723
FXUS63 KDTX 310740
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
340 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK.
- SEASONABLE CONDITIONS EARLY THIS WEEK BECOMING MUCH WARMER AND
HUMID BY FRIDAY
DISCUSSION
THE MUCH BALLYHOOED UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE
OVER CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA AND WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ANY
MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A THINNING OF THE OMEGA BLOCK IS FORECASTED ON MONDAY
AS DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENCROACH ON SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM
THE NORTH AND EAST. HOWEVER, HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FOR THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS THE LARGE AMPLITUDE RIDGE NUDGES EASTWARD AND
EVENTUALLY TAKES ON MORE OF A REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION. TO PUT THIS
RIDGING EVENT INTO PERSPECTIVE, THE NAEFS DATA SUPPORTS A HIGH END
TO CLIMATOLOGICAL EXTREME EVENT WITH, THE HEIGHTS (TUE-WED) AT ALL
OF THE LEVELS, 1000-850-700-500MB AT THE 99.5 PERCENTILE. IT ISN'T
THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONE OR MSLP THAT HAS BEEN UNPRECEDENTED ITS BEEN
THE DEPTH OF THE ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PERSISTED AND ENCAPSULATED THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SO, AS THIS RIDGE FINALLY FOLDS OVER THE
REGION, MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES CLIMB SIGNIFICANTLY RESULTING IN
DAYTIME HIGHS SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.
THE MAIN WEATHER NARRATIVE FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXTREMELY
COMFORTABLE WEATHER WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 70S. HUMIDITY LIKELY BECOMES NOTICEABLE LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING TOWARDS 60 DEGREES. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS WITH THE NEXT CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS
THERE IS SOME TIMING DIFFERENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE REESTABLISHMENT
OF ZONAL FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST FORECAST BRINGS
CHANCE POPS INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY AND FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
MARINE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVERHEAD, ENSURING ANOTHER DAY OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK COLD FRONT
THEN SETTLES ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT, REORGANIZING
FLOW OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH 25 KNOTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON OVER SAGINAW BAY WHERE FLOW ALIGNS WITH THE FETCH OF THE
BAY, BUT SHOULD HOLD BELOW 20 KNOTS ELSEWHERE. EXTENDED STRETCH OF
DRY WEATHER THEN PERSISTS THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 142 AM EDT SUN MAY 31 2026
AVIATION...
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME
DECAYING CIRRUS WILL LOITER TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE, WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE EARLY PORTIONS OF SUNDAY. LIGHT
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL EMERGE SUNDAY MORNING. TOWARD THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE BIG WATERS WILL RELEASE AND START
APPROACH THE TERMINALS.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* NONE.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......MV
AVIATION.....MANN/KGK
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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