083
FXUS63 KDTX 031104
AFDDTX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
704 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN DEVELOPS FRIDAY AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
DEEP COLUMN HIGH PRESSURE WILL CENTER OVER LOWER MICHIGAN TODAY AND
TONIGHT. DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST 5.0 KFT AGL AND STRONG STATIC
STABILITY BETWEEN 5.0 AND 20.0 KFT AGL WILL ENSURE VFR CONDITIONS.
NOT EXPECTING MUCH CLOUD AT ALL. VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON.
D21/DTW CONVECTION...NO THUNDERSTORMS ANTICIPATED.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES
* NONE.
PREV DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 314 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
DISCUSSION...
LENGTHY QUIET STRETCH OF WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY AS THE CENTER OF
THE PERSISTENT SURFACE HIGH PASSES OVER THE GREAT LAKES THIS
MORNING. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY AND
OVERNIGHT REACHING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY WITH ONLY LIGHT NORTHERLY
WINDS ALOFT TO START THE DAY BUT THE SLOW DRIFT SOUTHWARD WILL ALLOW
FOR A WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY WIND TO DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY. LOOKING
ALOFT, THE BLOCKING PATTERN IS BREAKING WITH A STRONG WAVE PASSING
THROUGH CANADA WHICH WILL FLATTEN THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES WHILE FOLDING IT INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP DEVELOP
DEEPER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR INTO THE
REGION WITH 850MB TEMPS RISING OVER 10C, AFTER HOVERING IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS FOR A COUPLE DAYS, WHICH WILL HELP BOOST HIGH TEMPS
INTO THE 80S TODAY.
CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE, WILL BUMP
TEMPS UP FURTHER ON THURSDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WE'LL STAY
DRY YET AGAIN WITH DEWPOINTS POSSIBLY BREAKING 50F IN THE AFTERNOON
WHICH KEEPS HUMIDITY IN THE 30 PERCENT RANGE. WE STAY WARM ON FRIDAY
BUT A SLOW MOVING FRONT DROPPING TOWARD THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES
WILL HELP FOCUS MOISTURE ADVECTING ALONG IT ALONG WITH REMNANT
CONVECTIVE WAVES LATER FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA. THIS IS ALL COINCIDING
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRACKING OVER SATURDAY AS WELL. STACKED
RIDGING THEN MOVES BACK IN BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT SUNDAY WHICH
SHOULD DRY US BACK OUT. WE'LL SEE HOW LONG THE RIDGING CAN HOLD OVER
THE REGION BEFORE STALLED TROUGHING WEST OF LAKE MI FINALLY PUSHES
EAST, WHICH MAY NOT BE TIL LATER IN THE WEEK.
MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SIT ATOP THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY
INTO THURSDAY, THEN PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A COLD FRONT COMES
THROUGH ON FRIDAY. NORTH LAKE HURON IS EXPECTING RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD, WHILE SOUTHERN LAKE HURON, LAKE ST. CLAIR
AND THE COAST OF LAKE ERIE WILL EXPERIENCE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
OUT OF THE NORTH. THIS WILL THEN TURN INTO A NORTHERLY FLOW FOR ALL
MARINE AREAS AS WE APPROACH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AS OUR COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THIS WILL BRING US OUR NEXT
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS
OVER THE AREA.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.
AVIATION.....CB
DISCUSSION...DRK
MARINE.......MV/TO
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AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/DETROIT.
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