979
FXUS63 KDTX 291845
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
245 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLY COOL WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AS THE
PW VALUE CAME IN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH A 700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSION NEAR 50 C.
A DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. PRONOUNCED SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN; THE EURO INDICATES 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 6-8 C ON SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
A COOL SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S.
OTHERWISE, A SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD, ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE.
EURO ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BY
MID-WEEK.
MARINE
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO THE NE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CAUSING A BRIEF UPTICK IN
WINDS/WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH GALE FORCE OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY WHERE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE FETCH OF THE BAY. OTHERWISE, GUSTS
ARE CAPPED BELOW 30 KNOTS. WIND AND WAVE CONCERNS EASE BY SATURDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1248 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
AVIATION...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON GIVES
WAY TO A REINFORCING COLD FRONT TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WITH MINIMAL
WEATHER IMPACT. THE FRONT MOVES DOWN FROM NORTHERN ONTARIO WITH A
BOOST FROM LAKE HURON IN BACKDOOR FASHION INTO SE MI AND ACROSS THE
TERMINAL CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT 02Z TO 06Z TONIGHT. IT BRINGS A SHARP
WIND SHIFT FROM W TO NE GUSTING NEAR 20 KNOTS AS THE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT GIVEN THE PRECEDING HIGH PRESSURE IS DRY ENOUGH FOR JUST A
BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND NEAR ZERO RAIN POTENTIAL. WIND REMAINS
FROM THE NE DURING SATURDAY WITH CONTINUED GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS UNTIL
SETTLING LOWER MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY
FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....BT
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