126
FXUS63 KDTX 282243
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
643 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SUNNY AND WARMER FRIDAY.
- EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY DRY AIR WILL SUSTAIN CLEAR SKIES OTHER THAN
SOME CIRRUS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS WILL DECREASE STEADILY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOUR AS NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DRIFT SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, ALLOWING GENERALLY LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS
TO DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 238 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2026
DISCUSSION...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED, BLOCKED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL OFFER AN EXTENDED
STRETCH OF GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS CONSOLIDATING OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL KEEP
BROAD, CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE CONUS. WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS FEATURE MAINTAINS PERSISTENT
CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT, EFFECTIVELY ESTABLISHING AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF
DEEP LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE WITHIN LOW LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW
LOCALLY. NET RESULT IS A HIGH DEGREE OF INSOLATION POTENTIAL WITH
LIMITED CLOUD PRODUCTION TO FINISH THE WORK WEEK. MINOR, BRIEF
INCREASE IN UPPER HEIGHTS AFFORDS A MODEST WARMING TREND FRIDAY FROM
READINGS NOTED TODAY. HIGHS PROJECTED TO ARRIVE WITHIN THE 80 TO 85
DEGREE RANGE MOST LOCATIONS. NOTEWORTHY HEIGHT FALLS TO THE EAST
WILL SEND A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
MORE THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE, GIVEN LACK OF BETTER MOISTURE QUALITY/DEPTH OR FORCED
ASCENT.
COOLER POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN PREVAILING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST
FLOW SATURDAY, MOST NOTABLY DOWNSTREAM OF THE COLDER LAKE HURON
WATERS GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW. HIGHS MID 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES.
DRY AND SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE
RETAKES CONTROL SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LITTLE VARIATION IN
CONDITIONS UNTIL THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK, WHEN UPPER RIDGING
BEGINS TO TAKE GREATER INFLUENCE. THIS LIKELY LEADS TO SOME DEGREE
OF A WARMING TREND, WHILE STILL LIMITING RAINFALL POTENTIAL.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE PRESENCE OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. LOW PRESSURE
THEN TRACKS FROM QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY EVENING, DRAWING A
COLD FRONT SOUTH AND CAUSING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY BRIEFLY BRING WINDS AND
WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE FLOW
ALIGNS WITH FETCH. HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH FROM ONTARIO INTO THE
WEEKEND, REINFORCING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AND QUIET MARINE
CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE BAY.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...MR
MARINE.......MV
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