN INCH GENERALLY ACROSS METRO
DETROIT/ANN ARBOR AND POINTS SOUTH, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE TOTALS WILL
EXCEED AN INCH AND A HALF. WHILE INITIALLY CONVECTIVE, THE RAIN IS
FORECAST TO TRANSITION TOWARD A MORE STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP HOURLY RAINFALL RATES GENERALLY LIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 121 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2026
AVIATION...
ELEVATED MOISTURE ADVECTION MAINTAINS A HEALTHY DEGREE OF MID-CLOUD
ACROSS THE REGION HOWEVER THIS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 5KFT.
GUSTY SW WINDS ALREADY HAVE DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS
NEAR OR IN EXCESS OF 30KTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON TIED TO THE
AFOREMENTIONED ADVECTION HOWEVER DRIER LOW LEVELS KEEPS INTENSITIES
RANGING FROM SPRINKLES TO A BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER. WINDS GRADUALLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BEFORE BREEZY CONDITIONS REEMERGE MONDAY MORNING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR LHZ421-422.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR LHZ441>443.
LAKE ST CLAIR...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LCZ460.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR LEZ444.
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......AM
HYDROLOGY....SC
AVIATION.....KDK
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