747
FXUS63 KDTX 300331
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1131 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- PLEASANT AND COMFORTABLY COOL WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A MODEST
WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
BY TAF ISSUANCE, THE COLD FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED ACROSS THE
TERMINALS, WITH POST FRONTAL NORTHEAST WINDS LASTING THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE STRENGTH OF THE POST FRONTAL WINDS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
WIND GUSTS AROUND OR OVER 20 KNOTS THROUGH DAYBREAK AS COLD AIR
ADVECTION INHIBITS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NOCTURNAL STABLE LAYER. EAST-
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL UNDERGO SOME SLIGHT DECREASE DURING THE DAY AS ANOTHER HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEMS EXPANDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL INHIBIT LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, EVEN WITHIN
THE POST FRONTAL COLDER AIR.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2026
DISCUSSION...
12Z DTX SOUNDING REVEALED AN EXTREMELY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE, AS THE
PW VALUE CAME IN A QUARTER OF AN INCH, WITH A 700 MB DEW PT
DEPRESSION NEAR 50 C.
A DRY PATTERN WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD AS HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN PERSISTS. THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN WILL BE CAUGHT IN BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
EASTERN CANADA/NEW ENGLAND. PRONOUNCED SURFACE HIGH OVER HUDSON BAY,
WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES, WILL
ALLOW FOR COOLER AIR TO ADVECT IN; THE EURO INDICATES 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWERING TO 6-8 C ON SATURDAY. THIS SETS THE STAGE FOR
A COOL SATURDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING MINS TO FALL INTO THE 40S.
OTHERWISE, A SLOW WARMING TREND DEVELOPS NEXT WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVERHEAD, ALBEIT IN A WEAKENED STATE.
EURO ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS SUGGEST HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S BY
MID-WEEK.
MARINE...
SURFACE PRESSURE HAS FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY IN ADVANCE OF A COLD
FRONT THAT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. WINDS
VEER TO THE NE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, CAUSING A BRIEF UPTICK IN
WINDS/WAVES TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST
GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH GALE FORCE OVER INNER SAGINAW BAY WHERE
NORTHEAST FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE FETCH OF THE BAY. OTHERWISE, GUSTS
ARE CAPPED BELOW 30 KNOTS. WIND AND WAVE CONCERNS EASE BY SATURDAY
MORNING, ALTHOUGH LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS MAY REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE BAY. HIGH PRESSURE FILLS IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT, LEADING TO AN EXTENDED STRETCH OF DRY AND FAVORABLE MARINE
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR LHZ421-422-441-442.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....SC
DISCUSSION...SF
MARINE.......MV
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