323
FXUS63 KDTX 021652
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1252 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE CONTINUES THROUGH MID WEEK.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY WEEK BECOME WARMER AND MUCH MORE
HUMID INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
REGION REMAINS UNDER HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD
MAINTAINING VFR SKIES WITH ONLY PASSING HIGH CLOUD AND POCKETS OF
DIURNAL CUMULUS. MODEST NORTHEAST WINDS PERSIST INTO THE EVENING
WITH PEAK GUSTS BETWEEN 15-20KTS. WINDS TURN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AS THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OVERHEAD.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TOMORROW.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
PERSIST A FEW MORE DAYS THIS WEEK ALBEIT MORPHING FROM THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OMEGA FEATURE INTO MORE A REX BLOCK CONFIGURATION. THE
GREATEST GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT CENTER IN A DEEP PORTION OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CENTERS OVER LOWER MICHIGAN LATE TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOST RECENT NAEFS DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 99.5 PERCENTILE OR
CLIMATOLOGICAL MAXIMUMS FOR GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 1000 AND
500MB FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 06Z THURSDAY. THE NET
RESULT WILL BE WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WITH DAYTIME READINGS
CLIMBING INTO THE 80S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN THE REX BLOCK FLATTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS AN ENTRANCE REGION TO A WEAK JETLET SETTLES
INTO LOWER MICHIGAN. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A FAIRLY
UNORGANIZED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPING UNDER THE JET ENTRANCE REGION
AS GREAT PLAINS MOISTURE/LATENT HEATING BEGINS TO STREAMLINE
EASTWARD. LOW CONFIDENCE CONTINUES FOR BOTH WHEN PRECIPITATION
CHANCES WILL BEGIN HERE ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN AND AS TO HOW LONG
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR ASCENT WILL STALL OUT. SHOWER AND THUNDESTORM
CHANCES WILL BE NEEDED AT MINIMUM FOR THE LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
TIME PERIOD. LOW CONFIDENCE ON CHARACTER OF CONVECTION AS ALOT WILL
DEPEND ON STORM SCALE MESOSCALE COMPLEX DYNAMICS. THE MAIN NARRATIVE
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE MUCH WARMER WITH A LOT
MORE HUMIDITY.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY, WITH
NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE THIS EVENING-WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER REACHES THE OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY, CAUSING WINDS TO
ORGANIZE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS PERSIST UNTIL
FRIDAY-THIS WEEKEND WHEN THE GOVERNING RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THIS WILL
BE THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....KDK
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......MV
YOU CAN OBTAIN YOUR LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECASTS ONLINE
AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page