123
FXUS63 KDTX 291112
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
712 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
- WARM AND SUNNY TODAY, THEN BECOMING COOLER AND BREEZIER THIS
EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.
- TEMPERATURES RETREAT TO NEAR-NORMALS OVER THE WEEKEND, AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
DEEP COLUMN RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE FROM DULUTH TO TOLEDO
WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A DRY AIRMASS
WITH STABLE CONDITIONS BETWEEN 3.0 AND 15.0 KFT AGL WILL THWART ANY
BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECASTED TO PUSH
INTO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN OFF OF LAKE HURON BETWEEN 3-12Z TONIGHT.
LIGHT WEST WINDS TODAY WILL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS THAT EXTEND THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY OFFER NIL
MEASURABLE QPF.
BENIGN WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN THROUGHOUT THE
BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN. THE
COMPLEMENTARY RIDGE AND TROUGH FEATURES STAY LOCKED-IN OVER EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.
CURRENTLY, THE FORECAST AREA RESIDES ALONG THE INTERFACE BETWEEN THE
586 DAM 500 MB RIDGE STRETCHING FROM MANITOBA TO FLORIDA, AND THE
WESTERN FLANK OF THE 538 DAM MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN
QUEBEC, WITHIN THE NORTHERN STREAM JET. FOR TODAY, CONFLUENT LOW-
LEVEL WNW FLOW LEADS TO WEAK WARM ADVECTION UNTIL MIDDAY. MIXING
DEPTHS WILL BE SUBJECTED TO A SHARP INVERSION NEAR 875 MB (4 KFT
AGL) WITH A TEMPERATURE OF AROUND 15C, SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER
70S TO NEAR 80F. GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT FALLS NUDGE IN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE DAY, CAUSING 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO
DEGRADE AND RECENTER TOWARD THE SOUTH. ONCE THE ANTICYCLONIC
INFLUENCE WANES, GRADIENT WINDS PICK UP BY LATE EVENING. A WEAK COLD
FRONT BACK-DOORS INTO THE REGION OFF LAKE HURON, BRINGING ABOUT
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONSTRICTION AND VEERING ENE FLOW. WITH
EXTENSIVE STATIC STABILITY AND PWATS NEAR 0.25 INCHES, HIGH
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. AREAS NORTH OF I-69
COULD SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP BELOW 50F BEFORE SUNRISE.
A LOWER COLUMN ANTICYCLONE TRACKS DUE SOUTH FROM HUDSON BAY SATURDAY
REINFORCING THE COOL AND STABLE AIRMASS. THIS ESTABLISHES A NEW
SURFACE HIGH (1025 MB) OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW-MID SINGLE DIGITS (CELSIUS)
LIMIT HIGHS TO WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS,
GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S SATURDAY. A ZONALLY ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS IS
EXPECTED TO EJECT SOUTHWARD FROM HUDSON BAY LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THETA-E ADVECTION APPEARS TOO WEAK TO CAPITALIZE ON THE GLANCING
LOBE OF CVA, WHICH FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF A PROLONGED DRY
FORECAST INTO NEXT WEEK. MINIMAL ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE PROFILES
SUGGESTS A PERSISTENCE-BASED APPROACH TO HIGHS/LOWS THROUGH THE
EARLY WEEK PERIOD (70S/50S), FOLLOWED BY AMPLIFICATION OF THE
LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS BY MID-WEEK WHEN HIGHS COULD REVISIT THE 80F
RANGE.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVERHEAD TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM
QUEBEC INTO NEW ENGLAND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW'S PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES, CAUSING BREEZY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. STRONGEST WINDS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 35
KNOTS OVERNIGHT ACROSS SAGINAW BAY WHERE NORTHEAST FLOW ALIGNS WITH
THE FETCH OF THE BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW. THE INNER BAY
HEADLINE MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS FORECAST
TRENDS PLACE AFTERNOON GUSTS RIGHT AT 25 KNOTS. EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY AND QUIET WEATHER THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN FROM ONTARIO.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...KGK
MARINE.......MV
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