070
FXUS63 KDTX 030353
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1153 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM THROUGH MID WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER LOWER MI LATE
TONIGHT. IT COMBINES WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE ALSO MOVING OVERHEAD
FROM THE MIDWEST TO MAINTAIN VFR UNDER THIN CIRRUS ACCOMPANIED BY
CALM WIND. A FEW HIGH BASED CUMULUS AND/OR ALTOCU DEVELOP DURING THE
AFTERNOON WHILE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND GAINS A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT
WITH SOME LAKE BREEZE MODIFICATION LATE IN THE DAY AND WEDNESDAY
EVENING.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 334 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2026
DISCUSSION...
A SEASONABLY STRONG 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES TODAY AND TOMORROW, SUPPORTING CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE,
LIGHT WINDS, AND A DRY/STABLE COLUMN. UNIDIRECTIONAL NORTHEAST FLOW
THROUGH THE LOW-LEVELS DID PRODUCE STRONG 0-3KM LAPSE RATES WHICH
HAVE AIDED IN SPARSE CU DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE IRISH HILLS AND METRO
REGION. THE FEW-SCT CLOUD DECK WILL ERODE AROUND SUNSET, LEADING TO
CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RIGHT AROUND 50 DEGREES. THE OVERALL
LONGWAVE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN WILL START TO BREAK DOWN TOMORROW AS
THE MEANDERING CLOSED LOW SYSTEM ACROSS THE ROCKIES RELEASES
EASTWARD AHEAD OF A DEEPENING PACIFIC NW TROUGH. THIS WILL FOLD THE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW AND WILL GREATLY REDUCE
AMPLIFICATION OF THE WAVE. THIS WILL MUTE THE INFLUENCE OF NORTHEAST
FLOW TOMORROW AND WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO PUSH INTO THE 80S UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF SOME TRANSLUCENT CIRRUS THAT
WILL STREAM IN THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ON
THURSDAY WHICH FOLD THE WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE PLAINS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES, PUSHING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THE NEXT LIKELY CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL ENTER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ONCE THE PACIFIC NW WAVE EXTENDS INTO THE
MIDWEST, EVENTUALLY PUSHING THE TROUGH INTO MICHIGAN. CONFIDENCE
TURNS LOWER SURROUNDING POP CHANCES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK PENDING THE
ARRIVAL AND PLACEMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORIGINATING FROM
TEXAS. THIS IS PROJECTED TO STALL OUT SOUTH OF MICHIGAN AS HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS FROM CANADA INTO MICHIGAN.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE SITS ATOP THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGHOUT TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD, LIGHT WINDS FROM THE
NORTHEAST BECOME VARIABLE. BY THURSDAY, WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
ARE EXPECTED AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE GREATEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BRING BREEZY CONDITIONS AS WELL.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......MV/TO
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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